451–460 of 839 posts
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> but machines seem to like it just fine. I think you are underestimating the challenges they have to overcome to get machines to work in space.
> I think you are underestimating the challenges they have to overcome to get machines to work in space. Even if it’s hard, it’s still a lot easier than getting humans to work in space.
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A new normal has just been defined. Amazing to see. "Thank you for flying with Falcon 9 today", as though it's an airplane.
So many cheeky touches! It's such a different vibe than the NASA launches of old. It's old news but I still was caught off guard by announcers flatly referring to "Of Course I Still Love You" EDIT this is not a criticism, I really like it. Maybe "cheeky" is the wrong term, I'm bad with Anglicisms
https://concord.fandom.com/wiki/Iain_M._Banks_Culture_Univer... (ctrl-f for Windward)
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But how much of that cost was initial R&D vs what SpaceX was doing? It's hard to compare costs given that it feels like much of NASA space development was science research into how to actually do it, paving the way for future projects. There are many examples of successful commercial programs that could only exist because of huge ("unprofitable") government R&D behind it. Google maps, the entire internet, commercial…
SLS and Orion were developed in the 21st century, when there was no need for new basic science research, and their development costs are staggering. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System#Funding_hi... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)#Funding_his...
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That's what I meant by "hold off". It isn't commercial until it is. Government-sponsored developmental programs may one day pave the way for commercial operations, but that hasn't happened yet. And the concept of space-mining likely will not involve people. We are already replacing men with machines in mines on earth because of associated costs. I imagine the first space miners won't be guys in spacesuits carrying sh…
Especially given that we'll need to leave the magnetosphere to access a lot of space mining. You either bring a ton of shielding+food+water+life support+crew quarters, or you advance autonomous operation. One of those is already happening and highly applicable to other fields. Imo what ever comes after homo sapiens inherits the solar system, not homo sapiens ourselves
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I’m not super well informed on this, but is there any reason for sending humans to space at this moment in time (or for the next 20 years for that matter). The only reason my layperson understanding can think of is mining minerals in space, but I fail to see why robots wouldn’t be able to adequately do the job. In fact wouldn’t sending humans make future space ventures even more costly and put people into unessisary…
Because we can.
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The sheer cost of launches is much lower on a Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon versus the Shuttle. Amortized per-launch cost for the Shuttle was about $1.5B [0]. The cost of the Demo-2 mission today with 2 astronauts costs $110M [1]. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle_program#Budget [1]: This article states the per-astronaut cost paid by NASA on a Crew Dragon mission is $55M, compared to $86M on Soyuz: https://…
It get even more exciting when you consider that $110M is the cost to NASA. The cost to SpaceX could quickly reach an order of magnitude lower as it becomes more frequent and reused. As a bonus, the increased profits pay for the next ship, dropping costs even further.
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> I hope we can move away from the "elon sucks" v.s. "elon is a genius" dichotomy and into a culture of acknowledging accomplishment while insisting claims in other areas be fully justified. Until then, I'll happily consider Elon's or even John Carmack's opinion over those of Elon's numerous, noisy but otherwise uninteresting critics on the Internet and elsewhere.
How much weight should I give the opinion of someone who calls someone who disagrees with him "the pedo guy"? It's a serious question. Elon may run some successful companies, but beyond that his credibility has taken a beating on any number of fronts. How much credit should Elon get for heading companies full of other people who do the actual work? Could another leader do a better job, given Elons unsteady behaviour?
Maybe people should recognize that failure in a domain doesn't mean that same person isn't otherwise highly competent.
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factory of rockets Rocket factories existed over 50 years ago. But they were making ICBMs.[1] The big change is that it's now possible to make money launching. [1] https://youtu.be/Pqw9YOOOuKk
Rockets were being made long before 50 years ago. There were plenty of rockets in WWI. And there were smaller rockets going back to before the US war of independence (ie "the rocket's red glare" ). If we are talking big metal things that fly into space being produced on an assembly line, then those operating in Germany during late WWII making the V2s (75years ago) were probably the first rocket factories. But I'm not…
(The Mongols used rockets several hundred years ago, but back then no one even knew what an orbit was).