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Suicides on the rise amid stay-at-home order, Bay Area medical professionals say

abc7news.com

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Re: Suicides on the rise amid stay-at-home order, Bay Area medical professionals say

#81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Businesses are losing customers not because the government imposed a lockdown, but because people think they can stop the pandemic and avoid death by staying away. Though there's probably not going to be much enthusiasm from the media towards exploring this idea, since it puts the economic damage etc squarely on their heads. Perhaps let's first explore the question whether they were right . Epidemiology 101 seems t…

I'd like to remind people that the pandemic does not significantly increase the risk of death for healthy people under 50. It makes little sense to force young people to stay at home and get fired when the healthy are at little risk of dying and such a lockdown will not completely eliminate a pandemic.

This is incorrect. The infection fatality rate for COVID-19 is about 0.2% (1 in 500, or 200 per 100,000) for ages 20-40. [1] The baseline death rate for ages 25-29 is about 100 per 100,000. [2] Getting COVID-19 puts you at roughly triple the chance of death from all other causes combined. It's about 5x the risk of unintentional injury, 12x the risk of suicide, 16x the rate of homicide, 20x the risk of cancer, and 200x the risk from HIV or diabetes.

[1] https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid#case-fatalit...

[2] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/LCWK1_2015.pdf p. 4

Re: Suicides on the rise amid stay-at-home order, Bay Area medical professionals say

#82

As the article doesn't provide any of the actual numbers of these events, Walnut Creek has 35 confirmed coronavirus cases. The county has 1155 cases and 33 deaths. Suicides is a rare cause of death, usually around .01%. Unless the actual totals are also mentioned, I'm always skeptical of articles attributing some huge change in the rates to some phenomenon. If my really terrible math is correct, this could he around…

Suicide is not such a rare cause of death. In the U.S., suicide is the second most common form of death among young people, after accidents: > According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) WISQARS Leading Causes of Death Reports, in 2017: > Suicide was the tenth leading cause of death overall in the United States, claiming the lives of over 47,000 people. > Suicide was the second leading cause of…

>Suicide is not such a rare cause of death. In the U.S., suicide is the second most common form of death among young people, after accidents

Death itself is rare for young people.

Nothing you've said changes that suicide accounts for about .01% of deaths. It gets discussed far more than other causes as it's preventable, but it's still rare enough that statistics can be misleading.

Re: Suicides on the rise amid stay-at-home order, Bay Area medical professionals say

#83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If only many, many thousands of people die due to economic issues, that's still a huge win over what the virus would have done if left to run through the country at full speed. Economic problems would've happened anyway. Global supply chains were already in disarray even before March, as China essentially lost two months of manufacturing output, container ships stopped sailing, and the whole chain was pushed into osc…

I immediately know two things about you: 1. You don’t live alone. 2. You have a job. I think we’re all a little short on empathy these days.

Awfully quick to judge eh? I agree with everything the parent comment said, and I:

1. Live alone

2. Have not worked for nearly a year now. Technically I’m on leave due to extreme burnout, so I’m even more hosed (can’t collect unemployment).

3. (see below) Have been dealing with a wicked combo of depression/anxiety/ADD/OCD for 20+ years now, but the last 3 or so have been worse. I’ve been extremely isolated for the last year—I’ve spent countless days in bed, not eating my first meal until 11pm. I was just starting to improve in February, trying to get back on my feet and out into the world. My lifelines were the climbing gym (social+exercise time) and libraries/coffee shops. Luckily I (finally) got into a therapist in January, which is still available and co-pay free.

Despite all this, I think the lockdowns were a necessary emergency response to the crisis, with one major caveat—we did (and are doing) too little, too late, and too incompetently. It was glaringly obvious back in February that we needed to start taking measured action to mitigate the spread of the virus (as other countries—Taiwan, NZ, SK, etc did). Our response was an abject failure of reason and leadership, and I hope no one ever forgets that.

So although I’m pretty thoroughly fucked, I’m adapting and surviving. In many ways, it’s comforting and galvanizing to have a common cause to rally around. My attitude is that this crisis could be a catalyst for profound personal and societal growth.

