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A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)

theatlantic.com

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Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)

#51
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or their family donated enough money to an Ivy to have a building named after them.

He said success, not wealth. Yes, obviously someone inheriting their parents' billion dollar business is wealthy, but I wouldn't consider them successful unless they've done something on their own.

No, but starting with wealth makes it much easier to succeed at other things.

Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)

#52

What's ironic to me is (IMO) Netflix is probably the shrewdest big company in existence now. Hastings has dominated not one but two markets, the second obviously larger and more insurmountable than the first. Almost Every single decision they make (including and especially ones that make customers unhappy, like their shitty browsing experience) seems so calculated and thoughtful it's just amazing. Even I thought Disn…

Meh, Netflix is one of many for me. Would be happy if it didn't exist, to watch other stuff on other streaming and I don't think they necessarily have the best content. Netflix try's to get you hooked on their originals, but the problem with that is once you binged a series you want something else - they cant keep feeding you the crack that is that current series because they take months to produce, so you switch to…

The fact that you're on it is 90% of the strategy.

Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)

#53
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or their family donated enough money to an Ivy to have a building named after them.

That's not "succeding" though. I like to give Trump as an example: everyone loves to blast him for being an idiot. Is he a good president? No. Is he good at the game, but most people totally miss what his game is? I claim, yes. It's unfortunate that he managed to play the US election system for his own purposes, but that doesn't mean he's just incompetent at everything. E.g. he's a rather good populist - that may not…

Which leads to the following: How do you measure if someone is a good president? What measurements do you use to claim Trump is not a good president?

Surely it can't be approval ratings since you can't expect public to understand nuances behind the decisions and what the president actually has to be doing? It can't be just GDP because GDP might have been going up anyway? It can't be what the president is saying in public and how many of those facts are wrong since this doesn't mean what actual decisions the president is making.

Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)

#54

While I agree with the article, it is important to distinguish the macro from the micro point of view. From the micro point of view, a talented individual has a greater a priori probability to reach a high level of success than a moderately gifted one. On the other hand, from the macro point of view of the entire society, the probability to find moderately gifted individuals at the top levels of success is greater th…

All of these are good factors, but don't leave out ego. Many smart people would rather be "right" and preserve their ego than make money.

And that many smart people have better things to do with their time than making more money. I have everything I need and really want. I much rather play with my three year old son in the garden than being able to afford a new Tesla.

Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)

#55
People call people idiots instead of trying to understand how they made a mistake because of fundamental attribution error. We all do it.

People are predominantly successful because of luck. Opportunity, connections, upbringing, all luck. Yes, you still need to make the right decision at the right time.

There is a pernicious tendency to make a fallacious argument for intelligence because of success; that is, people become convinced of intelligence because of success. The most obvious example today is the president of the USA. He is convinced of his own intelligence because clearly he is one of the most successful people in the country. I don't think many reasonable people would argue for his genius. On the other end of the spectrum, it seems obvious to me that in the billions of poor people on this planet there is an unknown genius unable to escape his or her circumstances.

We make mistakes. We don't try to understand the mistakes of others as we call them idiots. We are not necessarily capable of succeeding even if we are smarter than those that have.

Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)

#56
I agree with the premise of this article. That armchair quarterbacking is rarely helpful and usually oversimplified.

But I dislike the common implication in the headline, which is that intelligence somehow always equates to wealth.

First of all, it's not always easy to judge how wealthy another person is, no matter their profession or outward appearance.

Secondly, I think we all need to disuade ourselves of the notion that everyone in the world wants to become wealthy. Plenty of extremely intelligent people are perfectly happy where they are and are perhaps smarter for not chasing wealth like all those genius entrepreneurs. Just look at the lives of those we idolize so much for their success. Do you really want that life? A lot don't. And there is a good chance people more intelligent than those "successful" people don't want that life either.

Additionally, I know quite a few wealthy people that are rather dim. But they were hard workers and an opportunity presented itself because they were at the right place at the right time and they took advantage of that opportunity and worked it dry.

Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)

#57
post #39

Whenever you see someone who you believe to be an idiot succeeding, it usually means they're really good at the game and you don't even understand what the game is .

So Trump is really good at the political game, for instance?

Is there a more powerful political position he could have?

Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)

#58
post #19

To answer the question posed in the title (and yes, I read the fluffy article) - luck decides who gets rich.

True, but you can't get lucky when you keep sitting on your couch.

Yes you can. You just had to pop out of the right vagina.

Re: A lot of “idiotic” things have reasonable explanations (2011)

#59
post #39

Whenever you see someone who you believe to be an idiot succeeding, it usually means they're really good at the game and you don't even understand what the game is .

So Trump is really good at the political game, for instance?

He did become President of the USA so I think the answer is yes.
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