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Declining worker power vs. rising monopoly power: explaining recent macro trends

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Re: Declining worker power vs. rising monopoly power: explaining recent macro trends

#91

Post by JamesBarney »

sokoloff wrote: post #84
jakozaur wrote: post #45

In almost all USA industries, there is increasing amount of consolidation. The top 4 companies' in almost any industry has a larger share of the total market: https://www.economist.com/briefing/2016/03/26/too-much-of-a-... Some consolidation is natural, but a huge part is caused by mergers and acquisitions (M&A) fulled by Private Equity. The M&A benefits the shareholders of participating companies at the expense of c…

What is PE fueled by? IMO, in large part by zero interest rate policies.

I think the cause and the effect is reversed. There is more money for investment now than ever before (due to an aging population, and increased inequality) which leads to both a low/zero interest rate, and lots of money for PE.

If it was an artificially low interest rate we'd see wage inflation, as opposed to just asset inflation.

Re: Declining worker power vs. rising monopoly power: explaining recent macro trends

#92

Post by MiroF »

zozbot234 wrote: post #61
pydry wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. I don't think it's a problem for them financially, it's just it's a a powerful symbol of the control that they have lost. That's why they'll pull out all of the stops including heavy handed propaganda, agent provocateurs, sending in the army (if it gets much worse) and even (finally, with gritted teeth), appeasement. Historically riots have often presaged regime change as it can uncover how dangerously exposed t…

We're already seeing agent provocateurs in the current protests. White nationalists are purposely trying to incite violent riots throughout the U.S. as part of their "accelerationist" plans. The regrettably widespread opinion that the original, peaceful protest against police brutality is per se violent and thus to be opposed is very much a false and racist claim.

> We're already seeing agent provocateurs in the current protests. White nationalists are purposely trying to incite violent riots throughout the U.S. as part of their "accelerationist" plans.

The amount that this is actually happening is vastly overstated. I've watched this narrative blow up within 48 hours, but the reality is that a lot of the "looting" is from frustrated, angry, low-income people.

In no way is that a racist claim - poverty and extreme inequality breeds desperation and anger and you can't pretend that away.

Re: Declining worker power vs. rising monopoly power: explaining recent macro trends

#93

Post by amaajemyfren »

TIL: NAIRU. Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment refers to a theoretical level of unemployment below which inflation would be expected to rise. It was first introduced as NIRU (non-inflationary rate of unemployment) by Franco Modigliani and Lucas Papademos in 1975, as an improvement over the "natural rate of unemployment" concept which was proposed earlier by Milton Friedman.

In the United States, estimates of NAIRU typically range between 5 and 6%.

Monetary policy conducted under the assumption of a NAIRU typically involves allowing just enough unemployment in the economy to prevent inflation rising above a given target figure. Prices are allowed to increase gradually and some unemployment is tolerated.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NAIRU

Re: Declining worker power vs. rising monopoly power: explaining recent macro trends

#94

Post by MiroF »

metalliqaz wrote: post #8
brenden2 wrote: post #2

I think this plays into the current social unrest as well. People have been trying to separate the looters and protestors, but they seem to completely ignore the extreme inequality that exists throughout the US, especially in this period of high unemployment. People at the bottom have it bad, very bad. Being ignorant of that problem is just going to make it worse. Lashing out at fancy retailers in fancy neighbourhood…

I know a few rich people. They basically want Trump to just shoot all the protesters. I don't see any message being received.

Most commentators here are the "rich people" in the scheme of American wealth inequality. Sure, not the tippy tippy top but members of the relatively affluent professional class.

Re: Declining worker power vs. rising monopoly power: explaining recent macro trends

#95

Post by Aunche »

brenden2 wrote: post #64
BurningFrog wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is really wrong. Destroying retail will just destroy retail. When it's gone it's gone. If you think shopkeepers control the Police, you are hopelessly confused.

The pandemic demonstrated that luxury retail is non-essential (you can still buy your Gucci bags online). When luxury retail was closed the world did not fall apart. Nobody is protesting because they can't shop at the Apple store.

Plenty of people complain that not enough stores like Target open up in low income areas and riots are only going to make this worse.

