Live data from Hacker News

A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)

theatlantic.com

281–290 of 438 posts

Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)

#281
post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure they are smart, but you'll find smarter people at any theoretical physics department, if we're talking IQ. Also, I don't think we are talking about rich as in global top 100, what I at least meant more mundane financial success, like earning $1 m a year. At that level, you definitely don't need to be a genius, I'd say if anything a genius is much less likely to make a million a year.

People who don't try to become rich probably won't. That much is clear. When people pursue theoretical physics they knowingly choose a career that cuts off almost all paths to wealth. The question "so, why aren't you rich?" doesn't apply to people who aren't even trying. For success within theoretical physics you see, again, exactly how important raw intelligence is. Charisma and people skills are nice, but top resea…

"For success within theoretical physics you see, again, exactly how important raw intelligence is. Charisma and people skills are nice, but top researchers are disproportionately brilliant. This isn't nearly as true in those scientific fields where research results are unverifiable. We've seen this in the recent months with the embarrassing quality of epidemiological modeling."

I actually believed physics has repeated run into the problem where large swaths of research is in fact unverifiable and exists purely on a theoretical basis until technology has caught up with the theory. Wasn't there a large discussion within the past 12 months or so about the many flaws of the field of physics, including the repeating of the same mistakes due to not wanting to stray too far from the existing literature? Doesn't this field also have large swaths of theories with plenty of mathematics behind both that are also mutually exclusive?

If I would think about a field with a long history of verified research, physics would most certainly not be up there. I'd say chemistry has physics beat there for example.

Additionally, epidemiological modeling has to deal with real data from sources whose trustworthiness are largely only somewhat known and somehow project this into the future. This is a garbage in, garbage out situation and I don't know if this should reflect on the field overall. It'd be like judging ML as a field based off of a problem case in which all training data has untrustworthy labels.

Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)

#282
post #249

A much more thoughtful treatment of this problem is "The Dictator's Handbook." There are three possible explanations: 1) The CEO knows something I don't. 2) The CEO is dumb. Those are rarely it. The third one is: 3) The CEO is optimizing for personal wealth / fame / success, and there are political considerations. Most CEOs can recognize that a business decision can be absolutely the right thing to do for the busines…

I would postulate that 3) is indistinguishable from doing a great job as CEO the vast majority of the time. Only very occasionally are the personal interests of the CEO in conflict with those of the company and its owners.

Most CEOs can recognize that a business decision can be absolutely the right thing to do for the business and not make that decision if it either would cost them (1) their standing with shareholders (2) their annual bonus (3) their standing with the board (4) their standing with internal constituents.

Again, you'll have to provide some compelling evidence or some very good arguments to convince me that the cases where the wishes of the board and/or the shareholders are in conflict with what is best for the business, are anything other than a rarity.

The key skill CEOs need to be CEOs can be summarized as: "How to become a CEO."

That's a very cynical and reductionist view. I prefer to think in terms of peacetime and wartime generals. In peacetime (ie. when the market forces make it difficult to fail for example because you have a monopoly), I think it's probably true that a very important requirement for rising to the top, is political skill. In a wartime, ie. in a highly competitive market, good business people rise to the top.

You fail to mention the 4th possibility (alluded to in the article): Market conditions sometimes change and the CEO is left with no good options. If you had a wildly successful business selling abacuses and someone suddenly introduces a low cost electronic calculator, there's probably not much you can do a CEO to prevent you market from shrinking. Of course you could try to change your business from making abacuses to making calculators in an attempt to hang on to your customers, but there's is also nothing about manufacturing abacuses that translates into creating electronic calculators, so the chances of that succeeding are slim to none.

Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)

#283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> He also had parents that gave him a so-called "three hundred thousand dollar investment" (more money than most people see in a lifetime even while working hard for their family, dedicating most of their life to work and barely managing to enjoy life) Jeff Bezos also had a teen mother, a biological father that abandoned him, and a Cuban immigrant father that came to the US alone at 16 with nothing and no ability to…

I don't know much about Jeff Bezos so I try to reserve my judgement about him. But I am confused - how does one come from a poor family and then receive a $300k loan from said family?

The poor family through hard work and saving became a moderately wealthy family over time.

Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)

#284
post #81

This article puts it better than I ever could. I had a similar reaction when I read extremely critical press coverage of some VCs in Europe investing in YPlan, which eventually sold for a nominal amount to Time Out London. The synopsis of all the coverage was: "How could they have spent all that money? And how could the investors have been so STUPID?" My friend Fred Destin wrote a great essay on this[1], and I'll do…

Scale this up to anything and you will want to be governed by a benevolent dictator. Not even senators themselves read the full bills they vote on, and I don't blame them with it being hundreds of pages of reading that could easily be parted out to aides, but the electorate certainly doesn't have this advantage. Maybe 1% of voters are truly informed.

