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Why is AI so useless for business?

mebassett.info

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Re: Why is AI so useless for business?

#131
post #2

The hardest things to automate are always the things that are so easy for us they don't even register consciously

While true for some things, it's not for others. In our application, one key operation is that the user is required to classify a line item based on the text description. There's a huge code list of possible classifications, and the user has to pick one that is the most correct. This is definitely a task that registers consciously. And, while most of the time it's fairly easy for trained users, there are often cases…

It's impossible to know the fabric there. So humans would just guess and often be wrong. That system needs an "unknown material" code.

Re: Why is AI so useless for business?

#132
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Train two AIs and have them check each others work. This must have been done already? No?

Are you training the two AIs on the same data set? If so, won't they be likely to make the same sorts of errors rather than making different errors and thus providing an effective check on each other?

Good point, you would have to train them on separate data sets. I wonder how the error rate would differ from training one model on all the data.

Re: Why is AI so useless for business?

#133

AI is terrible at dealing with unexpected events. Games AI is good at are relatively deterministic, i.e. all possible outcomes are known. Replicating art and images is the same way. If you could script new combat units in a video game on the fly or tweak the rules slightly, the human would slaughter the AI when an equally skilled human opponent would not lose so easily or even necessarily lose at all. You can see thi…

>You can see this in games like Galactic Civilizations where you can build your own units and unusual combos confuse the heck out of the computer opponent.

AIs will do the same to humans when trained against other machines, instead of being trained on human match data. Since the AIs will try out things most humans would think are illegal, thus not use them in regular matches. Like when Chamley-Watson first struck an opponent with his foil from behind his back.

Re: Why is AI so useless for business?

#134
At lot of this has to do with a move away from solid statistical workflows within an already trend prone field. Computer Science departments have only widened the cultural gap between their work an that of the Statisticians (you know the ones you need around to explain what your model is doing). Hiring for ML/AI sounds better than hiring a bunch of Statisticians which cannot be expected to deliver product.

Re: Why is AI so useless for business?

#135
post #38

People try to apply AI to high-risk problems that smart people can't solve. When AI is applied to lower risk probelms that are usually easy for people to solve, we seem to get great results (i.e. recommendation engines).

Never in my life I encountered a good recommendation engine, let alone a great one.

It's much easier to build a rec-engine that uses user data to make recommendations than it is to design one that analyzes intrinsic properties of items to build recommendations. Think how Spotify recommends music based on what other people who listen to this song like. This favors popular music. They could build an engine that analyzes musical characteristics to make recommendations, which would eliminate the popularity bias, but introduce others.

Re: Why is AI so useless for business?

#136
> We've taught computers to beat the most advanced players in the most complex games. We've taught them to drive cars and create photo-realistic videos and images of people.

No, we haven't. I mean, we've made progress in those areas, but there's still a long way to go.

The best AI in Starcraft, AlphaStar, still can't beat the strongest players without relying on simply out-clicking them.

Driverless cars are still in the testing and development phase, none of them are smart enough yet for widespread deployment.

Re: Why is AI so useless for business?

#137
There is an implicit, but, in my opinion, wrong assumption here that AI should be able to do tasks like extract data from PDFs or convert Excel spreadsheets into some format. Nothing about these tasks requires intelligence - a fixed process solves the problem. Asking AI extract data from a PDF is akin to asking it to develop a process from vague inputs - a far cry from even the most advanced AI systems today.

Re: Why is AI so useless for business?

#138

It's sneaking in, just not announcing itself. I used to work for a really well-known medical dictation/transcription, documentation, and coding (in the medical billing sense) company. They're using ML models all over for speech to text, document analysis, etc. It enables some very real efficiency gains but it's not positioned the same as something like IBM's Watson and it's somewhat ridiculous AI claims.

I'm surprised to hear this organisation is successfully doing ML speech to text. Is it running 100% of volume in production? Or is it more of a pilot type thing? I know of a French multinational bank that just tried for 2 years to get a ML speech transcription up and running, for transcribing conversations with customers, but due to unreliable results, recently put the project on ice. Their experience was much along…

I think the expectation of "drop some AI in" and do XYZ job is off in the same way that "we're going to drop a humanoid robot in" and do XYZ job is off.

Where I've seen it used well is as a piece in a larger system of automation. In the healthcare case, it's doing a first pass at transcribing an audio dictation so that a transcriptionist can then start with a 90%+ accurate document.

This is tough, their role shifts some (more editor/correctionist than true transcriber) and not everyone makes that transition well, but the end result is 2x+ efficiency gains.

Re: Why is AI so useless for business?

#139
In fact, the author could actually dig further and look at the potential losses an "AI-fied" solution could bring forth.

1. Unexplainable algorithms that cannot demonstrate fairness and biased algorithms - causing firms to be dragged to court for discrimination - where AI was used for decision making which impacted lives/careers (lending, credit, recruitment, medical procedure suggestion, financial modeling etc - just to name a few)

2. Biased algorithms resulting in small tainted outputs that could later snowball into a larger loss that get built over slow leaks over time. (Few AI based cloud app/infra monitoring systems ending up deciding the wrong scaleout factor/sizing - based on past history but not considering real situational context/need - resulting in a net loss over a larger time)

3. Some AIfied solution just outright denying users the level of control that's really warranted. ("full automatic , no manual" mode). This mostly happens where the buyer never uses it firsthand but buys based on brochure/ppt walkthroughs, and real users are disconnected from the decision making ivory towers. The risk ibeing these systems getting into the way, instead of aiding productivity, they end up being another JIRA - a hassle one could really do without.

Re: Why is AI so useless for business?

#140
I like to focus on the need for a spec.

The hardest part about programming is that you have to say what you want to happen clearly and precisely. You can't just say "I want a text editor", you need to say all sorts of specific things about how the cursor moves through the text and how you decide what text is displayed on the screen when there is too much to show all at once and how line-wraps work and whether you acknowledge the existence of "fonts", and what happens when you click randomly on every pixel of the display.

The program usually shouldn't be the spec, but you can't write the program without actually specifying everything that can possibly happen over the course of that program executing.

One of the things that makes AI/ML so hard is that we don't want to write a spec, most of the time. If we could write a precise spec that a computer could understand, we've typically already written the program we want. There are some cases where we can, like games or math, but most of the time, what we want to do is provide our AI/ML with a bunch of data and say "you figure out what I mean". "Label the pictures of dogs", "identify the high-risk loan applicants", and so forth.

Our AI/ML is actually solving two problems: first, it has to come up with a spec on its own, and then, it has to create a solution to it.

And here is where things get rough: we generally don't know what spec our AI/ML came up with. Did we train a model to identify dogs, or to identify dog collars? Does this model find high-risk loan applicants, or people of certain ethnic backgrounds?

The problem with many real-world and business applications for AI/ML is that the spec is really, really important.

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