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Mosquitoes kill more than 700k people every year (2017)

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Re: Mosquitoes kill more than 700k people every year (2017)

#81

Post by throwaway894345 »

macintux wrote: post #70
throwaway894345 wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm of the impression that in March and perhaps even in April "experts" (whoever they are) thought the US alone could see death tolls in the millions?

Without a lockdown, it’s still possible. Latest estimates are 0.5-1 percent fatality rate, which maps to 2-3 million people here in the US, and if everyone got ill in a short succession, because it is very contagious, the death toll would certainly be higher. Recent birthday party, 20 people, every single one caught the disease.

> Latest estimates are 0.5-1 percent fatality rate

I read just a couple of days ago that the IFR (infection fatality rate) is only ~0.25%-0.3%? Still ~four times higher than that of the flu, but not ten times greater.

Re: Mosquitoes kill more than 700k people every year (2017)

#82

Post by condesising »

ahelwer wrote: post #32

I grew up in Manitoba so have a very healthy hatred of mosquitoes - 50 of them once followed me into a car during the https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1120044775024013312

The mosquitoes provide any benefit? Reading this article is scary, I figured Science would just go for Total eradication.

Re: Mosquitoes kill more than 700k people every year (2017)

#83

Post by yyyk »

dmix wrote: post #37
ahelwer wrote: post #32

I grew up in Manitoba so have a very healthy hatred of mosquitoes - 50 of them once followed me into a car during the https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1120044775024013312

> anyone leaning toward the idea we should exterminate mosquitoes Is this actually a thing?

I am very much in favour. Well, not all mosquitoes, just those carrying infectious diseases. Ok, maybe not even wiping. We can keep some specimen in labs/zoos, and once the parasites/diseases has been wiped out by killing the hosts, we can release them again.

Humanity wipes out species by the dozens each year for no reason and people shrug, but for some reason many people don't want to target the few subspecies that are actually extremely harmful to humans.

Re: Mosquitoes kill more than 700k people every year (2017)

#84

Post by clairity »

throwaway894345 wrote: post #58
clairity wrote: post #54

700K per year. ok let's let the elephant out of the bag: why haven't we been in lockdown every year until this deadly scourge has been exterminated? and no, it's not that the current pandemic was more uncertain. even by january/february, it was clearly less contagious and deadly than the 1918 flu. we had good bounds on potential trajectory by early march, when many lockdowns were being implemented.

I'm of the impression that in March and perhaps even in April "experts" (whoever they are) thought the US alone could see death tolls in the millions?

it's not a single source, but certainly media editorialized that into the collective consciousness as an attention-capturing bonanza, and many politicians leapt onto the same opportunity to promote their power, agendas and careers. same for said "experts": a chance to be in the media, and if they were wrong, oh well, that's science.

Re: Mosquitoes kill more than 700k people every year (2017)

#85

Post by ravenstine »

Koshkin wrote: post #18

To put this in a perspective, 1 Mosquito 1,000,000 2 Human 475,000 3 Snake 50,000 4 Dog 25,000 5 Tsetse Fly 10,000 6 Assassin Bug 10,000 7 Freshwater Snail 10,000 8 Ascaris Roundworm 2,500 9 Tapeworm 2,000 10 Crocodile 1,000 11 Hippopotamus 500 12 Elephant 100 13 Lion 100 14 Wolf 10 15 Shark 10 https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-animals-that-kill-mo...

Is it most mosquitoes, or is it primarily aedis aegypti? I could swear I read that particular species was responsible for most mosquito-bourne disease, but I can't seem to find much information for the proportion between it and other species.

If they disproportionally kill even more than other mosquitoes, that also puts things into greater perspective. Perhaps if we could target this particular species, it would save millions of human lives.

