San Francisco, Silicon Valley rents plunge amid downturn • Hacker News Board

Re: San Francisco, Silicon Valley rents plunge amid downturn

#41

Post by fiter » Mon, Jun 01, 2020, 4:40 PM UTC

ericmcer wrote: post #32

This also might open many landlords eyes to how ugly their situations can get when they want to remove a tenant in Oakland/SF/Berkeley even if a tenant stops paying rent. I have two friends who are currently refusing to leave in-law units and it is quickly getting bad for their landlords ($30k deal to get one of them to leave). That said I totally welcome this, part of the reason why our communities suck in the bay a…

You can't even evict people right now due to the emergency regulations. I wonder why the landlords are even bothering right now? Wait until after, evict for non-payment (one of the only easy ways to evict), then either try to collect or send back rent to collections and claim it as a loss and move on.

Re: San Francisco, Silicon Valley rents plunge amid downturn

#42

Post by ar_lan » Mon, Jun 01, 2020, 4:40 PM UTC

xur17 wrote: post #26

jcomis wrote: post #14

I think the reality will set in soon on this once the CARES bonus UI is removed (and if it is not replaced) and the PPP loans run out. Right now everyone I know in real estate is still convinced it was just a minor blip and love to cite cherry picked stats about how a recovery is already under way. Coincidently I have been seeing a lot of fully furnished units coming on the market which I assume were former Airbnbs.

> Coincidently I have been seeing a lot of fully furnished units coming on the market which I assume were former Airbnbs. I've been noticing this as well (I can still find some of them on Airbnb actually). I'm currently in the market for a house, but wondering if waiting a year might be a wise move..

I'm waiting a year, in the hopes that some 700k-range homes start popping up that aren't 100% dumpster fires.

Re: San Francisco, Silicon Valley rents plunge amid downturn

#43

Post by cameronbrown » Mon, Jun 01, 2020, 4:40 PM UTC

thorwasdfasdf wrote: post #37

pokstad wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Coincidently I have been seeing a lot of fully furnished units coming on the market which I assume were former Airbnbs. Wow. Does anyone have an estimate of the cost of living increase caused by Airbnb rentals?

specifically, it's the tourists causing the cost increase. airBnb is just the facilitator. if they weren't going to airbinb they would've gone to hotels or people renting out their apartments.

Conjecture. AirBnB's are generally below market rate for hotels which brings more people in than you'd have otherwise gotten.

Re: San Francisco, Silicon Valley rents plunge amid downturn

#44

Post by mikeyouse » Mon, Jun 01, 2020, 4:41 PM UTC

thorwasdfasdf wrote: post #37

pokstad wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Coincidently I have been seeing a lot of fully furnished units coming on the market which I assume were former Airbnbs. Wow. Does anyone have an estimate of the cost of living increase caused by Airbnb rentals?

specifically, it's the tourists causing the cost increase. airBnb is just the facilitator. if they weren't going to airbinb they would've gone to hotels or people renting out their apartments.

If they were going to hotels, they wouldn't cause rent increases in residential properties... that's kind of the point..

Re: San Francisco, Silicon Valley rents plunge amid downturn

#45

Post by cameronbrown » Mon, Jun 01, 2020, 4:41 PM UTC

driverdan wrote: post #39

Finnucane wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, a drop in money, as in, a lot of people suddenly don't have any. And not just people leaving, but people not moving in.

The majority of people who lost income are not the ones buying real estate in the bay.

But everyone buying real estate in the Bay Area needs a functioning economy to stay afloat themselves.

Re: San Francisco, Silicon Valley rents plunge amid downturn

#46

Post by jcomis » Mon, Jun 01, 2020, 4:41 PM UTC

xur17 wrote: post #26

jcomis wrote: post #14

I think the reality will set in soon on this once the CARES bonus UI is removed (and if it is not replaced) and the PPP loans run out. Right now everyone I know in real estate is still convinced it was just a minor blip and love to cite cherry picked stats about how a recovery is already under way. Coincidently I have been seeing a lot of fully furnished units coming on the market which I assume were former Airbnbs.

