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Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

blog.cerebralab.com

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Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An authoritarian culture, however, can get work done much quicker while staying with a razor-sharp focus. The whole "democratic" decision-making process takes time and leads to a sequence of decisions spread throughout the time domain, which, taken together, might lead to a suboptimal result compared to what might be achieved by following the steps of an "enlightened benevolent dictator".

The problem is that due to the Peter principle ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_principle ) the people making the decisions are not competent to make them.

While this is certainly true, I've felt for a long time that the Peter principle is missing something very important:

"Doing the work," "managing the people doing the work," and "making the decisions about what work should be done" are not simply three ascending levels of expertise in one domain. They are three completely different domains. All good so far; the Peter principle takes this into account. Someone who's good at "doing" gets promoted to "managing", and doesn't have that skillset, and gets stuck there.

But it's also true in reverse. Just because a particular person is not good (or, more generally, less good than the best) at "doing", that doesn't mean they'd be bad at "managing". And just because someone is not good at "managing" doesn't mean they'd be bad at "deciding".

So you've got people who are good at working being promoted to manager, people who are good at working and managing being promoted to decider (which, I admit, is a bit more likely to work out than the others)—or, in many cases, people who were simply hired as managers being promoted to deciders—and then people who are good at managing or deciding, but only OK at working stuck at the worker level forever, unable to use their skills to help make things better.

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#122
post #62
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is definitely it. The best markets for selling software are the wealthy countries with their cultures. You need people in those countries that are part of those cultures to develop that software. So your employment market is limited by people within that culture that have that skill, which is why there is still a software development skills shortage. For purely technical things like kernel, database, network or…

But by this hypothesis, countries that have a different culture, but have similarly good programmers, would be able to produce a product suited to their own culture and thus out-compete the imported english version. But this rarely happens, if at all. So there's something that's still amiss.

And this seems to be fairly consistently true although there are other factors (e.g. does your culture attract talented people to technology or do they work elsewhere? Is there a consumer market for software in your country, etc.).

Other countries tend to use communication applications and platforms developed at or near their country (WhatsApp seems to be one of the bigger international exceptions from my experience).

There are a few exceptions to this where massive US companies have the scale to setup native teams in markets that understand culture well. Outside of that, it tends to fall apart. Some examples come to mind: Taobao, QQ, Baidu, Yahoo Japan, Weibo, VK, Aliexpress, Line, TikTok, etc.

(Note not all of these examples may be good because I'm not intimately familiar with all of them--since I too tend to use systems developed in my country).

Facebook, Google... they seem to span cultures probably due to providing services people fundamentally want to have across cultures. Large businesses typically have the capital to invest in addressing the cultural barriers and developing solutions.

Apple has a massive share world wide but when you look at Samsung in South Korea or Huawei in China, you'll see more adoption. Some of it may be nationalistic preference but I argue much of it is due to developing products/services that properly address demands in the market (which is tightly tied to culture).

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#123

>3. Most "good" programmers move to the high-income countries Your example of Germany and Switzerland in this case is less illustrative than say India and US - the poorest places automatically lose the best talent because the standard of living is not comparable even if you were earning the same remotely and had 1/10 living expenses. And then you factor in the quality of education available, projects available, etc.…

There is also visa issues, not wanting to be away from family, liking the life/culture of your home country... Surely it's easy from Germany to Switzerland or Canada to the US, when you're moving to a different continent it's a whole different experience.

Consider the opportunities for your children growing up in a developed country with an above average income vs. staying back home. It's the same networking effects you would benefit from by moving, but multiplied since they get them from the start.

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#124

Isn't open source proof that you don't need buts in seats in the same office? If open source projects can do it, why can't most businesses? What's the limiting factor in business? Is it communication? Is it antiquated management practices? Any organization that designs a system (defined broadly) will produce a design whose structure is a copy of the organization's communication structure. — Melvin E. Conway

Open source's organizational issue is that maintainers tend to prefer what's fun to work on, and often boring administrative work or difficult bugs go unfixed, especially if they have cut through multiple levels module ownership. Maintainers often start to resent the project ("burn out") because they're not paid but are expected to do these things that just aren't fun.

The real power of open source is that there are enough up and coming people who haven't learned this, and so if maintainers aren't supported it doesn't matter, there will be a new library to migrate to in the future by a new college grad, and this is one reason why things tend to be so unstable and short-lived.

The most successful open source projects have large corporate backing, like Kubernetes or Linux. And even Linux is a weird case, as a lot of architectural decisions and feature development are wonky because you often can't get the e.g. IO and Network subsystem guys to agree to the same idea.

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#125
post #65

Absolutely no swiss programmer is going to Germany, I can tell you that much. The demand is just that much higher than the supply.

In Germany the demand is also much higher than the supply.. I'd say there are other reasons why (most) swiss developers won't come to Germany.

I know btw one developer personally who went from Switzerland to work in Leipzig, Germany. He said he much preferred the openness of the people there to his home country.

In the end everyone is different and people move for different reasons.. not only because of salaries or taxes..