Re: Mosquitoes kill more than 700k people every year (2017)

#86

Post by ravenstine »

slg wrote: post #55
Koshkin wrote: post #18

To put this in a perspective, 1 Mosquito 1,000,000 2 Human 475,000 3 Snake 50,000 4 Dog 25,000 5 Tsetse Fly 10,000 6 Assassin Bug 10,000 7 Freshwater Snail 10,000 8 Ascaris Roundworm 2,500 9 Tapeworm 2,000 10 Crocodile 1,000 11 Hippopotamus 500 12 Elephant 100 13 Lion 100 14 Wolf 10 15 Shark 10 https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-animals-that-kill-mo...

These numbers are weird. Why do we count mosquito-borne diseases under mosquitoes but don't put communicable diseases under the tally for humans? It is especially curious considering mosquitoes don't know any better while humans have both the knowledge and ability to dampen how disease spreads through our population.

That's kind of like saying that it's not the shark that kills people but the blood loss.

Re: Mosquitoes kill more than 700k people every year (2017)

#87

Post by yyyk »

ahelwer wrote: post #78
yyyk wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue is very well studied - Mosquitoes are an invading species in most areas; Only a few subspecies are harmful to humans, and they'll be replaced by similar mosquitoes that aren't. Besides, there's a very wide gap between what the West is and was willing to do when an infectious disease happens. When Malaria hit the West, we drained entire swamps (and their ecosystems) without a second though. When corona hits,…

Nature doesn't care about how something looks politically. Those decisions were bad and aren't vindicated because nothing went wrong (there are other cases where things went very very wrong, as another commenter mentions with DDT). In a nonlinear world you can never know whether you were right or just lucky.

Make no mistake, the West would do DDT all over again if that was the price for getting rid of Malaria. But a very targeted intervention is off limits due to 'well, we don't know, something might go wrong'.

Nature doesn't care if humans all die. Nature doesn't 'care' at all. Humanity does. And this looks very ugly and very hypocritical.

Re: Mosquitoes kill more than 700k people every year (2017)

#88

Post by aclsid »

cameronfraser wrote: post #36
Koshkin wrote: post #18

To put this in a perspective, 1 Mosquito 1,000,000 2 Human 475,000 3 Snake 50,000 4 Dog 25,000 5 Tsetse Fly 10,000 6 Assassin Bug 10,000 7 Freshwater Snail 10,000 8 Ascaris Roundworm 2,500 9 Tapeworm 2,000 10 Crocodile 1,000 11 Hippopotamus 500 12 Elephant 100 13 Lion 100 14 Wolf 10 15 Shark 10 https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-animals-that-kill-mo...

Poor sharks, they get one of the worst raps for how little damage they do to humans. I'm surprised to see dogs so high up on that list.

Well, think about it. A mosquito bite seems harmless, while getting torn to pieces by a shark, in a medium where you cannot even run it is scary as hell.

Re: Mosquitoes kill more than 700k people every year (2017)

#89

Post by mantap »

ahelwer wrote: post #32

I grew up in Manitoba so have a very healthy hatred of mosquitoes - 50 of them once followed me into a car during the https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1120044775024013312

Citation needed. Mosquito extermination and habit destruction has been going on in USA for 60 years at least. It is THE primary method of malaria and dengue fever prevention around the world and is supported by every public health body on earth.

Re: Mosquitoes kill more than 700k people every year (2017)

#90

Post by clairity »

throwaway894345 wrote: post #81
macintux wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Without a lockdown, it’s still possible. Latest estimates are 0.5-1 percent fatality rate, which maps to 2-3 million people here in the US, and if everyone got ill in a short succession, because it is very contagious, the death toll would certainly be higher. Recent birthday party, 20 people, every single one caught the disease.

> Latest estimates are 0.5-1 percent fatality rate I read just a couple of days ago that the IFR (infection fatality rate) is only ~0.25%-0.3%? Still ~four times higher than that of the flu, but not ten times greater.

yes, IFR was trending toward 0.2-0.3% even in march, and with time it's only become more likely that those are the bounds. flu averages around 0.1% IFR, so likely 2-3X as deadly.
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