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Coronavirus: How scared should we be?

bbc.com

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Re: Coronavirus: How scared should we be?

#11

Post by pmorici »

I really dislike the way the discussion around this has been framed. It seems to have centered around two polar extremes. On on end you have the idea that we should stay in "lockdown" until there is a cure or vaccine. On the other end you've got the "it's just the flu" crowd who doesn't want any public life restrictions while also nay saying zero cost things like masks that greatly reduce risk.

Neither of those positions seems reasonable. Where are the reasonable leaders that recognize that it isn't practical to to have a "lockdown" waiting for a vaccine that is going to take a year in the most optimistic case while at the same time recognizing that promoting small inexpensive behavior changes that keep this in check and reduce risk while that plays out is the way to prevent the need for more draconian measures.

I also think the idea that taking any precaution even minor some how means you are "afraid". Total nonsense.

Re: Coronavirus: How scared should we be?

#12

Post by cybwraith »

Its understandable since this is BBC, but it also ignores the dramatic financial impact being hospitalized for COVID19 can have on the average family in the US. It could be 0.0001% fatality regardless of demographic, and people in the US should still be very cautious if the hospitalization rate stays the same.

How many can afford to miss 3 weeks of work while recovering, let alone the bills afterwards or long-term health impacts. Will survivors end up needing expensive prescriptions or frequent doctor visits to maintain a normal quality of life post COVID19?

If the US really wants to 'restart' the economy and have things kicking, government-guaranteed health coverage (at minimum for COVID-related issues) should be priority #1.

Re: Coronavirus: How scared should we be?

#13

Post by giardini »

Good article! Answer: not very scared!

I'm surprised to hear people hyperventilating in fear while speaking of returning to the gym, school, or work. The press has a lot of fools whipped up into a frenzy with this virus.

Granted it is very contagious, but there are still very few cases relative to the population. And it kills so rarely!

Over a period of 4 weeks I have periodically and anecdotally polled all friends by asking the questions:

1. Have you or anyone you directly know caught Covid-19?

2. Have you, or anyone you know, heard indirectly (i.e., someone told you) of someone they knew who had Covid-19?

For me, the answer to 1 was "One person": an in-law who was in longterm care in a Hong Kong hospital and died of Covid-19.

For me, the answer to 2 was still "One person".

When I extended the questioning to all acquaintances the answer to 3 was "Six persons": the in-law and what a clerk described as "five men I know who are workers from South America." I asked him how the five dealt with the ailment and he said "They worked through it; they're young and strong and they need the jobs!"

If you told me to find a Covid-19 patient I would be hard pressed to do so w/o visiting a local hospital or funeral home. Even then I doubt they would have one on hand.

Re: Coronavirus: How scared should we be?

#14

Post by nate_meurer »

At this point it's clear that the most dangerous aspect of this disease is the risk of overwhelmed healthcare systems, which makes every one of us part of the "vulnerable population" regardless of our current physical conditions.

When (or if) our healthcare systems adjust to this threat enough to be reasonably robust in the face of outbreaks, and to no longer be centers of infection, then lockdowns and strict distancing measures can no longer be justified simply to save lives. Nobody genuinely disagrees with this, and the reason you know this is that nobody is advocating for lockdowns and strict distancing to save lives from other widespread infectious diseases. In other words, lockdowns and strict distancing would undoubtedly save millions of lives every year from the multitude of infectious diseases we already live with, but nobody serious has ever suggested we sacrifice our economy to fight them in this way.

Re: Coronavirus: How scared should we be?

#15

Post by pjc50 »

verdverm wrote: post #9
pjc50 wrote: post #8

No mention of the potential long term effects or long recovery time? Certain groups seem to have unexpectedly high death rates: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52752022 So the situation seems very much to depend on the risk of infection you face in day to day life. If that can be controlled, you're OK. If only we had a working tracing program.

It's essentially illegal or would be ineffective in the States. Can't gather the necessary detailed gps data (illegal) and enough people will not opt in that you can't catch all super spreaders, and individual actions (like crossing the street because you saw something) matrer

It would easily be perfectly legal in the UK, we've just done it badly.

(Not just about apps: plenty of countries have done a pencil and paper job, which is significantly better than nothing)

Re: Coronavirus: How scared should we be?

