Earlier quoted context omitted.
Or they took more risks than you and it paid off. Or they just happened to be in the right place at the right time. Or...
Over the course of your entire life, the statistical expected values of the "gambles" tend to net out.
A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)
331–340 of 438 posts
Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)
#332This article puts it better than I ever could. I had a similar reaction when I read extremely critical press coverage of some VCs in Europe investing in YPlan, which eventually sold for a nominal amount to Time Out London. The synopsis of all the coverage was: "How could they have spent all that money? And how could the investors have been so STUPID?" My friend Fred Destin wrote a great essay on this[1], and I'll do…
Regarding sports. Unfortunately, let's not discount the politics and human nature involved in fielding a team. Some players get to play because of their salary, some players get to play because of their relationship with the coach, some players get to play because they're trade bait, some coaches really are wrong, etc. https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/maple-leafs... Coaches are human too. They are jus…
I mean, insofar as we’re measuring teams by winning games, rather than measuring teams by how profitable they are, we’re probably not measuring their inclusive fitness. Winning doesn’t help you if nobody pays attention; and, vice versa, making money helps you (in the long term) even if you don’t win.
Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)
#333Earlier quoted context omitted.
SO we are to be ruled by experts? Show me the model produced by he experts that has been right? Show me the science behind the idea of quarantining the entire population in order to slow the spread of Covid-19. There is science behind quarantining sick people - but not healthy people. Show me the science behind the social distancing - 6 foot rule? I mean really - where IS the science to those things? These experts ar…
The Imperial College paper that kicked off the whole thing has plenty of details on various quarantining scenarios, including full population quarantine and at risk population quarantine, or any combination thereof. Did you read it? Do you not agree with the simulations or what are your objections?
Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)
#334Earlier quoted context omitted.
What if I told you that desire to "travel" can be equally phony, a result of careful marketing tactics, a carrot on a stick. If only I had more money I'd travel the world and volunteer and become an Instagramer or Youtuber and just blog about the best places to get coconut water on the beach, that would be perfect. Now back to the office. As Zizek often says, ideology shows itself exactly in the ways that you try to…
I wholeheartedly agree with the sentiment, but of all the dreams to pin your critique on, I’d recommend not using travel or public service. While there is definitely consumerist travel of the Instagram variety and plenty of misguided philanthropy, there’s a beautiful baby in that bathwater.
My point is not to shit on philanthropy though it's a bit more nuanced.
So there are some who do go to save the kids a continent away, and who gave up their jobs and then go to travel the world, the interesting thing is not them, but why they are fascinating to the audience. It's all about "if only I could do that, then..." A dream, an outlet. And it has to be far away.
How about this (nothing personal). When did you last talk with your family members' and friends' deep thoughts, fears, desires, worries and things of pride, cherished achievements, aspired goals etc. Not in an interrogation way, but naturally, while doing activities, cooking, fishing, sitting at the campfire. How many of them can you rely on to know yours?
How often have you talked with your neighbors? How is your local community (street, apartment block) doing, what are the problems, is someone in need of help because their kid is sick?
I found this articulated really well in Jordan Peterson's writing (I know, divisive guy). The point isn't to denounce faraway volunteering and a philanthropic traveler lifestyle. Rather that people are setting up dreams at a safe distance that they can then safely regard as unattainable.
It's much more scary to think of helping people in your apartment block, because eww, those people are nasty they are loud, they cook smelly cabbage on Sundays, they are too dumb for your liking. If only you had some angelic far away people who are simply waiting for you as their savior, it would be so much easier.
This kind of "set your house in order first" idea is upsetting, but humans and societies are complex enough that you have to get a feel for how things go wrong and how they go right, if you learn by setting yourself straight first, then attend to your family and close friends, then the community etc. Yes, your neighbor may betray you and always beg you for loans if you appear to philanthropic. True. You'll have the same issue when trying to hand out stuff to Ukrainians or the Syrians. Which group is the "good guys"? Are you being manipulated, etc.?
It's complicated, but we can push it all away to dreamland by saying, one day, I will travel and have a beachfront house in Africa and help all the kids (or one of these). Till then, I hammer away to get that promotion.