It's perfectly fine not to be informed (or interested!) in most topics. It only becomes dangerous when you're uninformed but trust your own opinion more than the experts. Popular examples are climate change, or the COVID-19 response.

Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)

#285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or maybe you do, but simply refuse to play the game due to ethical and moral grounds.

I don't see how that applies here. There are lots of ways to make high income that have no ethical dilemmas.

People with high incomes from sources with no ethical dilemmas may also think that there are successful idiots. And not only because they do not understand the game the idiot is playing.

Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)

#286
post #249

A much more thoughtful treatment of this problem is "The Dictator's Handbook." There are three possible explanations: 1) The CEO knows something I don't. 2) The CEO is dumb. Those are rarely it. The third one is: 3) The CEO is optimizing for personal wealth / fame / success, and there are political considerations. Most CEOs can recognize that a business decision can be absolutely the right thing to do for the busines…

The Dictator's Handbook would say the CEO is optimizing for survival as CEO. The book was subtitled, "the logic of political survival," and is based on a game theory based model called the predictioneers game. It was written precisely as a more useful quantitative tool to describe these things instead of just moralizing about them.

It means this CEO makes decisions that first secure her ability to maintain benefits to the essential people who keep her in that position, second, to prevent influential people from coordinating for leverage themselves to become new essentials she'd be accountable to, and third, maintaining the pipeline funnel of interchangeables to keep those influentials in line. The goal is to reduce the size of the coalition you need to please to maintain the ability to keep making decisions in that role.

The moralistic version of this is the Gervais Principle from Ribbonfarm that gets posted here periodically. In that model, instead of Smith and DeMesquita's leader managing coalitions of essentials, influentials, and interchangeables, you have the Gervais psychopath using idiots to manage losers. It's just a different description of the same mechanisms.

There is a third related model, which describes how, where to do any good in the world at all, you need the power to do it, and obtaining and sustaining that ability long enough to do the good you intend to becomes %95 of the work, with vary little left over for benevolence and altruism. The path to that is straightforward and achievable, as evidenced by how many objectively unremarkable people seem to achieve it. It's just a matter of desiring that over all the substitutes and distractions that keep you comfortably in your place.

Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)

#287

I've been learning this slowly over the last few years. I was a typical science guy. Then a close friend dragged me to the gym (which was just foreat heads right?). And it really helped with my depression and now it's a major activity for me. Same for Networking and Sales skills and Watching Sports and Foreign languages... Embarrassed me would like to publically apologies for assuming everyone else is an idiot and sh…

[deleted]

Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)

#288
post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure they are smart, but you'll find smarter people at any theoretical physics department, if we're talking IQ. Also, I don't think we are talking about rich as in global top 100, what I at least meant more mundane financial success, like earning $1 m a year. At that level, you definitely don't need to be a genius, I'd say if anything a genius is much less likely to make a million a year.

People who don't try to become rich probably won't. That much is clear. When people pursue theoretical physics they knowingly choose a career that cuts off almost all paths to wealth. The question "so, why aren't you rich?" doesn't apply to people who aren't even trying. For success within theoretical physics you see, again, exactly how important raw intelligence is. Charisma and people skills are nice, but top resea…

That’s my point. I am talking about wealthy people, not fantastically ultra rich.

Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)

#289

While I agree with the article, it is important to distinguish the macro from the micro point of view. From the micro point of view, a talented individual has a greater a priori probability to reach a high level of success than a moderately gifted one. On the other hand, from the macro point of view of the entire society, the probability to find moderately gifted individuals at the top levels of success is greater th…

> the probability to find moderately gifted individuals at the top levels of success is greater than that of finding there very talented ones, because moderately gifted people are much more numerous

That is exactly what Bayes' theorem predicts.

Many other conclusions , erroneously, seem more intuitively right, thou. Statistics is hard to master as our brains biases are strong forces.

Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)

#290
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is sadly very true - trying to actually be a kind person really limits how well you can play "the game". There's no good solution to this either - if there was more kindness in the world, then that would just create even more opportunities for the people playing the game to get ahead, because they would have more victims to exploit.

One key thing about the game is the definition of "being ahead", and in a way, the meaning you want your life to have. If the definition of being ahead is to work in upper management, or at trendy FAANG making a large amount of money then you are kind-of forced to play the game in order to "get ahead". However, if your version of getting ahead is to have a loving family, or to spend time on the hobbies you like or tr…

In some ways one goes alongside another, it's getting more difficult financially to have a loving family, do hobbies, travelling unless you earn enough money. You have to play the game a lot to be able to have things
Post reply on HN