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Jack Dorsey is giving Andrew Yang $5M to build the case for a basic income

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Re: Jack Dorsey is giving Andrew Yang $5M to build the case for a basic income

#451

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> While I think UBI is one of the better solutions to the poverty problem in the US, I think almost any solution to poverty will fall prey to inflation if we don't address income inequality. Please define the "poverty problem" in the US. How is an increase in the money supply related to income inequality?

> How is an increase in the money supply related to income inequality? Go read about whose asses were saved with printed the money during the 2008 financial crisis. Or the 7 trillion bailout fund for corporations that just passed.

Corporate bailouts are bullshit, I agree. But even without bailouts there would still be massive inequality (which I think is fine).

Cut spending and abolish the Fed.

Re: Jack Dorsey is giving Andrew Yang $5M to build the case for a basic income

#452

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the other thing is, without proper price controls (rent, basic food stuffs, transportation etc) business will look at it as a chance to jack up prices because "free money" the other aspect is, no amount of ubi is going to cover huge medical costs that the current u.s system incurs, as well as higher education for those thst really do want to improve themselves and contribute so (i think) ubi isnt a bad idea, but it n…

> without proper price controls US government injected about 3 trillion worth of liquidity into the country since the start of the coronavirus, similar to how UBI of $1000/month to every single adult would cost. And did you see any price rise?

Right now consumer spending is way down because people can't or won't leave the house, and millions of people are unemployed. Injecting 3 trillion into the economy in normal circumstances would of course have a different effect.

Re: Jack Dorsey is giving Andrew Yang $5M to build the case for a basic income

#453

I could see UBI as an alternative to federal government spend. E.g. every time I hear about the U.S. sending billions to the middle east, I wonder how much more effectively it could be spent in the hands of thousands upon thousands of americans. It’s almost like implementing something closer to direct democracy instead of representative republic democracy in regards to spending...

Yeah, I think UBI should/would/could actually be very popular from a small government perspective as well. What if a republican ran on the platform that “if elected, I will make it a law that 10% of all federal revenue must be directly distributed equally to all citizens. Then is grows 5% a year until it hits 80% in 2036!”?

Because then the government inevitably either 1) runs out of money, 2) cuts spending drastically, or 3) drastically increases taxes on the wealthy to pay for everything.

We all know that 1 and 2 (probably) aren't going to happen. And I don't know many republicans that want the wealthy's money redistributed equally amongst all Americans.

Re: Jack Dorsey is giving Andrew Yang $5M to build the case for a basic income

#454
post #415

UBI can have a place if the payout is controlled by the federal reserve as a means to enact inflation. Taking it from other people's earnings and spending it through a committee of politicians sounds pretty dystopian to me though.

> Taking it from other people's earnings and spending it through a committee of politicians sounds pretty dystopian to me though.

That sounds exactly like how social services work today, with the extra bonus of high administration costs.

At least with cash, the government can't decide for you what to spend it on. In effect you end up relying on businesses to spring up to provide the things you want (which may be different than what I want). This is either a feature or a drawback depending on who you talk to.

Re: Jack Dorsey is giving Andrew Yang $5M to build the case for a basic income

#455
post #160

Years ago, proponents of UBI claimed that it was a replacement for all other forms of social welfare. Now it appears by most proposals to be yet another means-tested add-on. What happened?

I think there has been growing momentum behind the idea that some needs aren't met best by a market approach. One of the ideas behind UBI is that people can figure out what they need, and just spend the money. But that doesn't really solve the needs that may not be optimal for a 100% market approach - probably the big two being health and education.

The market approach tends to not work when the participants are not part of the market.

Re: Jack Dorsey is giving Andrew Yang $5M to build the case for a basic income

#456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the other thing is, without proper price controls (rent, basic food stuffs, transportation etc) business will look at it as a chance to jack up prices because "free money" the other aspect is, no amount of ubi is going to cover huge medical costs that the current u.s system incurs, as well as higher education for those thst really do want to improve themselves and contribute so (i think) ubi isnt a bad idea, but it n…

> without proper price controls US government injected about 3 trillion worth of liquidity into the country since the start of the coronavirus, similar to how UBI of $1000/month to every single adult would cost. And did you see any price rise?

Corporations already got most of the 3 trillion!

Re: Jack Dorsey is giving Andrew Yang $5M to build the case for a basic income

#457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're overestimating how much would be paid out. Taxes can go up on the employed by roughly what they receive in UBI, unemployed get UBI instead of unemployment benefits. It all balances out.

This is not a VAT anymore. Why do UBI specialists sidestepped how this gets funded? What is there to hide?

I don't think there is a widespread agreement amongst proponents on how things are to be funded. Some want it to be revenue natural, others a wealth tax, others VAT, others via printing money, others a mix.

