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Germany's Covid contact tracing app is Open Source

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Re: Germany's Covid contact tracing app is Open Source

#31
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also NZ is essentially corona-free, there isn't much pressure for app based tracing as long as those in contact with people coming in from anywhere else (i.e. air and sea port workers, customs officials and the likes) get rigorously tested.

Wouldn't a tracing app make more sense than having a rigorous border tests? It takes one miss-tested infected person to start a second wave in the country. So I would assume that the investment to make sure businesses provide the QR pays off testing everyone and risking another lockdown. I'm also not sure countries have the resources to enforce huge amounts of tests at the border.

> I'm also not sure countries have the resources to enforce huge amounts of tests at the border.

Right.

One issue with testing is that the only test you can do for masses in a border are basic health checks like temperature, but aside from all general issues with such kind of test (people are exhausted after travelling on a plane, having to do a test, ...) with COVID symptoms often only appear after one had been infectious for a while already, so one can pass by undetected and still spread.

Things like PCR tests take time and effort and have notable cost, which makes it hard to apply on a larger entrance port.

Either shut down completely (maybe based on origin region or recently visited regions) or be prepared to handle afterwards ... tracing contacts to identify potential carriers after ridentifying infected is a way which is at least a bit promising.

Re: Germany's Covid contact tracing app is Open Source

#32
post #13

I wonder how quickly contact tracing applications will be leveraged for other uses. If a significant number of protesters are using such an application then I imagine government will throw the “for your protection“ excuse to go harvest information from the phones of protesters to see who was meeting with him and who their social circles are. Of course, to keep us and our children safe.

Given the situation in the us currently, installing one of these apps would at least give me pause.

Re: Germany's Covid contact tracing app is Open Source

#33
post #7

I really question whether these apps will be effective. The limitation section https://github.com/corona-warn-app/cwa-documentation/blob/ma... of their architecture document shows that people in close proximity for a few minutes may not even get picked up. Anyone who has dealt with trying to work out distance from Bluetooth signal strength will know that it is virtually impossible once you factor in, the orientation…

Many countries are now in the situation where they have far more test capacity than referrals for tests. In that context, this sort of app may be useful; it will produce candidates for tests who are more likely to be hits than purely random testing. This is especially the case in places where prevalence of the disease is now extremely low (like Germany).

Re: Germany's Covid contact tracing app is Open Source

#34
post #7

I really question whether these apps will be effective. The limitation section https://github.com/corona-warn-app/cwa-documentation/blob/ma... of their architecture document shows that people in close proximity for a few minutes may not even get picked up. Anyone who has dealt with trying to work out distance from Bluetooth signal strength will know that it is virtually impossible once you factor in, the orientation…

As others have pointed out, resources are currently available. Especially in Germany.

Nevertheless, countries who have been successful in reducing the spread also need to find ways to drive R0 below 1 for a long time. This has proven difficult in Germany.

Therefore, it seems that any reasonable false positive rate will still be a net benefit - given that active cases are now very low and it is desirable to catch any infections early.

So yes, this will not help everyone. And yes, it may lead to false positive quarantines - until test results are back.

But it still seems to be a net positive as long as the privacy part is intact.

Re: Germany's Covid contact tracing app is Open Source

#35
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The biggest risk are longer contacts, not very short ones. You don't want to notify everyone that passed that person on the street, but you do want to notify everyone that was reasonably close in the same train for half an hour. This is pretty much just an extension to classic contact tracing. And there you also have to work with very rough categories of risk, this isn't so much different.

I don’t see why N S-second contacts would be lower risk than one N×S-second one. This isn’t a matter of ‘small doses can’t harm you’, is it?

That's only true if all of the N contacts are infected. If I walk past 60 people on the street, there's a much lower chance than if I have lunch for an hour with someone who's infected. You don't instantly get sick just by getting close to someone who is, but every second you're near them is a roll of the dice on it transmitting.

Re: Germany's Covid contact tracing app is Open Source

#36
post #7

I really question whether these apps will be effective. The limitation section https://github.com/corona-warn-app/cwa-documentation/blob/ma... of their architecture document shows that people in close proximity for a few minutes may not even get picked up. Anyone who has dealt with trying to work out distance from Bluetooth signal strength will know that it is virtually impossible once you factor in, the orientation…

I have pointed out the weakness of the correlation between viral transmission vectors and BTLE radio signals these apps are relying on a few times before here on HN. I've pointed to the failure of deployment % reaching anywhere near the required density (and we are talking order of magnitude off here, not 'just missing a few %') where citizens had free choice. We've already seen many authorities requesting 'more control' and lambasting Google/Apple for being too restrictive.

But on HN, any criticism of this tech is met with a swift unsubstantiated down-vote.