And therein lies the source of some genuine hatred that is beginning to bubble up towards people that aggressively flaunt even the most basic courtesies and precautions, like wearing any form of nose/mouth covering whatsoever when inside a building. Just yesterday I saw a couple (in their 60s) stiff arm the door greeter at WF who was handing out free mask. It was nonstop people brusquely walking headlong into me. This says nothing about the unhelpful binary thinking around open vs. closed, economy vs. health, normal life vs. totalitarianism. Society’s tool of choice for preventing and solving unfolding catastrophes seems to be to pretend they don’t exist and give up, to reflexively fracture ourselves rather than come together to solve a challenge. And I find that to be the most profoundly depressing thing of all.

Re: Suicides on the rise amid stay-at-home order, Bay Area medical professionals say

#84
This doesn't fit with what would be expected.

So we need numbers.

The suicides are not expected during lockdown/isolation. It should reduce suicides.

They are expected to be economic when people start realising they have lost their jobs and their business have failed and their lives ruined with no way out.

This would be more expected at reopen and everyone else is rebuilding, life is very comparative.

And why the hell are they asking doctors and not coroners?

Re: Suicides on the rise amid stay-at-home order, Bay Area medical professionals say

#85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Businesses are losing customers not because the government imposed a lockdown, but because people think they can stop the pandemic and avoid death by staying away. Though there's probably not going to be much enthusiasm from the media towards exploring this idea, since it puts the economic damage etc squarely on their heads. Perhaps let's first explore the question whether they were right . Epidemiology 101 seems t…

I'd like to remind people that the pandemic does not significantly increase the risk of death for healthy people under 50. It makes little sense to force young people to stay at home and get fired when the healthy are at little risk of dying and such a lockdown will not completely eliminate a pandemic.

As if there are no households with members above and below 50?

Keeping all the elderly together in shared living spaces didn't work to their advantage by the way.

Re: Suicides on the rise amid stay-at-home order, Bay Area medical professionals say

#86
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arguably, we know even less about by how much exactly "economic uncertainty, isolation, or lack of access to support" increases suicide rates than we know about how deadly the virus is.

I don't know about uncertainty per se or on isolation but I know at least with respect to economic downturns, recessions, and slumps and all the relation has been quantified to some extent by economists or social scientists from what I understand. Not sure how much the increase goes but it's considered a measurable thing apparently and has enough history to sketch out some kind of correlation from what I understand.…

"Quantified to some extent," yes, but not as rigorously as the effects of SARS-Cov-2. Basic epidemiological models tell us that we at least 60% or so of the population to be immune in order to reach herd immunity. Based on an infection fatality rate of 0.5% and a US population of about 328M, you multiply that out to get an order of magnitude estimate of ~1M dead, whereas during the Great Depression (probably our closest comparison point to what's going on now), as well as the recessions of 1921 and 1938, life expectancy actually increased; the only cause of death that increased was suicide [0].

There are things we don't know about this virus, such as what exactly the residual effects are on survivors, whether and for how long infection can provide immunity, what the role of vitamin D is, and many other things, but those uncertainties largely don't matter to epidemiological models at this point. We can simply run best and worst case type scenarios to get an idea what we're dealing with if we're thinking solely about the death rate. And, even if we underestimate the death rate, if there are severe and long-lasting aftereffects, that only compounds the need to do something to stop the virus.

IMO, the "knowns" surrounding economic correlations with decreased life expectancy are far, far more unknown than those surrounding a very contagious virus that kills people.

And, as I have said before, to much controversy, if a science-based, public health response to a public health crisis cripples the economy, that's a sign that our economic system is broken, not that we're overreacting to save lives, just to doom people to economic misery.

---

[0]: https://www.pnas.org/content/106/41/17290

Re: Suicides on the rise amid stay-at-home order, Bay Area medical professionals say

#87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd like to remind people that the pandemic does not significantly increase the risk of death for healthy people under 50. It makes little sense to force young people to stay at home and get fired when the healthy are at little risk of dying and such a lockdown will not completely eliminate a pandemic.

This is incorrect. The infection fatality rate for COVID-19 is about 0.2% (1 in 500, or 200 per 100,000) for ages 20-40. [1] The baseline death rate for ages 25-29 is about 100 per 100,000. [2] Getting COVID-19 puts you at roughly triple the chance of death from all other causes combined . It's about 5x the risk of unintentional injury, 12x the risk of suicide, 16x the rate of homicide, 20x the risk of cancer, and 20…

Your comment says "The infection fatality rate for COVID-19 is about 0.2%" but you reference "Case fatality rate of COVID-19 by age" as the source.

The infection fatality rate and the case fatality rate are two very, very different concepts.