> Coincidently I have been seeing a lot of fully furnished units coming on the market which I assume were former Airbnbs. I've been noticing this as well (I can still find some of them on Airbnb actually). I'm currently in the market for a house, but wondering if waiting a year might be a wise move..

I'm in the same boat and have decided to wait. It's really impossible to know though. Luckily I'm ok with staying in my rental for the time being.

Re: San Francisco, Silicon Valley rents plunge amid downturn

#47

Post by onlyrealcuzzo » Mon, Jun 01, 2020, 4:42 PM UTC

xur17 wrote: post #26

jcomis wrote: post #14

I think the reality will set in soon on this once the CARES bonus UI is removed (and if it is not replaced) and the PPP loans run out. Right now everyone I know in real estate is still convinced it was just a minor blip and love to cite cherry picked stats about how a recovery is already under way. Coincidently I have been seeing a lot of fully furnished units coming on the market which I assume were former Airbnbs.

> Coincidently I have been seeing a lot of fully furnished units coming on the market which I assume were former Airbnbs. I've been noticing this as well (I can still find some of them on Airbnb actually). I'm currently in the market for a house, but wondering if waiting a year might be a wise move..

Well if you think this is going to be a downturn, you should look at how other downturns in housing unfolded. Usually, house prices take a while to fall once things get bad. Usually, you start to see a lot of deals and properties selling way under asking before average listing prices drop. If we are going to get to that point, it certainly doesn't appear to have happened yet.

Re: San Francisco, Silicon Valley rents plunge amid downturn

#48

Post by onlyrealcuzzo » Mon, Jun 01, 2020, 4:44 PM UTC

DevX101 wrote: post #5

Looks like people are really leaving the Bay Area. you don't see 10-15% price drops in a year without corresponding drop in demand.

As a not small anecdote, I live in a new building in Mountain View -- about 300 units. When I moved in last Summer, there were only 4 units available. It's currently over 50% vacant.

My rent was $4300. They're currently renting the same unit on a higher floor for $3500.

Re: San Francisco, Silicon Valley rents plunge amid downturn

#49

Post by somebrody » Mon, Jun 01, 2020, 4:45 PM UTC

thorwasdfasdf wrote: post #37

pokstad wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Coincidently I have been seeing a lot of fully furnished units coming on the market which I assume were former Airbnbs. Wow. Does anyone have an estimate of the cost of living increase caused by Airbnb rentals?

specifically, it's the tourists causing the cost increase. airBnb is just the facilitator. if they weren't going to airbinb they would've gone to hotels or people renting out their apartments.

> it's the tourists causing the cost increase

Ok, show me where the tourists do this without a landlord enabling it. If AirBnb didn't exist, would tourist just sleep in the park?

Re: San Francisco, Silicon Valley rents plunge amid downturn

#50

Post by sushisource » Mon, Jun 01, 2020, 4:45 PM UTC

xur17 wrote: post #26

jcomis wrote: post #14

I think the reality will set in soon on this once the CARES bonus UI is removed (and if it is not replaced) and the PPP loans run out. Right now everyone I know in real estate is still convinced it was just a minor blip and love to cite cherry picked stats about how a recovery is already under way. Coincidently I have been seeing a lot of fully furnished units coming on the market which I assume were former Airbnbs.

> Coincidently I have been seeing a lot of fully furnished units coming on the market which I assume were former Airbnbs. I've been noticing this as well (I can still find some of them on Airbnb actually). I'm currently in the market for a house, but wondering if waiting a year might be a wise move..

If you're staying in the same market and you already own, then it doesn't matter much. What matters more is that your other investments are relatively outperforming the house (likely already true because of the Fed's money printer).

If you don't already own, waiting for a drop might be wise, but if you're going to sell stock to do it, you might wanna do it now. I'm looking at trading up to a new place right now and that's my plan.