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Reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2

science.sciencemag.org

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Re: Reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2

#11

Post by henriquez »

SeanLuke wrote: post #6

That is one of the stupidest graphics I have ever seen in an academic journal article.

> For society to resume, measures designed to reduce aerosol transmission must be implemented

This is an opinion piece disguised as science. It’s presumptuous of a science writer to make determinations about whether and how society will be permitted to resume.

If we want people to be perfectly safe we’d also ban fast food, meat, alcohol, nicotine, driving and sex. But the goal of society is not to keep people 100% safe. Why are we okay with having our liberties trampled over an illness that the CDC estimates has a 0.26% death rate?

Re: Reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2

#12

Post by djsumdog »

I can't really take anything seriously anymore:

> Aerosols can accumulate, remain infectious in indoor air for hours

I remember Michael Osterholm said CoV2 wasn't airborne, but respiratory, and he made the distinction airborne viruses stay in the air for hours (like Measles). "Aerosols" would indicate they mean respiratory but then they talk about it sticking around for hours.

> silent shedders

We are told there are asymptomatic people who spread the illness, but there is also tons of research to show they may not (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32405162/) or that some of them weren't even asymptomatic; they had symptoms but no one asked (can't find that link).

This whole pieces seems like a long article to say "wear a mask," but all of us see people who wear a mask incorrectly or wear a cloth mask that isn't very effective against viral matter (https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-1342) and most people don't wash them daily, so they can build up moisture and bacteria (https://publichealth.uic.edu/news-stories/commentary-masks-f...). A lot of people treat them like a fashion accessory or just a thing they have to do and hang them up when they get home.

When states mandate masks, you're no longer asking people, and you brake the social contract. A lot of people do it just so they aren't shamed. A lot of people who don't wear masks do it as a political statement. When you boil it down ... it's all either political or shame.

There is a lot of explicit social conditioning and behavior modification going on here and it's sinister. I'm sick of pre-pubs that get contracted the following week and everyone going into hyper panic mode always. There are tons of secondary effects (people not going in for regular cancer screenings (https://unherd.com/thepost/professor-karol-sikora-fear-is-mo...), suicide attempts (https://archive.vn/N18t9), heart conditions, etc.) that will catch up with us.

I went into more detail earlier this month about getting fed up with our terrible information situation. This is not a time of honor:

https://battlepenguin.com/politics/this-is-not-a-time-of-hon...

Re: Reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2

#13

Post by djsumdog »

henriquez wrote: post #11
SeanLuke wrote: post #6

That is one of the stupidest graphics I have ever seen in an academic journal article.

> For society to resume, measures designed to reduce aerosol transmission must be implemented This is an opinion piece disguised as science. It’s presumptuous of a science writer to make determinations about whether and how society will be permitted to resume. If we want people to be perfectly safe we’d also ban fast food, meat, alcohol, nicotine, driving and sex. But the goal of society is not to keep people 100% sa…

This entire thing has showed what happens when political leaders don't properly evaluate risk. It's difficult to do so when something new comes along. I think Wendover did a great job of address this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NtX-Ibi21tU

Re: Reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2

#15

Post by nsxwolf »

How many steps of the scientific method should scientists need to get through before they can make policy? Throughout this pandemic we've been getting whipsawed by "science". Is a few months really enough time to do all the science on a question as difficult as the efficacy of masks during a novel virus pandemic?

Re: Reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2

#16

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

darkteflon wrote: post #10
newacct583 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one at the CDC (at least no career bureaucrat) ever denied masks were effective, though. It's true that there was concern early on that a public run on masks would put health care workers in jeopardy, so people were absolutely told not to try to procure them. And it's also true that the WHO's messaging on this subject was terribly confusing. But the idea that "Hah! The elites were WRONG about masks!" is just... we…

I’m based in Tokyo and one of the most frustrating things for me personally is that ~90% of foreigners (or people who are visibly foreigners) are not wearing masks when out and about. This despite the fact that the Japanese are almost uniformly wearing them. We are, after all, in the middle of a pandemic. Is this down to the WHO’s early messaging fumbles, misplaced machismo, ignorance, or what? When foreigners here d…

All of the people I've discussed it with say that they think masks are dehumanizing. I suspect that there's an association with criminality too.

Re: Reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2

#17

Post by stubish »

newacct583 wrote: post #3
dboreham wrote: post #2

Finally. What was obvious from the Diamond Princess data months ago has been acknowledged.

Can you be more specific on what you think was going unacknowledged? The abstract is just "wear masks and test like crazy". Which has been pretty much universal consensus since March. There's a whole industry of amateur mask makers on Etsy at this point.

It depends on the region. This sort of study is still greatly needed in places. Like Australia, where the official statement is: "Surgical masks in the community are only helpful in preventing people who have coronavirus disease from spreading it to others. If you are well, you do not need to wear a surgical mask as there is little evidence supporting the widespread use of surgical masks in healthy people to prevent transmission in public" [ https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/coronavirus... ]

Check out Australian news sites to see all the maskless people.

Re: Reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2

#18

Post by garmaine »

coding123 wrote: post #4
newacct583 wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you be more specific on what you think was going unacknowledged? The abstract is just "wear masks and test like crazy". Which has been pretty much universal consensus since March. There's a whole industry of amateur mask makers on Etsy at this point.

Except that everyone stopped wearing masks about two weeks ago.

In the part of America I live, you cannot enter buildings or public spaces without a mask. Not everyone has the same policies.

Re: Reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2

#19

Post by rspicer »

KCUOJJQJ wrote: post #14

>Masks reduce airborne transmission. Not as much as Ebola suits: https://www.welt.de/img/gesundheit/mobile130688133/039162761... 1 Ebola suit for everyone, with an air supply rucksack.

You try finding a PAPR in stock for sale to anyone who isn't a purchaser for a medical provider or first responder agency right now..

True story: I almost bought a 3M PAPR last fall because I wanted it for a "The Expanse" prop replica space suit I've been thinking about building. Decided that a few hundred bucks was too much to spend for the look of something alone, though. That would've been the best gratuitous purchase I ever made, in hindsight. Of course I probably still wouldn't be able to get filters for the thing, and properly caring for and disinfecting non-disposable hardware like that is nontrivial...

Re: Reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2

#20

Post by sacred_numbers »

henriquez wrote: post #11
SeanLuke wrote: post #6

That is one of the stupidest graphics I have ever seen in an academic journal article.

> For society to resume, measures designed to reduce aerosol transmission must be implemented This is an opinion piece disguised as science. It’s presumptuous of a science writer to make determinations about whether and how society will be permitted to resume. If we want people to be perfectly safe we’d also ban fast food, meat, alcohol, nicotine, driving and sex. But the goal of society is not to keep people 100% sa…

Because the death rate is way higher than 0.26%. If the CDC really thinks it's that low for the general population then they are wrong. The general consensus I have seen, based on antibody tests in New York, Italy, Sweden, and Spain point to a death rate between 0.75% and 1.25% for most developed nations. For less developed nations (which, to be fair, is most of the world) the death rate will be lower because there are fewer old people. I agree that we don't have to shut down everything, but everyone should be wearing masks as much as possible in public. Public smoking is highly restricted, at least partially because of the risks of secondhand smoke, and the risks of COVID-19 are way higher than that. People can do what they want at home, but we have to share public spaces. It's not right for someone else to make decisions that endanger me and my family just because they don't care about the risk.
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