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another aspect of culture: how one-sided the communication is. Silicon Valley and Scandinavian cultures are very flat, so it is possible for "the man on the floor" to tell management that it doesn't work to put diesel into a gasoline car. In authoritarian cultures this would be a mistake as it's seen as embarrassing the management by saying they made a mistake. If you want to continue being employed then it is much b…

An authoritarian culture, however, can get work done much quicker while staying with a razor-sharp focus. The whole "democratic" decision-making process takes time and leads to a sequence of decisions spread throughout the time domain, which, taken together, might lead to a suboptimal result compared to what might be achieved by following the steps of an "enlightened benevolent dictator".

"An authoritarian culture, however, can get work done much quicker while staying with a razor-sharp focus."

Only in the extreme short term. In the medium term, the dictator inevitably ends up severed from reality by the inability of (true) data to flow back up to the authority, which results in their decisions becoming increasingly suboptimal over time.

This is the pragmatic argument in favor of free speech, really. If for the sake of argument we ignore moral and philosophical issues, the reason why free speech is important is that in its absence information does not properly flow back up to the authorities. Free information flow does not guarantee proper functioning of the system, but impeded information flow guarantees improper functioning. If your authority dictates the use of 4-inch long bolts in a place where there's only 2 inches of clearance, and nobody in the organization has the ability to feed back to the authority that information, the only possible outcomes are bad ones. This all compounds, too; the next dictate from the authority won't be able to take into account the fact that in order to fit the 4-inch bolt in, a new hole was cut in some vital structure that shouldn't be there, and some new bad decision will be made to add load to this structure, which will cause other effects. The authority ends up living in a fantasy land.

Note how this toy example seated entirely in engineering-space doesn't have any moral or philosophical component, and yet it is already sufficient to cause a bad outcome even in pure engineering terms. Moral and philosophical issues can cause yet more problems, but they'll be arriving to a space already broken.

It also doesn't matter for my purposes why the information can't flow back up to the authority. Even a well-meaning, "enlightened" dictator can end up in this situation by sheer inability to process the incoming information. The dictator may be the nicest, most well-meaning person in human history full of compassion and love and every other virtue you care to name, and they'll still break things if they insist on authoritarianism.

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#127
post #13

It seems to be missing a very big factor: culture. If your goal is to implement some code for, say, healthcare, it is a lot easier to explain the business process to someone who is already familiar with how stuff is done on a higher level. Whenever you hire someone from a different culture / country, you need to start from the basics by explaining the very core of your society. An American programmer might not be too…

I try to explain this to people all the time. People discount tribal knowledge. I always use the analogy what if we where hired to build an app for Islamic banking, and ask them do you know anything about Islamic banking usually the answer is no. I know one thing about Islamic banking, they are not allowed to charge usury and I think they charge an upfront fee. I don't know how it is paid or if it is rolled into a loan, but the point is, someone who is from an Islamic country would know this, just like I know a US loan is going to be amortized with compounding interest that does not compound. Though I am not a banker, I have tribal knowledge of this contract. This filters down to very simple things that people take for granted.

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#128
post #13

It seems to be missing a very big factor: culture. If your goal is to implement some code for, say, healthcare, it is a lot easier to explain the business process to someone who is already familiar with how stuff is done on a higher level. Whenever you hire someone from a different culture / country, you need to start from the basics by explaining the very core of your society. An American programmer might not be too…

> An American programmer might not be too concerned if a body temperature measurement returns 45 degrees Celcius.

I'm baffled by this statement... I worked in the medical device industry for years at a company of 10k people and you would be hard pressed to find a sw engineer that didn't default to Celsius. Almost all sw engineers there either had EE, CpE or Biomedical Engineering degrees; Celsius is not remotely foreign to these types of engineers. I would be incredibly surprised if it was different at any medical device company.

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#129
post #127
post #13

It seems to be missing a very big factor: culture. If your goal is to implement some code for, say, healthcare, it is a lot easier to explain the business process to someone who is already familiar with how stuff is done on a higher level. Whenever you hire someone from a different culture / country, you need to start from the basics by explaining the very core of your society. An American programmer might not be too…

I try to explain this to people all the time. People discount tribal knowledge. I always use the analogy what if we where hired to build an app for Islamic banking, and ask them do you know anything about Islamic banking usually the answer is no. I know one thing about Islamic banking, they are not allowed to charge usury and I think they charge an upfront fee. I don't know how it is paid or if it is rolled into a lo…

A programmer from the US won't know the nuances of US banking either. I agree that someone has to know and write the specs. Does it have to be the programmers?

I agree that domain knowledge is invaluable. But in the examples given, the difference in domain knowledge between local talent vs remote may not justify the 5x salary.

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#130
post #62
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is definitely it. The best markets for selling software are the wealthy countries with their cultures. You need people in those countries that are part of those cultures to develop that software. So your employment market is limited by people within that culture that have that skill, which is why there is still a software development skills shortage. For purely technical things like kernel, database, network or…

But by this hypothesis, countries that have a different culture, but have similarly good programmers, would be able to produce a product suited to their own culture and thus out-compete the imported english version. But this rarely happens, if at all. So there's something that's still amiss.

This is exactly how it works in Japan. The country lies in the sweet spot where software development will likely never be able to compete globally, but local talent is good enough and the cultural divide big enough that local players almost always dominate the global competitor (e.g. Yahoo vs Google).
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