I'm not sure UBI is the right way to go. But if we are to do it, my own current thinking that you start by trying to keep it neutral in the tax code (so most families get increased taxes that claw back the majority of the UBI value)

But then we need need to account for additional funds needed beyond that:

- Those currently earning less than would be clawed back (net-recipients of UBI) - Those who we would expect to become net-recipients, that would also cut back on their current earnings.

The latter group, I'd expect to be smaller than some suspect, but still big enough that it needs to taken into account.

So how much extra are we talking about?

Back of the envelope math starting from:

https://dqydj.com/average-median-top-household-income-percen...

127,679,100 households in the US, in 2018

If we take the approach that this acts as an income floor (the clawbacks per above), and we set that floor at $40k.

We can see that 33% make less than that from the data. For laziness sake, I'll assume a linear transition from 0% to 33%. That would imply $20k/year at 16%, which is roughly what the data shows. So we can assume an average of 20k UBI for 33% of households as the net benefit.

127,679,100 * $20000 * 0.33 = $843B

Then we need to take into account those that stop earning. So let's round it up to a trillion. Note household income already take into account existing transfers like social security and unemployment benefits so we can't subtract those out as savings.

The US is wealthy enough to raise taxes by a trillion/year. It is something like 5% GDP. But that is a massive increase. It doesn't come for free with "neutral" taxation. On the other hand, we could have a lower floor, but then I don't think we actually get the benefits.

Re: Jack Dorsey is giving Andrew Yang $5M to build the case for a basic income

#458
post #442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you sure were are not heading towards The Expanse ;P Here's one counter argument for UBI. Who will do all the boring work needed for building a dam / apartment ? If we are honest about it, most of this boring, physically harmful and repetitive infrastructure work is only done by the working class that chooses to do it because the alternative is begging. It's because of the threat of extreme poverty and unemployme…

Perhaps it's time that this kind of work is recognised as being more valuable than it is today, precisely because not many people want to do it.

Because people will be paid well to do it, they might as well put more effort into it. You get what you pay for in that way!

Re: Jack Dorsey is giving Andrew Yang $5M to build the case for a basic income

#459
post #89

Trickle up, baby. Man I love Andrew Yang and what his mission is with Humanity Forward. Good move, Jack.

Same here but I really wish he wouldn't kowtow every time some wackjob group is screaming at him. He took a very moderate and reasonable stance on a lot of contentious topics during his campaign then rolled them back within a day of getting lit up by twitter trolls. I think he lost a large section of centrist voters by appearing spineless. He took the best policies from the left and right, but also seemed obligated t…

"every time some wackjob group is screaming at him"

"He took a very moderate and reasonable stance "

No, you don't get to label anyone who disagrees with a risky, existential upheaval as a 'whackjob'.

UBI is a fairly extreme ideology, partly because of the social welfare application, but mostly because of the cost - which its proponents tend to ignore.

We can argue a little bit over what 'free money' means for people, but the case falls flat when someone talks about a program that costs $350 Billion a month, or about 3 Trillion a year. FYI US economy is about 20 Trillion.

UBI is not a discussion about 'free money' or 'welfare' or 'means testing'.

UBI is a discussion about the existential level of wealth transfer or debt creation that comes from the most expensive program ever conceived by any government in the history of civilization.

The UBI discussion really needs to start with 'where do we get $350B a month'?

Because all the nice talking points are otherwise academic.

Yang reminds me a little bit of Marx - really amazing insight and thoughtful understanding of problems ... but solutions that miss the point entirely.

Re: Jack Dorsey is giving Andrew Yang $5M to build the case for a basic income

#460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the earnings part comes before the tax part, which is the proper order of operations. In order to produce earnings, our system dictates that you do something economically useful. That's not a perfect system, but it has produced the modern economy and for all its flaws, no economy in history has produced as much wealth as exists today. I am highly skeptical of UBI. The U.S. is the last place that should try it…

I would LOVE to see more US experiments with UBI. The economics have already been tested. The federal government has these enormous funded installations where the people living there don't have to worry about the economy at all . These gov-funded individuals then go and spend their largesse in the local economy, in many cases propping them up all by themselves. This happens on a massive scale, right here, right now.…

Bullshit jobs? Like which ones exactly? Who determines which ones are bullshit and which ones are not? We don't just create jobs for nothing. Companies that hire excess employees tend to go out of business or shed workers during a downturn like we're experiencing now.

In the meantime, no, we had a thriving restaurant and travel industry 2 months ago but the fact those people have been laid off or furloughed doesn't mean their jobs were bullshit.

It's never been tried at a macro scale for an extended period of time. You are being recklessly ignorant of the very real economic risks. Spending trillions more on top of the trillions in deficits we already have, but making those deficits permanent and ongoing with no ability to pay down will cause rapid inflation that could very easily evolve to hyper inflation like happened in the Weimar Republic in Germany in the 1920s and like has happened more recently in Venezuela and Zimbabwe. We may get there without UBI based on current trajectories, but UBI will just usher it in all the more quickly.

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