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Idea Generation

blog.samaltman.com

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Re: Idea Generation

#101

Post by seleniumBubbles »

egypturnash wrote: post #88
RexetBlell wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A perfect killer example is globally accessible prediction markets. They always get shut down by governments. Isn’t it crazy that you currently can’t place a bet on a horse race or a presidential election in the US?

Do you have any killer examples that aren’t, um, totally illegal?

Having reliable, auditable, public protocols which can operate without the blessing of the world’s existing governments is precisely the point.

Killer examples include any products or services which would provide a net positive value to society but are currently outlawed within various geographic territories for superstitious reasons and/or to protect existing industries from competition.

Prediction markets are an excellent example here: a substantial body of research now indicates that 1) prediction markets are superior to all other strategies in predicting any quantifiable event (because they are “meta tools” which inherently incorporate the best information from all strategies) and 2) non-private markets can’t be used for manipulating elections, sponsoring assassinations, or incentivizing real-world action of any sort. (In any prediction market with a public order book, any attempted “action-incentivizing position” can be consumed by arbitrage until all that remains is a measure of the event’s real probability). For several decades, researchers from dozens of universities have lobbied for relaxing the ban on prediction markets in USA, with little progress to show. Until that ban is lifted (which could take decades longer), blockchain-based prediction markets will have no domestic competition.

Also worth noting: even in the presence of legal, centralized prediction markets, decentralized prediction market protocols may still be competitive because they require far less counterparty-risk, allowing them to safely support higher volumes and larger positions.

Re: Idea Generation

#102

Post by AtHeartEngineer »

renewiltord wrote: post #27
austincheney wrote: post #3

I have always found that entire scenario very odd. How are you a start up founder if you don’t know what you want to start up? I always look at that like a soldier jacked up on adrenaline wearing an arsenal of ammunition ready to destroy the enemy having forgotten to ask who the enemy is or where they are. Lost. Maybe if they just start spraying ammo at everybody the enemy will suddenly make themselves known and some…

I am sceptical too but it's not an unusual idea to think that perhaps you can just put smart people together and they'll work something out. God knows that much of that attitude is often lauded on HN for other things.

Agreed, I work in an environment with a lot of really smart people, but not everyone thinks outside the box or is ambitious in that way

Re: Idea Generation

#103

Post by rmm »

jameslk wrote: post #6

Having failed the startup game my fair share of times, I've found a more reliable way to come up with good ideas is to let others who need something give you ideas. Work in a specific industry long enough that you learn about the trade and type of problems and solutions needed. I currently focus on providing services to ecommerce companies, and I get to hear all the time about their pain points and things they wish t…

Very true. I work in mining (physical not data) and it’s helped immensely.

Re: Idea Generation

#104

Post by soylentgraham »

harikb wrote: post #57
nostrademons wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's two competing lenses of thought that bookend your struggle: On one hand, Sam's point is basically described by Paul Graham's essay on "Narrow and Deep" ideas [1]. You want an idea to have a few passionate users rather than lots of lukewarm users, because there's an activation energy to building a habit and if you're only lukewarm you're not going to get over it. As PG put it, "Sum that reaction over a whole p…

I digress, but I think the real turning point that helped YouTube was Apple requiring data plan for iPhone and convincing AT&T to offer unlimited data plan. So sometimes help will come from your rival :o

I thought YouTube's turning point was when users could make money.

Re: Idea Generation

#105

Post by nostrademons »

azinman2 wrote: post #64
s_r_n wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dapps haven't gone away. I'd say that trend has evolved into DeFi, which seems to be growing quickly.

Genuine question: what apps/technology is growing quickly with DeFi that can't otherwise be practically executed (for whatever reason) outside of a blockchain? I've yet to see a killer example.

Flash loans are one example. These are zero-collateral, low-fee loans that are paid back at the end of the transaction. If the loan fails to be paid back, the whole transaction that made it unwinds, which means the risk to the lender is zero despite the possibility of loans being millions of times greater than the borrower's assets.