#16

Post by lma22 »

giardini wrote: post #13

Good article! Answer: not very scared! I'm surprised to hear people hyperventilating in fear while speaking of returning to the gym, school, or work. The press has a lot of fools whipped up into a frenzy with this virus. Granted it is very contagious, but there are still very few cases relative to the population. And it kills so rarely! Over a period of 4 weeks I have periodically and anecdotally polled all friends b…

>Granted it is very contagious, but there are still very few cases relative to the population.

There's entire nations on lock down to stop the spread. Without such an order, you'd have much more than "very few cases". You said it, COVID-19 is "very contagious".

>And it kills so rarely!

If it spreads, there's less medical equipment, space, and personnel to help fight. This will increase the death rate. You can look at NY and Italy as an example. Not to mention, people are not statistics. If you mom dies, it doesn't comfort you that the mortality rate is so low. You want to keep mom safe.

>When I extended the questioning to all acquaintances

What's n? Is it statistically relevant? Where do you live?

>If you told me to find a Covid-19 patient I would be hard pressed to do so w/o visiting a local hospital or funeral home. Even then I doubt they would have one on hand.

What is even the point of this statement? Illness can be a danger to society without _you_ knowing where to "find" a patient.

Re: Coronavirus: How scared should we be?

#17

Post by lma22 »

pmorici wrote: post #11

I really dislike the way the discussion around this has been framed. It seems to have centered around two polar extremes. On on end you have the idea that we should stay in "lockdown" until there is a cure or vaccine. On the other end you've got the "it's just the flu" crowd who doesn't want any public life restrictions while also nay saying zero cost things like masks that greatly reduce risk. Neither of those posit…

>. Where are the reasonable leaders that recognize that it isn't practical to to have a "lockdown" waiting for a vaccine that is going to take a year in the most optimistic case while at the same time recognizing that promoting small inexpensive behavior changes that keep this in check and reduce risk while that plays out is the way to prevent the need for more draconian measures.

They're all over. Most US states are starting to open via "stage 1". Stage 1 includes multiple precautions.

Re: Coronavirus: How scared should we be?

#18

Post by makomk »

nate_meurer wrote: post #14

At this point it's clear that the most dangerous aspect of this disease is the risk of overwhelmed healthcare systems, which makes every one of us part of the "vulnerable population" regardless of our current physical conditions. When (or if) our healthcare systems adjust to this threat enough to be reasonably robust in the face of outbreaks, and to no longer be centers of infection, then lockdowns and strict distanc…

It is indeed difficult to justify locking down indefinitely to save lives if you compare this to how we treat other infectious diseases, which is why the idea that it's monstrous to sacrifice even a single life in the name of saving the economy tends to go hand in hand with the belief that this must not be compared to any other infectious disease or cause of death.

Re: Coronavirus: How scared should we be?

#19

Post by ghthor »

pmorici wrote: post #11

I really dislike the way the discussion around this has been framed. It seems to have centered around two polar extremes. On on end you have the idea that we should stay in "lockdown" until there is a cure or vaccine. On the other end you've got the "it's just the flu" crowd who doesn't want any public life restrictions while also nay saying zero cost things like masks that greatly reduce risk. Neither of those posit…

Masks are not zero cost, they are emotionally and physically taxing. I not wearing a mask if I'm not sick.

Re: Coronavirus: How scared should we be?

#20

Post by DoreenMichele »

ghthor wrote: post #19
pmorici wrote: post #11

I really dislike the way the discussion around this has been framed. It seems to have centered around two polar extremes. On on end you have the idea that we should stay in "lockdown" until there is a cure or vaccine. On the other end you've got the "it's just the flu" crowd who doesn't want any public life restrictions while also nay saying zero cost things like masks that greatly reduce risk. Neither of those posit…

Masks are not zero cost, they are emotionally and physically taxing. I not wearing a mask if I'm not sick.

Masks are nasty and I hate them. Most people using them have no idea how to use them and seem to think wearing a mask is sort of like wearing your +2 Item Of Immunity from The Game Of Covid19 and you don't need to do anything differently. They just magically help, no matter how much stupid stuff you do.

My son said he saw someone wiping down a shopping cart with a wipe. It fell on the floor and and they picked it back up and kept wiping down the cart with it.

This is not unlike how many people relate to their masks.

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