Again, travelling can be extremely beneficial if you have the right mindset and prepare. You can see different ways of living, different ways of thinking, mentalities, types of interactions. Or simply different sceneries than the one at home. But as someone who has traveled to some places and swam at beautiful beaches, it isn't all that euphoric in itself. Perhaps this is a "no shit, Sherlock" type of claim, but actually sunbathing on the Copacabana isn't that much better than sunbathing by the lakeside in Hungary (but one is more useful than the other in spiting your colleagues). It's more about the people you're bonding with while doing it. Plus if you actually interact with locals, but many just stay in their hotel resort. And you could indeed already do many facets of it at home, bringing your communities closer, but of course everything incentivizes us away from this. (People constantly move around etc.)
(PS. I'm crap at all of the above and just ranting)
Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)
#335Earlier quoted context omitted.
SO we are to be ruled by experts? Show me the model produced by he experts that has been right? Show me the science behind the idea of quarantining the entire population in order to slow the spread of Covid-19. There is science behind quarantining sick people - but not healthy people. Show me the science behind the social distancing - 6 foot rule? I mean really - where IS the science to those things? These experts ar…
The word quarantine originated from quarantining all people entering an area a certain number of days. Not just visibly sick people.
to be precise, literally 40 days ("quaranta" means 40 in Italian).
Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)
#336Whenever you see someone who you believe to be an idiot succeeding, it usually means they're really good at the game and you don't even understand what the game is .
Called being born rich.
Plenty of idiots succeed because success was granted to them the day they were born.
____________
Also, a lot of times when you see an idiot succeeding, the idiot is a face for people to criticize while the master minds go about doing their magic, unseen.
Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)
#337While I agree with the main thrust of the article (Chesterton's fence, etc.), the author seems to take as a given the fact that Netflix is sliding back into becoming as expensive as cable, because the content providers are setting the prices. But Netflix's value is not from competing against cable on price, it's competing against piracy on convenience . Content providers will never again see the same profits, because…
There has been enough time for people to get locked into walled gardens.
Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)
#338Earlier quoted context omitted.
It blows my mind how people can come here and attempt to write a serious answer claiming the CEO "rarely" knows something his armchair critic doesn't (as a basis for their "bad" decision). Then proceed to peddle cliches and conspiracies. Also, shareholders aren't stupid, they usually reward CEOs for good business decisions and so does the board. Sometimes it's unclear what is better long-term and short-term results a…
... to the extent you consider one of the most influential and best-researched management books a "cliche and conspiracy." I'll mention I didn't claim that a CEO rarely knows something a critic doesn't; just that things like the CEO's greater understanding of something like market dynamics are rarely the basis of what is externally perceived to be a "bad" decision by an armchair critic. The basis is usually political…
Can you point me to a summary that makes this claim? Because https://www.slideshare.net/johnnemo/power-by-jeffrey-pfeffer... certainly doesn't.
> You know nothing about my background. It just makes you look like you're either a jerk, or ran out of sound arguments.
You made 2 appeals to authority - of dubious authenticity - and I have no reason to assume you wouldn't make a 3rd if you thought it'd give you extra points. My background is: ex-CEO.
Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)
#339Whenever you see someone who you believe to be an idiot succeeding, it usually means they're really good at the game and you don't even understand what the game is .
> really good at the game Called being born rich. Plenty of idiots succeed because success was granted to them the day they were born. ____________ Also, a lot of times when you see an idiot succeeding, the idiot is a face for people to criticize while the master minds go about doing their magic, unseen.
Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)
#340I kept thinking this when the 'cybertruck' was unveiled. Suddenly everyone around me was explaining in detail why this truck was going to be a complete fiasco and a danger to everyone else on the road. I'll happily acknowledge that Musk is off his rocker, but can people really think that he doesn't know how to make a car? ( I'll admit a soft spot for the thing after someone pointed out it looks like what happens when…
I will fully admit that Musk knows how to make a car. He’s a car person and had a history of owning and enjoying sporty luxury cars before Tesla. But he’s not a truck person.
I don't know if the cybertruck is a good or bad idea. I don't know if it's going to succeed or fail. I don't know how anyone can possibly declare with confidence that they do know how the truck will do when released.