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New Rules for the New Internet Bubble

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Re: New Rules for the New Internet Bubble

#11

Post by csomar »

I think start-ups needs to get physical in some ways. Way too much information, nowadays. While Facebook and RSS feeds me like food does, I get enough of it that I don't want to try the next app. There is too much apps and too much information.

By physical, I mean startups like Wake Mate. They make use of technology, the web, mobiles, your computer... but they give you something more than just virtual-information. Something physical is happening. There is an important added value here.

Re: New Rules for the New Internet Bubble

#12

Post by tspare »

I think we are in a bubble in the sense that none of this family of companies (facebook, zynga, groupon, twitter) increases the overall productivity of society as a whole (or even their user base for that matter) and yet still garnering such high valuations. Whereas if you look at the last generation of tech companies (especially google) did in fact increase the productivity of the overall society.

I think the overall emphasis on marketing is an outcome of commoditization of software. In an earlier hn news item, OReilly talked about the thing that is adjacent to whatever is commoditized becomes valuable. I think in the case of software commoditization, that adjacency is data. User data has become much more valuable because it is now the biggest moat that can protect a tech business. Its no longer the software and hardware The more ability you have to collect and monitize the data, the more defensible your business becomes. The only way to collect more user data is to have an effective funnel driven by marketing.

Thats my 2 cents anyway.

Re: New Rules for the New Internet Bubble

#14

Post by erikstarck »

tspare wrote: post #12

I think we are in a bubble in the sense that none of this family of companies (facebook, zynga, groupon, twitter) increases the overall productivity of society as a whole (or even their user base for that matter) and yet still garnering such high valuations. Whereas if you look at the last generation of tech companies (especially google) did in fact increase the productivity of the overall society. I think the overal…

I disagree. What Twitter and Facebook both do is decrease the cost for new ideas to spread - HUGE value to society.

Twitter and Facebook are my primary news sources - and I'm not alone. I doubt the protesters in the Arab world would agree when you say Facebook and Twitter adds no value to their life.

Re: New Rules for the New Internet Bubble

#15

Post by tspare »

erikstarck wrote: post #14
tspare wrote: post #12

I think we are in a bubble in the sense that none of this family of companies (facebook, zynga, groupon, twitter) increases the overall productivity of society as a whole (or even their user base for that matter) and yet still garnering such high valuations. Whereas if you look at the last generation of tech companies (especially google) did in fact increase the productivity of the overall society. I think the overal…

I disagree. What Twitter and Facebook both do is decrease the cost for new ideas to spread - HUGE value to society. Twitter and Facebook are my primary news sources - and I'm not alone. I doubt the protesters in the Arab world would agree when you say Facebook and Twitter adds no value to their life.

Yes, the Arab protester does show the potential of facebook/twitter for productive use. However from my point of view, facebook and twitter will be more like TV. On the surface it looks like it has a great potential for spreading of ideas, but I don't think it would actually reach that potential where it actually improves the overall productivity of society. I hope I am proved wrong...

Re: New Rules for the New Internet Bubble

#16

Post by dminor »

It doesn't look like a bubble on the scale of previous bubbles because the general public is largely uninvolved (from an investing standpoint). If it popped now, the burned VCs and angels wouldn't even make the local news.

On the other hand, if the IPO market heats up coincident with a strong economy, then watch out.

Re: New Rules for the New Internet Bubble

#18

Post by dave1619 »

dminor wrote: post #16

It doesn't look like a bubble on the scale of previous bubbles because the general public is largely uninvolved (from an investing standpoint). If it popped now, the burned VCs and angels wouldn't even make the local news. On the other hand, if the IPO market heats up coincident with a strong economy, then watch out.

I think the IPO will heat up with LinkedIn, Pandora, Zynga, Facebook, etc. With all the money made, what will people do with it? They will be looking to reinvest. This drives up valuation. This "bubble" seems like it's being fueled by real money (money made by profitable companies) in the hands of investors and that's what makes it different.

Re: New Rules for the New Internet Bubble

#19

Post by icey »

dreamux wrote: post #17
icey wrote: post #13

What's the likelihood we're in a bubble if everyone says we're in one and investors continue to pour money into tech?

People aren't always rational, especially with money. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool

I wonder how bad the first .com bubble was for big investment firms in toto.

I know it was bad for the market, but how bad was it really for the investors?

Re: New Rules for the New Internet Bubble

#20

Post by brianbreslin »

dminor wrote: post #16

It doesn't look like a bubble on the scale of previous bubbles because the general public is largely uninvolved (from an investing standpoint). If it popped now, the burned VCs and angels wouldn't even make the local news. On the other hand, if the IPO market heats up coincident with a strong economy, then watch out.

well the ipo market heating up would then in turn involve the general public. imagine people clamoring for facebook stock? coupled with resurging economy, you get an interesting bubble action, as people will invest more than they can afford to and risk more than they should.
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