Re: Declining worker power vs. rising monopoly power: explaining recent macro trends

#96

Post by zozbot234 »

MiroF wrote: post #92
zozbot234 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're already seeing agent provocateurs in the current protests. White nationalists are purposely trying to incite violent riots throughout the U.S. as part of their "accelerationist" plans. The regrettably widespread opinion that the original, peaceful protest against police brutality is per se violent and thus to be opposed is very much a false and racist claim.

> We're already seeing agent provocateurs in the current protests. White nationalists are purposely trying to incite violent riots throughout the U.S. as part of their "accelerationist" plans. The amount that this is actually happening is vastly overstated. I've watched this narrative blow up within 48 hours, but the reality is that a lot of the "looting" is from frustrated, angry, low-income people. In no way is tha…

Angry and frustrated people will always be vulnerable to provocation. We can't pretend that away, but we can't wish that away either. So both claims could be true in some sense, but agent provocateurs (acting under fictitious monikers such as "Antifa", "Anonymous/4chan" or the like) are clearly playing a key role.

Re: Declining worker power vs. rising monopoly power: explaining recent macro trends

#97

Post by ErikVandeWater »

sokoloff wrote: post #84
jakozaur wrote: post #45

In almost all USA industries, there is increasing amount of consolidation. The top 4 companies' in almost any industry has a larger share of the total market: https://www.economist.com/briefing/2016/03/26/too-much-of-a-... Some consolidation is natural, but a huge part is caused by mergers and acquisitions (M&A) fulled by Private Equity. The M&A benefits the shareholders of participating companies at the expense of c…

What is PE fueled by? IMO, in large part by zero interest rate policies.

And tax policy, the specifics of which I am not qualified to explain. Someone else care to give their take?

Re: Declining worker power vs. rising monopoly power: explaining recent macro trends

#98

Post by rmrfstar »

jorblumesea wrote: post #90

Could it be that Larry Summers, proponent of deregulation and globalization, could have contributed to the destruction of the American worker? Ironically, no mention of those policies here.

There's also his 1998 attack on Brooksley Born and her proposal to regulate swaps. This proposal would have likely avoided or mitigated the 2008 crisis [1,2].

If I made an error that big, it would take some huge new insight for my research to be taken seriously again.

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/09/business/economy/09greens...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooksley_Born

Re: Declining worker power vs. rising monopoly power: explaining recent macro trends

#99

Post by pcurve »

jakozaur wrote: post #45

In almost all USA industries, there is increasing amount of consolidation. The top 4 companies' in almost any industry has a larger share of the total market: https://www.economist.com/briefing/2016/03/26/too-much-of-a-... Some consolidation is natural, but a huge part is caused by mergers and acquisitions (M&A) fulled by Private Equity. The M&A benefits the shareholders of participating companies at the expense of c…

Consolidation and vertical integration in healthcare space has bee pretty frightening. Feels like ordinary folks don’t know.

Re: Declining worker power vs. rising monopoly power: explaining recent macro trends

#100

Post by neutronicus »

danans wrote: post #58
nicoburns wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd argue the underlying cause is poor wealth distribution. There's lots of demand for labour, just not from people/companies/industries that have the means to the pay for it.

> There's lots of demand for labour, just not from people/companies/industries that have the means to the pay for it. I agree, but I think you mean income distribution and latent demand. The idea is that a lot of people would be consuming more goods and services if they weren't so cash strapped. Some of this is also affected by wealth distribution also, though.

Latent demand and wealth distribution interact strangely.

There's a bunch of work no one wants to do that gets dumped on people who need the money by everyone who can afford it. Elder Care is an obvious examples in the US, along with Child Care to a lesser extent. Lots of people consume free or budget versions of these services with which they're dissatisfied, and the root of their dissatisfaction is often that they can't pay enough to get the people providing the service to accept micromanagement, either because there aren't enough of them to implement it, or because they don't need the money enough to put up with it.

I guess the flat-wealth-distribution case is most people grudgingly using some economy-of-scale option leveraging the people with more patience for this kind of work, and a few control freaks either doing it themselves or economizing elsewhere to pay for a boutique option.

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