Re: Germany's Covid contact tracing app is Open Source

#38
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't a tracing app make more sense than having a rigorous border tests? It takes one miss-tested infected person to start a second wave in the country. So I would assume that the investment to make sure businesses provide the QR pays off testing everyone and risking another lockdown. I'm also not sure countries have the resources to enforce huge amounts of tests at the border.

> I'm also not sure countries have the resources to enforce huge amounts of tests at the border. Right. One issue with testing is that the only test you can do for masses in a border are basic health checks like temperature, but aside from all general issues with such kind of test (people are exhausted after travelling on a plane, having to do a test, ...) with COVID symptoms often only appear after one had been infe…

> Either shut down completely (maybe based on origin region or recently visited regions) or be prepared to handle afterwards

If you only shut down based on recently visited regions, you're likely to import cases anyways. With CoVID-19, it takes several weeks to identify an outbreak in a region (especially without extensive testing). By the time you shut down travel from a given region, you've probably already been importing cases for weeks.

The WHO has gotten a huge amount of flak for not calling for travel restrictions during this pandemic. But their recommendations were based on the ineffectiveness of travel restrictions,* according to previous research. They recommended screening passengers for symptoms, but also told countries to take measures to limit spread (like testing and contact tracing), on the assumption that countries would import cases.

* The WHO's recommendations were also based on the International Health Regulations, an international treaty that basically every country on Earth has joined. Most of the public is unaware of the IHR or what it says about travel restrictions, or of the history of the WHO (one of its founding goals was to stop countries from automatically shutting their borders whenever there was an outbreak, and instead to take rational, evidence-based measures).

Re: Germany's Covid contact tracing app is Open Source

#39
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually it makes a huge difference. You need to absorb a certain amount of payload in oder to get infected. I found this article[1] on the subject extremely enlightening. [1] https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-t...

One thing unclear from that is how how fast, if at all, accumulated viruses clear out. Say you need to inhale 1000 of a particular virus to get its disease, and talking normally with an infected person gives you 200/minute, so it takes you 5 minutes to get the disease. You can get that 1000 by talking 5 minutes with one infected person, or you can get it by talking 3 minutes with one infected person and then shortly…

> Edit: how does acquiring immunity fit in? If I get 60% of an infectious dose and then no further exposure until my body has dealt with that, do I get any immunity or does that only happen if I accumulate enough virus at one time to actually get sick?

Not an expert but I think I can handle this one.

> The model here would be that you have a virus accumulator (you), being filled by exposure events and drained by your immune system, and you get sick if the accumulator reaches some threshold.

This is a simplified model of the immune system, and in order to answer the above question we need to make it a little less simplified.

First, let's talk about the accumulator. It's not only being filled by sars-cov-2, but also by other viruses, foreign bacteria, etc. I don't understand well enough to say how that affects the threshold in our model so I'll ignore that for now. Let's represent all these as javascript objects.

As I understand it, your immune system has two main responses to infections: white blood cells and T cells[0]. They both work essentially by duck typing -- in our model, that's the shape of the js objects; irl it's the protiens exposed on the surface of the virus[1]. White blood cells match a much more general pattern, but are not very efficient compared to T cells. Your model only considers white blood cells.

T cells work a little differently. Your body constantly generates T cells that match random virus shapes. The newly-made T cells take a look through the accumulator and see if they match any of the objects. If not, they self-destruct. This is what hapoens most of the time, since the accumulator is cleaned out fairly quickly. But if they do -- say, when the accumulator has overflowed and now the virus is reproducing freely, so it stays around for a long time -- they start to clone themselves. Eventually, they clone themselves enough that they, with their higher efficiency, are able to remove all of the virus from the accumulator. When this happens, a few of them stick around for a while. This is immunity: even if you get hit with a big dose of sars-cov-2, you've got some Tcells hanging around from last time, which can handle the virus with increased efficiency (multiplying themselves[2] as necessary).

That is to say, a small amount of exposure over a long period of time is unlikely to generate immunity, since you never generate T cells to fight the virus.

[0] These are not the only parts, but they play a big role and generalize well to the two main parts of our immune system.

[1] Aside, you could, with a little fudging, extend this analogy to how viruses infect cells -- cells each have api endpoints, and the virus takes the shape of the regular payload enough to pass validation checking, but also has malicious parts to trigger remote code execution once inside the cell, so the cell turns around and starts spitting out viruses instead of its normal responses.

[2] Actually I do not remember what the mechanism is for this -- whether they multiply themselves or send a message back to the T cell factory to "produce more like me", at which point the T cell factory caches the blueprint, and that's the immunity, rather than any T cells themselves sticking around. Maybe someone with a deeper understanding of the biology can correct any nuances I'm

Re: Germany's Covid contact tracing app is Open Source

#40
post #16

Meanwhile in the UK, it's closed source corruptionware: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-husband-test-tra...

That story does not say anything about that.

The UK app's source code has been released. Previous discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23107553

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