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Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

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Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#41

Post by kube-system »

gregkerzhner wrote: post #30
kube-system wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Networking things makes sense when remote interaction is useful. There is very little you can do with a toaster, microwave, or coffee machine while you are not physically present. You can't send toast, coffee, or leftovers over a network. The 'internet of things' isn't useful in and of itself. There has to first be a practical use-case that justifies it. I haven't had to worry about the coffee pot being on for decade…

Playing devil's advocate, but I can see how people would appreciate a network connected coffee maker. My wife likes to stay in bed and scroll through her newsfeeds in the morning. If she could start the coffee maker from her phone, it would probably get her out of bed a lot faster.

Some people like to use their Cuisinart Grind & Brew instead of an alarm clock. The grinder will wake you up at the programmed time, and if you get up, you are rewarded with freshly ground coffee.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#42

Post by karatestomp »

gregkerzhner wrote: post #30
kube-system wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Networking things makes sense when remote interaction is useful. There is very little you can do with a toaster, microwave, or coffee machine while you are not physically present. You can't send toast, coffee, or leftovers over a network. The 'internet of things' isn't useful in and of itself. There has to first be a practical use-case that justifies it. I haven't had to worry about the coffee pot being on for decade…

Playing devil's advocate, but I can see how people would appreciate a network connected coffee maker. My wife likes to stay in bed and scroll through her newsfeeds in the morning. If she could start the coffee maker from her phone, it would probably get her out of bed a lot faster.

You can get a pretty dumb coffee maker that has a delayed brew setting. You'd have to put the grounds and water in anyway, so the extra effort is pressing a couple buttons on the machine right after you do that, rather than a couple buttons on your phone in the morning.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#43

Post by eth0up »

Aperocky wrote: post #22
kube-system wrote: post #4

> Because tomorrow, every piece of consumer electronics, even your lowly coffee machine or microwave or toaster, is going to have a 5G chip. That’s what the internet of things is about. If the Chinese can listen to you through your smartphone, they can listen to you through your toaster. Once we declare that 5G is going to allow China to listen to our communication, we will also have to ban all household electronics…

The article just want you to believe that 'The Chinese' would want to put a microphone with 5G into your toaster. So that they could listen to YOU through the said toaster, because whatever shit you said near the toaster is obviously very important to the Chinese. Is there a more moronic idea? If someone were to listen to you, wouldn't it be easier to say... do it through the phone?

You could consider the subject through the perspective of, say, David Petraeus:

https://www.wired.com/2012/03/petraeus-tv-remote/

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#44

Post by downerending »

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #5

I'm trying to decide where the line between sound economic advice and scaremongering sits. I think it may be around "You’re going to start having food riots soon enough." At least I hope that's scaremongering. Given that everyone is doing their best to return to normal, I feel like running out of unemployment may not be as big of an issue as stated.

Having been through the experience of "large" financial loss (though not to the point of going hungry), I can attest that it changes the way you think about the world, your role in society, who you trust, etc. I wouldn't necessarily discount the idea of dramatic change of behavior if a lot of people get desperate enough.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#46

Post by TwelveNights »

papeda wrote: post #32
djsumdog wrote: post #11

Predicting the future is inherently stupid. Trying to show what will happen in our complex world using models is the stuff of Science Fiction. Going back to the article and economics, if you follow David Graber (Debt The First 5,000 Years and Bullshit Jobs), he talks in his books about how every great civilization needs to have debt resets. Going back to the Babylonians, the Sumerians, and tons of others, there were…

> Israel had the year of Jubilee, where every 50 years debts would be forgiven How would this work? Wouldn't people just not enter into contracts near that 50 year mark? Is it randomized?

If everyone knew that debt resets were to happen, the contracts in the 49th year would likely be only for small things.

That probably also means that for larger purchases, more cash up-front is required the closer it is to the Jubilee year.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#47

Post by phkahler »

sp332 wrote: post #36
kube-system wrote: post #4

> Because tomorrow, every piece of consumer electronics, even your lowly coffee machine or microwave or toaster, is going to have a 5G chip. That’s what the internet of things is about. If the Chinese can listen to you through your smartphone, they can listen to you through your toaster. Once we declare that 5G is going to allow China to listen to our communication, we will also have to ban all household electronics…

The thing with wifi is that you increasingly need a password to join. If a device comes with its own 4G/5G internet connection, it doesn't need your permission to phone home anymore.

Carriers still need to let a device on their network to get paid.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#48

Post by magicsmoke »

stepbeek wrote: post #13
sremani wrote: post #8

Think of all predictions as set of possible outcomes. Yes, there is a possible decade long depression outcome. Based on my reading its W recovery staggered growth, with US pulling back all its supply chains to North America and Export-Oriented economies holding the bag. These economic and global dislocations resulting in events we have not seen Post-WW2. In spite of all these, US/North America is where you would rath…

> In spite of all these, US/North America is where you would rather be than say, Europe, Africa or even Asia. Why?

Lower population density and land that's only been tapped for a few centuries instead of millennia. When the famines and natural disasters start, it's going to hit the old world a lot harder than the new.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#49

Post by sp332 »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #31
tonyedgecombe wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Student loan debt is interesting because it could swing an election. All it needs is a candidate offering to write it off and a large enough portion of the population that stands to gain. I'll be surprised if it doesn't happen in the next decade or two.

I doubt it. Less than 15% of adults have student loan debt, and only a small portion of those are past due. Plus young people don’t vote. The only thing that might happen, is what has happened which is to delay payments or maybe interest, but politically, student loan borrowers are not a sympathetic group to other voters. https://www.investopedia.com/student-loan-debt-2019-statisti...

Presidential elections have been pretty close lately. A candidate might increase their odds of winning substantially by swinging a fraction of a percent of actual voters.

Re: Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression

#50

Post by creaghpatr »

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #17
djsumdog wrote: post #11

Predicting the future is inherently stupid. Trying to show what will happen in our complex world using models is the stuff of Science Fiction. Going back to the article and economics, if you follow David Graber (Debt The First 5,000 Years and Bullshit Jobs), he talks in his books about how every great civilization needs to have debt resets. Going back to the Babylonians, the Sumerians, and tons of others, there were…

Student loan debt is interesting because it could swing an election. All it needs is a candidate offering to write it off and a large enough portion of the population that stands to gain. I'll be surprised if it doesn't happen in the next decade or two.

And vice versa.
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