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Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

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Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#91

Post by MattGaiser »

opportune wrote: post #28

I imagine a huge cash crunch is coming up soon as deferred payments come home to roost. We can’t continue kicking the can down the road forever. If people are over leveraged or insolvent we have to bear the pain eventually. It’s part of the credit cycle and it’s how savers get their foot in the door regarding asset ownership. Otherwise we will have basically embraced some absurd worst-of-both-worlds kind of socialism…

For mortgages I don't see why the deferrals are a problem as long as they are just tacked on to the end of the mortgage.

It is going to be a major problem for renters.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#92

Post by entangledqubit »

opportune wrote: post #28

I imagine a huge cash crunch is coming up soon as deferred payments come home to roost. We can’t continue kicking the can down the road forever. If people are over leveraged or insolvent we have to bear the pain eventually. It’s part of the credit cycle and it’s how savers get their foot in the door regarding asset ownership. Otherwise we will have basically embraced some absurd worst-of-both-worlds kind of socialism…

I've been expecting a "cash crunch" too but the Fed seems happy to keep making me wrong.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#93

Post by MattGaiser »

Avicebron wrote: post #69
ed25519FUUU wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You may be biased as a WFH/silicon valley type (continuing to produce income despite shelter at home). The median checking account balance was $3,400 in 2019, and that was before COVID19 struck. There's a lot of people who were already barely hanging on, and now covid and demonstrations have pulled the rug out from under them. We're only 2 months in. Things will get worse before they get better. 1. https://www.valuep…

Yeah, most of the US is one medical emergency from absolute financial ruin. It's amazing to see how disconnected the economy is from the lived experience of the majority of people.

> Yeah, most of the US is one medical emergency from absolute financial ruin.

Most Americans have health insurance of some form.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#95

Post by thorwasdfasdf »

ngngngng wrote: post #47

I'm so extremely grateful that I accepted section 8 tenants into my rental units. Most of these tenants have nearly all of their payment covered by the government and they just have to pay $100 or $200 on top of that to cover what the government won't. These tenants are often not accepted by landlords because they're thought to cause more issues. Mine are great. They keep the units spotless, mow the lawn for me on my…

you have to be careful. I've noticed Section 8 neighborhoods tend to attract a lot of Crime.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#96

Post by londons_explore »

nly wrote: post #35
bshipp wrote: post #17

This is just the start. Landlords would be smart to work with tenants to share some of the loss and renegotiate temporary adjustments to keep at least some revenue coming in because the heady days of high demand for rental units is likely behind us for a while. It'll be worse in downtown areas. I've heard from multiple firms that are looking at downsizing their expensive office space and continuing to allow employees…

Why do you say this? By all accounts, in the UK at least, rental demand has boomed compared to last since lockdown restrictions eased https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52847319

Leases are typically for a fixed period, so it's really the integral of these charts that matters - how many people are currently in a rental.

I suspect that number is still a long way below normal, because lots of people are moving in with friends or family (students, young professionals, etc.).

My experience in London is the ratio of people looking for a house to houses advertised is the lowest I've ever seen in 10 years.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#97

Post by unchocked »

ed25519FUUU wrote: post #14
mullingitover wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Savings rates are through the roof right now, I would worry more about a deflation spiral.

You may be biased as a WFH/silicon valley type (continuing to produce income despite shelter at home). The median checking account balance was $3,400 in 2019, and that was before COVID19 struck. There's a lot of people who were already barely hanging on, and now covid and demonstrations have pulled the rug out from under them. We're only 2 months in. Things will get worse before they get better. 1. https://www.valuep…

The QEternity money being discussed is going into checking accounts well above the median.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#98

Post by diebeforei485 »

dheera wrote: post #49
cft wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In California for example, due to state-wide rent control, it's very dangerous for a landlord to lower rents. I would rather offer 6 months free rent than lock into permanent nonadjustable lower rent situation.

At the same time maybe it's time for landlords who have been sitting in armchairs swimming in cash to start giving back to the people who haven't been able to afford to live here?

Particularly in California -- it makes no sense for landlords to pay artificially low property taxes. Prop 13 should be reformed so you pay property taxes on the market rate of the property if you're renting it out.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#99

Post by losteric »

viklove wrote: post #54
MattGaiser wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

QE has been going on for years since 2008. Still waiting on that inflation. https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-i... QE contains an easy break on inflation. If it starts surging, the market can just have the assets the fed holds added back to it.

You're looking in the wrong place. QE doesn't go to families, so it doesn't increase the cost of milk, apples, or eggs. It went to the wealthiest banks and corporations, and wouldya look at that -- asset prices are inflated, "startups" have absurd valuations, and the wealth gap is larger than ever before. The inflation is there, clear as day. You're just not looking in the right place and you think you're so smart be…

THIS, so much this ... for years people said bottom-up stimulus plans would inevitably cause inflation. Injecting the money on top changes little, now it's just trickle-down inflation.

(and if this doesn't hold, I would love to understand why)

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#100

Post by Avicebron »

MattGaiser wrote: post #93
Avicebron wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, most of the US is one medical emergency from absolute financial ruin. It's amazing to see how disconnected the economy is from the lived experience of the majority of people.

> Yeah, most of the US is one medical emergency from absolute financial ruin. Most Americans have health insurance of some form.

If I have 3,400 to my name and my deductible is 2,000 (common from what I've seen). And my rent is 1,500 due next week, I'm not in good shape financially.
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