Rural Cities Overtake NYC in per Capita Covid-19 Cases
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Rural Cities Overtake NYC in per Capita Covid-19 Cases
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Re: Rural Cities Overtake NYC in per Capita Covid-19 Cases
#2Direct anchor link to the NYT source data table: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/23/upshot/five-w...
Re: Rural Cities Overtake NYC in per Capita Covid-19 Cases
#3This post is from a NYTimes story from about a month ago:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/23/upshot/five-w...
Those very few limited rural cities that were ahead of NYC at the time had things like prisons and meat packing plants.
The NY Times has a bunch of stats here they keep updated, including current Per Capita numbers:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-c...
Re: Rural Cities Overtake NYC in per Capita Covid-19 Cases
#4The implication of the title, that rural cities in general have overtaken NYC isn't necessarily backed up by the data, unless it can be shown to be a pattern in a huge number of rural cities, such the the combined population of those reaches a level of statistical significance. The data in the NYT article also shows more rural cities that have lower case rates than NYC.
The more likely scenario is that these rural cities with higher case rates than NYC represent their own individual outbreaks of the pandemic. That might become more of a pattern, especially as shelter-in-place restrictions are increasingly lifted, but it's too early to make that prediction.
Re: Rural Cities Overtake NYC in per Capita Covid-19 Cases
#5I'm not sure this is meaningful. Marion Ohio, for example, has 36,837 people (66,000 people in the county). The whole county has had 23 deaths. That works out to 35-62 deaths per 100,000 (depending on how many were in the city versus the rest of the county). NYC is at 205 deaths per 100,000.
Re: Rural Cities Overtake NYC in per Capita Covid-19 Cases
#6TLDR: Three rural cities.
Given some basic assumptions about the distribution of case rates, it's not at all surprising that a few cities from that fairly large set happen to exceed NYC.
Nothing to see here.
Re: Rural Cities Overtake NYC in per Capita Covid-19 Cases
#7I'm not sure this is meaningful. Marion Ohio, for example, has 36,837 people (66,000 people in the county). The whole county has had 23 deaths. That works out to 35-62 deaths per 100,000 (depending on how many were in the city versus the rest of the county). NYC is at 205 deaths per 100,000.
It maybe due to NY's policy at the start of the outbreak, which put recovering Covid patients in nursing homes. It probably spiked their death count without causing a corresponding spike in cases.
Re: Rural Cities Overtake NYC in per Capita Covid-19 Cases
#8This post is from a NYTimes story from about a month ago: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/23/upshot/five-w... Those very few limited rural cities that were ahead of NYC at the time had things like prisons and meat packing plants. The NY Times has a bunch of stats here they keep updated, including current Per Capita numbers: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-c...
Yep, that's true where I'm from. The county has a total of maybe a dozen or so cases. But we have two correctional facilities that have almost an order of magnitude more. The next city over has hundreds of cases, but they also have a meat packing plant where most of these are (in addition to their own correctional facilities and one or more federal ones).
Re: Rural Cities Overtake NYC in per Capita Covid-19 Cases
#9Rural Cities is an oxymoron. If it's a city, by definition, it's not rural.
You could say 'smaller cities' or any number of other things.
Re: Rural Cities Overtake NYC in per Capita Covid-19 Cases
#10The implication of the title, that rural cities in general have overtaken NYC isn't necessarily backed up by the data, unless it can be shown to be a pattern in a huge number of rural cities, such the the combined population of those reaches a level of statistical significance. The data in the NYT article also shows more rural cities that have lower case rates than NYC. The more likely scenario is that these rural ci…
The observation actually perfectly fits a statistical principle that you're just going to see more extremes (lower and larger per capital cases) in smaller populations because probability.