They've been used mostly for questionable purposes (largely exploiting oracle attacks on poorly-written DEXes), but there's something very interesting about completely removing capital availability from the constraints on a market participant. It means any arbitrage opportunity can be exploited by anyone, regardless of how much it needs to be levered up to be worthwhile, and so basically democratizes financial profiteering.

Re: Idea Generation

#106

Post by Bellamy »

atupis wrote: post #82
nostrademons wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's two competing lenses of thought that bookend your struggle: On one hand, Sam's point is basically described by Paul Graham's essay on "Narrow and Deep" ideas [1]. You want an idea to have a few passionate users rather than lots of lukewarm users, because there's an activation energy to building a habit and if you're only lukewarm you're not going to get over it. As PG put it, "Sum that reaction over a whole p…

>grocery delivery I think the USA implementation is poor not the idea is bad. Here Finland K-ryhmä[1] did really nailed implementation and it is like 10x better than going to the supermarket. My mom and aunt both in their 70 started using this separately and both are saying they are not going to back in supermarkets after covid19. [1] https://www.k-ruoka.fi/kauppa

In Hamburg Germany they have Grüne Kiste (The Green Basket), which deliver high quality foods on weekly basis. Other services are also growing, but I have nothing but positive to say about Grüne Kiste.

Re: Idea Generation

#107

Post by Kiro »

Am I the only one with a list of over 1000 ideas that would all become billion dollar companies if I just had the time to do them all?

Re: Idea Generation

#108

Post by RexetBlell »

seleniumBubbles wrote: post #101
egypturnash wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any killer examples that aren’t, um, totally illegal?

Having reliable, auditable, public protocols which can operate without the blessing of the world’s existing governments is precisely the point. Killer examples include any products or services which would provide a net positive value to society but are currently outlawed within various geographic territories for superstitious reasons and/or to protect existing industries from competition. Prediction markets are an ex…

Decentralized prediction markets also offer global liquidity, so the counterparty can be located anywhere on earth. Also the friction and fees should be much lower. If someone in Mongolia wants to bet a million dollars against someone in Colombia today, it’s extremely hard to do without a blockchain (think about the fees and time to wire the money, who would you be wiring it to, etc). Prediction markets are not just for gambling, by the way. They could be used for earthquake insurance, for example.

Re: Idea Generation

#109

Post by jimhi »

asdf21 wrote: post #55

Frustrating article -- I have several killer ideas (and ideas for decent execution paths for them as well,) but I tend to get pigeon-holed as "just an idea guy" and generally invalidated.. So I've tried to learn to program to execute them myself, but that's a slow, long process, I'm an excellent Project Manager but a B- programmer, plus trying to wear every hat in a company is not exactly fun. I've seen so much talen…

Talent wasted on poor ideas is better than talent doing nothing. Wearing every hat is hard, otherwise more people would do it. Few people worth working with want to join a team that wouldn't exist without them.

What's that quote?

"Nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Unrewarded genius is almost a proverb."

Re: Idea Generation

#110

Post by LockAndLol »

austincheney wrote: post #3

I have always found that entire scenario very odd. How are you a start up founder if you don’t know what you want to start up? I always look at that like a soldier jacked up on adrenaline wearing an arsenal of ammunition ready to destroy the enemy having forgotten to ask who the enemy is or where they are. Lost. Maybe if they just start spraying ammo at everybody the enemy will suddenly make themselves known and some…

> I always look at that like a soldier jacked up on adrenaline wearing an arsenal of ammunition ready to destroy the enemy having forgotten to ask who the enemy is or where they are. Lost. Maybe if they just start spraying ammo at everybody the enemy will suddenly make themselves known and something will stick.

That is about the most American way of putting it.

It also describes America in the middle East and lots of Africa. Weapons had to be sold and/or money had to be made. So people were attacked and when people started shooting back, suddenly there was a reason to invade.

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