San Francisco, Silicon Valley rents plunge amid downturn • Hacker News Board

Re: San Francisco, Silicon Valley rents plunge amid downturn

#81

Post by rootedbox » Mon, Jun 01, 2020, 5:01 PM UTC

jedberg wrote: post #73

This article seems to be based on only a few transactions, as not a lot of people are actually moving right now. I manage a couple of properties in the Bay Area, so I keep a close eye on these things. What I'm seeing is not a drop in rents, but an increase in $0 deposits and many weeks of free rent upon move in (sometimes 6+ weeks). Landlords are very reluctant to lower rents, because with the statewide rent control…

I live on 22 block Valencia.. I've had 4 neighbors move out in the past month. So as far as price.. I can't say. But as far as folks moving out. I can.

Re: San Francisco, Silicon Valley rents plunge amid downturn

#82

Post by reaperducer » Mon, Jun 01, 2020, 5:01 PM UTC

jedberg wrote: post #66

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a not small anecdote, I live in a new building in Mountain View -- about 300 units. When I moved in last Summer, there were only 4 units available. It's currently over 50% vacant. My rent was $4300. They're currently renting the same unit on a higher floor for $3500.

> My rent was $4300. They're currently renting the same unit on a higher floor for $3500. You should ask them to lower your rent to $3500. Then ask if you can move in upstairs.

He probably can at the end of the lease, but usually not in the middle. I've done it, but it seems to take an open-minded management company.

It also depends on things such as how much money/time/effort the landlord want to put into "turning" an apartment, the number of corporate long-term rentals a complex has, what the landlord thinks is going to happen in the near future, and even what property management software the apartment complex runs.

Re: San Francisco, Silicon Valley rents plunge amid downturn

#83

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Jun 01, 2020, 5:03 PM UTC

MajorBee wrote: post #29

DevX101 wrote: post #5

Looks like people are really leaving the Bay Area. you don't see 10-15% price drops in a year without corresponding drop in demand.

Might also be that people are preferring to not move in the coming months (thanks to COVID-19) and so the units that _are_ on the market simply aren't finding many buyers. I'm actually looking for a new place in the Bay Area next month -- some units have their sticker price uncharacteristically low for sure; many have some kind of specials running too, like first month rent free. I asked a few leasing reps if this is…

[deleted]

Re: San Francisco, Silicon Valley rents plunge amid downturn

#84

Post by ejcx » Mon, Jun 01, 2020, 5:03 PM UTC

notyourwork wrote: post #80

jedberg wrote: post #73

This article seems to be based on only a few transactions, as not a lot of people are actually moving right now. I manage a couple of properties in the Bay Area, so I keep a close eye on these things. What I'm seeing is not a drop in rents, but an increase in $0 deposits and many weeks of free rent upon move in (sometimes 6+ weeks). Landlords are very reluctant to lower rents, because with the statewide rent control…

> Landlords are very reluctant to lower rents, because with the statewide rent control that limits increases to 5% a year, we're incentivized to keep the rents high and give months of free rent, just so our base rate doesn't drop. How is it that Mission Bay apartments are not subject to these rent control regulations if this is state wide? Asking because when I lived in Mission Bay, UDR properties each year tried inc…

Mission Bay apartments were built after 1979 (or whatever the exact date is). It's all new construction, which isn't subject to rent control: https://www.sftu.org/rent-control/

Re: San Francisco, Silicon Valley rents plunge amid downturn

#85

Post by hendzen » Mon, Jun 01, 2020, 5:04 PM UTC

cpascal wrote: post #33

Anyone seeing a similar dip in the NYC metropolitan area? I've been casually watching rents and not seeing much of a dip. It seems that there are less units available as well, so perhaps that is counterbalancing a decrease in demand.

Streeteasy data [0] shows a drop in listings but no fall in asking rents. However there has been a sharp rise in concessions - i.e. free month upon new lease signing. My guess is landlords are currently keeping apartments off the market rather lock in lower rents, and when they do need to move a unit they use concessions since they look better from an accounting basis. I think eventually we will see a fall in gross rents but it may take longer than expected.

[0] - https://streeteasy.com/blog/data-dashboard

Re: San Francisco, Silicon Valley rents plunge amid downturn

#86

Post by evancox100 » Mon, Jun 01, 2020, 5:04 PM UTC

gffrd wrote: post #76

jcomis wrote: post #14

I think the reality will set in soon on this once the CARES bonus UI is removed (and if it is not replaced) and the PPP loans run out. Right now everyone I know in real estate is still convinced it was just a minor blip and love to cite cherry picked stats about how a recovery is already under way. Coincidently I have been seeing a lot of fully furnished units coming on the market which I assume were former Airbnbs.

A friend saw 9 move-outs in his building last month, up from a norm of 1. All were AirBNBs.

What does that mean? The non-resident owner moved out their stuff?

Re: San Francisco, Silicon Valley rents plunge amid downturn

#87

Post by _2d30 » Mon, Jun 01, 2020, 5:04 PM UTC

notyourwork wrote: post #80

jedberg wrote: post #73

This article seems to be based on only a few transactions, as not a lot of people are actually moving right now. I manage a couple of properties in the Bay Area, so I keep a close eye on these things. What I'm seeing is not a drop in rents, but an increase in $0 deposits and many weeks of free rent upon move in (sometimes 6+ weeks). Landlords are very reluctant to lower rents, because with the statewide rent control…

> Landlords are very reluctant to lower rents, because with the statewide rent control that limits increases to 5% a year, we're incentivized to keep the rents high and give months of free rent, just so our base rate doesn't drop. How is it that Mission Bay apartments are not subject to these rent control regulations if this is state wide? Asking because when I lived in Mission Bay, UDR properties each year tried inc…

Building needs to be 15yrs old

Re: San Francisco, Silicon Valley rents plunge amid downturn

#88

Post by deet » Mon, Jun 01, 2020, 5:04 PM UTC

DevX101 wrote: post #5

Looks like people are really leaving the Bay Area. you don't see 10-15% price drops in a year without corresponding drop in demand.

I live across from a high rise in downtown SF, can see clearly into over 200 units in that building (mostly studios and one bedrooms), and have been taking pictures over the past few months to track vacancy.

In early March it appeared to be ~2%. Now I count over a 10% vacancy rate.

Definitely seems like a real drop in demand.

Re: San Francisco, Silicon Valley rents plunge amid downturn

#89

Post by inieves » Mon, Jun 01, 2020, 5:04 PM UTC

vmception wrote: post #19

jumbopapa wrote: post #11

Interesting news. I've heard that real estate prices haven't budged much and with the stock market remaining relatively strong, I wonder if we will see a corresponding rebound in rent sometime soon.

The demand drivers of students and tech workers is gone, and the street conditions are abysmal. The volume of anyone else obsessed with 'networking' is much lower.

well said

Re: San Francisco, Silicon Valley rents plunge amid downturn

#90

Post by _2d30 » Mon, Jun 01, 2020, 5:04 PM UTC

ejcx wrote: post #84

notyourwork wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Landlords are very reluctant to lower rents, because with the statewide rent control that limits increases to 5% a year, we're incentivized to keep the rents high and give months of free rent, just so our base rate doesn't drop. How is it that Mission Bay apartments are not subject to these rent control regulations if this is state wide? Asking because when I lived in Mission Bay, UDR properties each year tried inc…

Mission Bay apartments were built after 1979 (or whatever the exact date is). It's all new construction, which isn't subject to rent control: https://www.sftu.org/rent-control/

Not starting in 2019: https://la.curbed.com/2019/9/24/20868937/california-rent-con...