"The IFR differs from the CFR in that it aims to estimate the fatality rate in all those with infection: the detected disease (cases) and those with an undetected disease (asymptomatic and not tested group)... The IFR will always be lower than the CFR..." [1]

Spanish government's estimates of COVID-19's IFR are[2]:

For the age group under 50, the estimated IFR is about 0.003%

For the age group 50 - 69 yo, it's 0.04%

And for those over 70, it's 4.1%

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate#Terminology

[2] https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/a... Look for the table on page 15

Re: Suicides on the rise amid stay-at-home order, Bay Area medical professionals say

#88
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's going to be impossible to track, but surely the financial ruin the governments have compelled people to endure is going to kill many, many thousands of people. It's also not politically advantageous to even consider it, let alone talk about it. In a year, when nobody cares anymore, and people are killing themselves, it will never come back to haunt the policy makers that provoked it all.

If only many, many thousands of people die due to economic issues, that's still a huge win over what the virus would have done if left to run through the country at full speed. Economic problems would've happened anyway. Global supply chains were already in disarray even before March, as China essentially lost two months of manufacturing output, container ships stopped sailing, and the whole chain was pushed into osc…

"The only way the government could've saved restaurants, nail salons, et al. from suffering similar fate would be by suppressing all information about the virus and going to full denial mode. Otherwise, the customer base would've mostly evaporated"

To me it seems this claim contradicts what actually happens in places that didn't impose lockdown or lifted lockdown earlier.

To give one example, here's a video from Sweden's bars and restaurants: https://www.bbc.com/news/av/newsbeat-52618788/coronavirus-ho...

A pedestrian street in Stockholm on Apr. 1: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2020/04/01/TELE...

A market in Malmo during the pandemic Apr. 24: https://media.voltron.voanews.com/Drupal/01live-166/styles/s...

5000 gather to see a concert in Tel Aviv: https://static.timesofisrael.com/www/uploads/2020/05/coronak... (https://www.timesofisrael.com/thousands-pack-tel-aviv-concer...)

Re: Suicides on the rise amid stay-at-home order, Bay Area medical professionals say

#89
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If only many, many thousands of people die due to economic issues, that's still a huge win over what the virus would have done if left to run through the country at full speed. Economic problems would've happened anyway. Global supply chains were already in disarray even before March, as China essentially lost two months of manufacturing output, container ships stopped sailing, and the whole chain was pushed into osc…

"The only way the government could've saved restaurants, nail salons, et al. from suffering similar fate would be by suppressing all information about the virus and going to full denial mode. Otherwise, the customer base would've mostly evaporated" To me it seems this claim contradicts what actually happens in places that didn't impose lockdown or lifted lockdown earlier. To give one example, here's a video from Swed…

...those 5000 were today, _after_ they reached the milestone of only 18 new daily cases thanks to lock-down along other measures. The average health of swedish people is miles ahead of americans, less overweight, less diabetes, less opiod addiction, less hard drugs (cocaine, meth, etc), more average life expectancy, so yeah I'm not sure you are comparing apples-to-apples here. Also the population density in NY is 26400 vs 4800 in sweden, so you could say NY is a "special case" but when you start analyzing each situation a lot of more "special cases" not seen in sweden start to appear in the US.

Re: Suicides on the rise amid stay-at-home order, Bay Area medical professionals say

#90
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The only way the government could've saved restaurants, nail salons, et al. from suffering similar fate would be by suppressing all information about the virus and going to full denial mode. Otherwise, the customer base would've mostly evaporated" To me it seems this claim contradicts what actually happens in places that didn't impose lockdown or lifted lockdown earlier. To give one example, here's a video from Swed…

...those 5000 were today, _after_ they reached the milestone of only 18 new daily cases thanks to lock-down along other measures. The average health of swedish people is miles ahead of americans, less overweight, less diabetes, less opiod addiction, less hard drugs (cocaine, meth, etc), more average life expectancy, so yeah I'm not sure you are comparing apples-to-apples here. Also the population density in NY is 264…

"I'm not sure you are comparing apples-to-apples here."

You are right. I don't think anyone knows exactly what makes certain places suffer more than others from the virus.

I wasn't trying to compare, though. My point is people still go to restaurants, nail salons, et al. during the pandemic. So the claim about evaporating custom base doesn't seem to be grounded in reality.

Remember that video with Italian majors loosing their cool? One of them was mad at people breaking the lockdown rules to get a haircut. https://youtu.be/Uo2clI631uA?t=37

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