SpaceX successfully launches two humans into orbit • Hacker News Board

Re: SpaceX successfully launches two humans into orbit

#711

Post by QuesnayJr » Sun, May 31, 2020, 12:31 PM UTC

giantrobot wrote: post #694

luma wrote: post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can think of one commercial case for people in space: servicing existing systems in orbit. There have been a handful of STS missions that involved EVAs to service everything from the Hubble's famous mirror to correcting launch issues with commercial communication satellites like STS-49: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STS-49 I doubt there's enough of a need for this sort of thing to keep a venture afloat, but manned…

The Space Shuttle was unique in terms of orbital servicing in that it had an airlock, a giant cargo bay, and CanadaArm. The airlock allowed astronauts to go outside the vehicle to work on stuff without de pressuring and repressurizing the whole vehicle. No capsules have that capability and none are really large enough to add the capability. Remember it's not just the airlock but storage of the EMUs and any tools or e…

I wonder if how hard it would be to build a space-only servicing vehicle that stays docked with the ISS.

Re: SpaceX successfully launches two humans into orbit

#712

Post by danjac » Sun, May 31, 2020, 12:39 PM UTC

Rebelgecko wrote: post #363

stickfigure wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You get access to rare materials that can be immensely valuable. Why would you want to send humans to get it? Space is really inhospitable for humans, but machines seem to like it just fine. Offshore oil and gas mining is rapidly being automated, and if they could, they would eliminate humans from the process altogether. Nobody wants to go out and live on a frozen windblown metal can full of industrial machinery, i…

I don't know much about the intricacies of asteroid mining, but human beings are very capable entities. As great as machines like the Mars rovers are, there's no comparison. A human astronaut could probably accomplish as much in a week as a Mars rover can in a year. When I was reading the daily diaries of one of the rover drivers, it was incredible how much effort and thought went into the most trivial activities. A…

I don't know enough about any of the relevant fields to speak with confidence about what advancements are more likely to happen in the next few decades, but it feels that the number of things we'd need to get better at to send humans further than lunar orbit with a decent chance of survival represent a far greater challenge than the relatively modest progress we would need to make in AI to make more capable and independent exploration craft.

Re: SpaceX successfully launches two humans into orbit

#713

Post by tripzilch » Sun, May 31, 2020, 12:40 PM UTC

mumblemumble wrote: post #558

wongarsu wrote: post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the ISS you can produce higher quality optical fiber than on earth [1]. A demonstration fabrication unit is already on the ISS, and NASA has recently published prices for using the ISS for commercial tasks such as this. I suspect many other manufacturing methods can also benefit from zero gravity, and as launch costs drop more of these will be explored. 1: https://upward.issnationallab.org/the-race-to-manufacture-…

It's interesting to think about that from the other side, too. Just delivering the raw materials to the manufacturing facility would cost ~$3000/kg (assuming rock bottom SpaceX prices). Based on some loose googling, I think that 1kg of raw material would yield only something on the order of 100m of cable. It looks like a typical 100m fiber optic patch cable retails for about $60. So, there's clearly a lot of value to…

> That really drives home to me that, even though information technology is just my boring day job and it's still space travel that gets me as excited as it did when I was a kid, it's still true that the space age is over and we're definitely living in the information age.

Just the fact that the historical events the past couple of days didn't involve space, but something filmed on a mobile phone shared through information technology ...

Re: SpaceX successfully launches two humans into orbit

#714

Post by danjac » Sun, May 31, 2020, 12:53 PM UTC

kenneth wrote: post #594

Chathamization wrote: post #510

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A human astronaut could probably accomplish as much in a week as a Mars rover can in a year. The estimates I've seen for a human mission to Mars are about 100-500 times the budget for Curiosity. So even if astronauts could accomplish things 52X faster (and I'm skeptical they would), it still wouldn't be as cost efficient. And that's even before you factor in the fact that the Mars Rover is going to be doing work on…

We (well, Europeans) explored the earth when it looked quite similar to space exploration today. Year-long journeys with very little chance of survival, and no idea what was waiting on the other side. We ended up making some amazing discoveries (the new worlds) that turned out to be of vast economical benefits. Who says space exploration can't be similar. (Yes, there is a lot of controversy over colonialism that I wo…

> We (well, Europeans)

I think the Polynesians would like a word. And the "vast economic benefits" are dubious given the total human cost of introducing new diseases into unprepared ecosystems and populations - plus the import of abundant New World silver provided coin for the financing of the long, devastating mercenary wars of the early modern period in Europe and disrupted and destabilized the economy of China.

But in any case, humans had pretty much covered the globe outside Antarctica by the time Columbus set sail, in environments that, harsh as they may be, still provided breathable air, drinkable water and food if you knew how to hunt/scavenge/grow it.

Re: SpaceX successfully launches two humans into orbit

#715

Post by ptero » Sun, May 31, 2020, 12:55 PM UTC

numpad0 wrote: post #709

jasode wrote: post #644

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To clarify, it's "EDT" not "EST": https://www.google.com/search?q=spacex+dock+%22space+station... Fyi that "Daylight Saving Time" instead of "Standard Time" is in effect in case someone miscalculates it by 1 hour.

Out of curiosity, how do modern systems handle DST outside its seasons e.g. “12/31 21:15 EDT”?

I think on most Linux systems a time string in a specific timezone is just a visual representation. Internally, times are kept as a number of seconds from 1/1/70 UTC midnight (with leap second adjustments if needed). When a user wants to convert to/from a timezone it is a simple addition for the timezone offset. EST adjustment is always 5 hours, EDT always 4.

