Declining worker power vs. rising monopoly power: explaining recent macro trends • Hacker News Board

Re: Declining worker power vs. rising monopoly power: explaining recent macro trends

#141

Post by lotsofpulp » Wed, Jun 03, 2020, 4:59 PM UTC

brenden2 wrote: post #82

lotsofpulp wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The big chains were suffering outside of a handful of affluent neighborhoods in all cities even in good times, I don’t see why this wouldn’t be a problem. Margins are low, and consumers’ ability to spend is low, so raising prices might not be possible leaving closing down as the only option.

If you don't run a viable business, should your business continue to exist? Which one do you want, socialism or capitalism? In a capitalist system, failed businesses are allowed to fail and don't get free money from the government.

The discussion is about businesses that suffer losses from being vandalized or robbed. No one can run a viable business in that kind of environment.

Re: Declining worker power vs. rising monopoly power: explaining recent macro trends

#142

Post by alexose » Wed, Jun 03, 2020, 5:00 PM UTC

I find it very disappointing that the most reliably lucrative career arc for a programmer nowadays is to get hired by a tech giant and stay there as long as possible. And the second most is probably to go to work for a company that could get gobbled up by a tech giant.

I've made a career out of small startups, and I wouldn't trade it for a thing. On the other hand, if I'd gone to work for Amazon straight out of college, I'd probably have a boat by now.

Re: Declining worker power vs. rising monopoly power: explaining recent macro trends

#143

Post by zeroonetwothree » Wed, Jun 03, 2020, 5:04 PM UTC

alexose wrote: post #142

I find it very disappointing that the most reliably lucrative career arc for a programmer nowadays is to get hired by a tech giant and stay there as long as possible. And the second most is probably to go to work for a company that could get gobbled up by a tech giant. I've made a career out of small startups, and I wouldn't trade it for a thing. On the other hand, if I'd gone to work for Amazon straight out of colle…

Well yeah usually the more fun job pays less. That’s just basic economics. Life is all about trade offs.

Re: Declining worker power vs. rising monopoly power: explaining recent macro trends

#144

Post by AWildC182 » Wed, Jun 03, 2020, 5:06 PM UTC

rapsey wrote: post #89

altvali wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you back that up with data? I'm curious to know by how much and how you reached that conclusion.

I would like to see someone back up the data with regards to automation. Why is the burden of truth on the other side? Fact of the matter is Chinese factories that produce the world's gadgets employ millions. This is reality and not some mythical fully automated factories. Globalism made the very poor in China/Mexico/etc. richer, created their middle class and it made the very rich in US/EU even richer at the cost of…

While tangential, it should be noted that creating jobs in Mexico and Canada will probably always be a net good for the US even if it means some net loss of jobs in the near term. Being closely connected with populous neighbors whom you can enrich such that they can buy your stuff will vastly strengthen the US's position as well as the NA bloc. We want manufacturing in mexico because we're connected by literal rail lines and can ship products back and forth far more readily and in an environmentally friendly way. Further we have mutual interests in terms of policy and defense.

This may sound controversial but it's likely the only way forward for the US to compete with China long term. Trying to ostracize our neighbors and go it alone against a country 4x our size is not a geopolitically sound move.

Re: Declining worker power vs. rising monopoly power: explaining recent macro trends

#145

Post by BurningFrog » Wed, Jun 03, 2020, 5:07 PM UTC

pydry wrote: post #81

BurningFrog wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is really wrong. Destroying retail will just destroy retail. When it's gone it's gone. If you think shopkeepers control the Police, you are hopelessly confused.

Gucci doesn't control the police, no. People who shop at Gucci do. Do you think that they are not going to see the smashing of their favorite shop as an implicit threat against them personally? Gucci is a powerful symbol of unchecked gaudy wealth as much as it is a retail establishment. The handbags themselves aren't really the point, which they'd be the first to admit to.

We disagree on several things:

I'm not sure anyone controls the police. They look a lot like self ruling autonomous entities to me. The mayor of New York, supposedly their boss, is in a conflict with NYPD, and is mostly losing, from what I hear.

The current "looting" is in no way confided to Gucci type stores. All retail with anything of value is being plundered.

But even in a world where the gaudy rich control the police, and only their favorite stores were destroyed, I can't imagine that leads to police reform.

If people attack something you hold dear and makes demands on you, few people just give in. The normal reaction is to fight back as hard as you can, ignoring costs, until your enemy is defeated. I offer the US reaction to 9/11 as an example.

In your model, the Gucci customers are extremely powerful, so they can mount very strong counter attacks.

Re: Declining worker power vs. rising monopoly power: explaining recent macro trends

#146

Post by AnimalMuppet » Wed, Jun 03, 2020, 5:08 PM UTC

zozbot234 wrote: post #96

MiroF wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We're already seeing agent provocateurs in the current protests. White nationalists are purposely trying to incite violent riots throughout the U.S. as part of their "accelerationist" plans. The amount that this is actually happening is vastly overstated. I've watched this narrative blow up within 48 hours, but the reality is that a lot of the "looting" is from frustrated, angry, low-income people. In no way is tha…

Angry and frustrated people will always be vulnerable to provocation. We can't pretend that away, but we can't wish that away either. So both claims could be true in some sense, but agent provocateurs (acting under fictitious monikers such as "Antifa", "Anonymous/4chan" or the like) are clearly playing a key role.

I'd like to see a source for your "clearly". In fact, if it's that clear, I'd like to see more than one.

Re: Declining worker power vs. rising monopoly power: explaining recent macro trends

#147

Post by brenden2 » Wed, Jun 03, 2020, 5:09 PM UTC

vinhboy wrote: post #111

brenden2 wrote: post #2

I think this plays into the current social unrest as well. People have been trying to separate the looters and protestors, but they seem to completely ignore the extreme inequality that exists throughout the US, especially in this period of high unemployment. People at the bottom have it bad, very bad. Being ignorant of that problem is just going to make it worse. Lashing out at fancy retailers in fancy neighbourhood…

It's easy to see this in graph form. 100K+ COVID deaths, 15%+ unemployment, wide spread homelessness, unaffordable housing crisis, riots and curfew in every major American city. Google DJIA to see a graph of how this has affected the wealthy... I am not blaming the players (well some), but the game is rigged.

The Federal Reserve injected trillions of free money into the markets, so naturally they went up.

Re: Declining worker power vs. rising monopoly power: explaining recent macro trends

#148

Post by htormey » Wed, Jun 03, 2020, 5:09 PM UTC

alexose wrote: post #142

I find it very disappointing that the most reliably lucrative career arc for a programmer nowadays is to get hired by a tech giant and stay there as long as possible. And the second most is probably to go to work for a company that could get gobbled up by a tech giant. I've made a career out of small startups, and I wouldn't trade it for a thing. On the other hand, if I'd gone to work for Amazon straight out of colle…

Was this ever not the case for the majority of software engineers?

Re: Declining worker power vs. rising monopoly power: explaining recent macro trends

#149

Post by nostrademons » Wed, Jun 03, 2020, 5:09 PM UTC

phkahler wrote: post #106

JamesBarney wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the cause and the effect is reversed. There is more money for investment now than ever before (due to an aging population, and increased inequality) which leads to both a low/zero interest rate, and lots of money for PE. If it was an artificially low interest rate we'd see wage inflation, as opposed to just asset inflation.

Interest rates are artificial. IMHO they are currently way too low. I dont even think the absolute rate is what affects the economy, its rate of change in interest rates that causes change. Declining rates stimulate the economy while rising ones act as a brake. The absolute level of the rates determine where money flows and inversely affects the price of big things like housing and cars. Low rates lead to inequality…

Nominal interest rates are artificial. Real interest rates (nominal rates - inflation) are not. If central banks set nominal interest rates too low you get inflation which negates the purchasing power of the borrowed money. That's what the grandparent poster was alluding to.

(The mathematical model - and the proof - for this is taught in most introductory macroeconomics courses. So is monetarism, which is the "declining rates = stimulus" that you mention.)

It's been a persistent question why the super-low nominal interest rates that central banks have set for the last decade haven't resulted in consumer inflation, and there's no consensus among experts for it. My personal theory is that it comes from the entry of China and other large developing nations into the world economy, which a.) has dramatically lowered the price of labor-intensive consumer manufacturing, offsetting much of the inflation caused by the large money supply and b.) changed the mix of savers in the world economy; Chinese people are much more in the habit of saving large fractions of their income than Americans are, which leads to a glut of savings, which lowers the real interest rate.

Re: Declining worker power vs. rising monopoly power: explaining recent macro trends

#150

Post by foobiekr » Wed, Jun 03, 2020, 5:10 PM UTC

alexose wrote: post #142

I find it very disappointing that the most reliably lucrative career arc for a programmer nowadays is to get hired by a tech giant and stay there as long as possible. And the second most is probably to go to work for a company that could get gobbled up by a tech giant. I've made a career out of small startups, and I wouldn't trade it for a thing. On the other hand, if I'd gone to work for Amazon straight out of colle…

Depending on when you graduated from college, that may or may not have fallen into the big company or startup bucket.

The delayed liquidity of the extremely long startup adolescence in recent years ("startups" that are 10+ years old and where almost all of the big value growth is in the rear-view mirror) is, IMHO, a big part of this.