You could in principle warn users that they are asking for a strange time, e.g. the one you indicated, but if the user wants to see it, why not.

Re: SpaceX successfully launches two humans into orbit

#716

Post by DennisP » Sun, May 31, 2020, 1:01 PM UTC

gruturo wrote: post #701

dannyw wrote: post #633

Earlier quoted context omitted.

High frequency traders will want the best connectivity humanely possible. It’s a zero sum game. If they can beat a competitor firm’s signals by the smallest fraction of a second, even a nanosecond, they reaps in the profits. So $100m for some better fibre? Go nuts!

High frequency traders do NOT want to be limited by the speed of light in a fiber - due to its refractive index (1.5 for ZBLAN according to Wikipedia) this is only 66% of the speed of a radio signal. Over 10km this amounts to an 11 microseconds difference - already significant for HFT. This is why they have been leveling hills to carve a (mostly, with minimal amount of repeater towers) line of sight path between NYC…

I've seen speculation that low latency may be a big part of the business plan for Starlink.

Re: SpaceX successfully launches two humans into orbit

#717

Post by 1bc29b36f623ba8 » Sun, May 31, 2020, 1:24 PM UTC

Chathamization wrote: post #510

Rebelgecko wrote: post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know much about the intricacies of asteroid mining, but human beings are very capable entities. As great as machines like the Mars rovers are, there's no comparison. A human astronaut could probably accomplish as much in a week as a Mars rover can in a year. When I was reading the daily diaries of one of the rover drivers, it was incredible how much effort and thought went into the most trivial activities. A…

> A human astronaut could probably accomplish as much in a week as a Mars rover can in a year. The estimates I've seen for a human mission to Mars are about 100-500 times the budget for Curiosity. So even if astronauts could accomplish things 52X faster (and I'm skeptical they would), it still wouldn't be as cost efficient. And that's even before you factor in the fact that the Mars Rover is going to be doing work on…

There are some latency involved when it comes to interplanetary exploration, not to mention communication between planets. That alone gives human exploration a certain advantage in some cases.

I suspect the majority of future exploration will stay robotic though. There are going to be some high-profile missions, but once we start looking more at asteroids and other targets far out in the solar system, then robots will continue to do the bulk of the work.

As far as I am concerned, the major breakthrough here is the reusability that SpaceX is bringing into the table. If we can lower prices of sending stuff to outer space, then we'll be able to do so much more with current space exploration budgets.

Re: SpaceX successfully launches two humans into orbit

#718

Post by sq_ » Sun, May 31, 2020, 1:30 PM UTC

reddog wrote: post #321

My unsolicited advice to the folks on this thread that were moved by todays launch: make time to travel to Florida and see one of these launches in person. If you have kids take them with you. Years ago I took some time out of a very busy schedule to see STS-130, the last shuttle night launch. I've always been a space nerd but I wasn't prepared for how seeing, hearing and feeling a launch in person was so different t…

Absolutely agree. It’s truly amazing. I’ve had the chance to go to Vandenberg AFB in CA for two SpaceX launches, and while I’ve never actually gotten to see the rocket itself because of low-level fog, the feeling of being there is absolutely insane.

You hear the countdown over the radio, and a few seconds later you feel the rumble hit you, and you can feel it in your chest as it goes up and away. It’s an unmatched experience.

Re: SpaceX successfully launches two humans into orbit

#719

Post by pharke » Sun, May 31, 2020, 1:30 PM UTC

mumblemumble wrote: post #558

wongarsu wrote: post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the ISS you can produce higher quality optical fiber than on earth [1]. A demonstration fabrication unit is already on the ISS, and NASA has recently published prices for using the ISS for commercial tasks such as this. I suspect many other manufacturing methods can also benefit from zero gravity, and as launch costs drop more of these will be explored. 1: https://upward.issnationallab.org/the-race-to-manufacture-…

It's interesting to think about that from the other side, too. Just delivering the raw materials to the manufacturing facility would cost ~$3000/kg (assuming rock bottom SpaceX prices). Based on some loose googling, I think that 1kg of raw material would yield only something on the order of 100m of cable. It looks like a typical 100m fiber optic patch cable retails for about $60. So, there's clearly a lot of value to…

> the raw materials to the manufacturing facility would cost ~$3000/kg

This is also assuming the price per kg to orbit stays stable but Musk has stated he intends to drive the price down much further. He's even given figures for what he thinks they might be able to achieve with Starship[0] and SpaceX's rapid progress seems to indicate that they will, eventually, get there. The best comparison from history is probably the construction of railroads which had long development timelines and capital costs but eventually began paying back massive amounts even while driving the cost of freight down and providing a backbone for commercial and industrial development.

[0] https://www.inverse.com/article/60712-spacex-starship-elon-m...

Re: SpaceX successfully launches two humans into orbit

#720

Post by pms » Sun, May 31, 2020, 1:31 PM UTC

TomMarius wrote: post #710

andrepd wrote: post #699

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh, that's a really sad thing to optimise for, don't you think? Revealing of a broken incentive system. I'd prefer if HFT practices were banned.

Can you be more specific about what is so broken about the need for efficient and fast trade?

Volatility is the main concern [1]. Making trading decisions based on microseconds is speculation. How can anyone or anything reach an understanding of something as complex as markets in this short time?

Other concerns include unnecessary waste and unfairness [2]. The point is that this is a zero-sum game that makes us invest in infrastructure that will soon get obsolete once someone else builds a faster infrastructure.

Fast trade isn't "efficient". Long-term stability is.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_flash_crash [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_Boys