91–100 of 137 posts
Time to start buying. Bet Buffet is taking a look at all those wonderful Japanese companies who moats are wide, have good fundamentals, and produce reasonable free-cash flow. Hope his "itchy trigger finger" found a few targets. My IRA could use a boost after the last few years.
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Only an economist can consider a theory like that for more than a few seconds and not laugh hysterically. As Tom Woods has said, following this logic, the best thing we could do for our economy is build a huge armada of amazing battle ships, have Japan do likewise, then float them to the middle of the pacific and, after evacuating them (surely, the loss of human life is not a necessary component in this economic mode…
Empiricism is not on your side. The richest country in the world spends more than its fair share on 'a huge armada of amazing battle ships', actually, as much as everyone else on the planet put together, and also actively seeks out remote spots of the planet to blow stuff up in. Rinse, repeat, very rich.
According to the IMF and CIA World Factbook, Qatar has the highest GDP (PPP) per capita. According to the World Bank, it's Luxembourg: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_...
It seems like everybody in this thread is saying "No duh, invest in Japan right now!" The assumption is that the market will turn around, and anybody who buys into Japanese companies stands to make a lot of money. If this is the case, then why are the prices going down at all? Are other investors really that ignorant?
Exactly. People who make fortunes off these markets are selling. Either they're wrong or posters here are. Guess which option is more likely. I think the LessWrong post Markets are Anti-Inductive explains it well: http://lesswrong.com/lw/yv/markets_are_antiinductive/
Only half of them are selling; you can't sell unless you can find someone who'll buy at the price you want ;)
It seems like everybody in this thread is saying "No duh, invest in Japan right now!" The assumption is that the market will turn around, and anybody who buys into Japanese companies stands to make a lot of money. If this is the case, then why are the prices going down at all? Are other investors really that ignorant?
It seems like everybody in this thread is saying "No duh, invest in Japan right now!" The assumption is that the market will turn around, and anybody who buys into Japanese companies stands to make a lot of money. If this is the case, then why are the prices going down at all? Are other investors really that ignorant?
Learn the lesson of what happened to BP after they bottomed out. http://www.google.com//finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1...
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Empiricism is not on your side. The richest country in the world spends more than its fair share on 'a huge armada of amazing battle ships', actually, as much as everyone else on the planet put together, and also actively seeks out remote spots of the planet to blow stuff up in. Rinse, repeat, very rich.
When you talk about the richest country in the world, are you referring to Qatar or Luxembourg? According to the IMF and CIA World Factbook, Qatar has the highest GDP (PPP) per capita. According to the World Bank, it's Luxembourg: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_...
Care to dig up those rates/expenditures per capita?
It seems like everybody in this thread is saying "No duh, invest in Japan right now!" The assumption is that the market will turn around, and anybody who buys into Japanese companies stands to make a lot of money. If this is the case, then why are the prices going down at all? Are other investors really that ignorant?
It depends on how bad the news really is, e.g. how damaged Japan's infrastructure actually is, as a whole. You need to judge this with facts, not on what other investors do, efficient market hypothesis notwithstanding.
FWIW, I don't know enough of the facts to make a decision. I do have a feeling that the Japanese people will rebound vigorously, as they did after WWII.
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Currency? Do you have a source on revised infrastructure damage figures, because I've only seen $100-150 billion estimates by some insurance companies.
Christchurch is $12b, and there have been whole cities leveled in japan, a whole prefecture is majorly affected if not downright destroyed. $150b seems very low.
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Person A has lost 50% of assets in Japanese stock, and cannot afford to drop to 30%. Person B has money they're interested in investing long-term, and is not afraid to take a 40% hit up-front for the possibility of a long-term 20% gain. So there we have perfect information about the stocks' long-term performance, but two situations in which both buying and selling the same stock is wise, or at least understandable.
In particular, person A may very well have margin requirements to meet, which means that they literally cannot not sell right now.
It seems like everybody in this thread is saying "No duh, invest in Japan right now!" The assumption is that the market will turn around, and anybody who buys into Japanese companies stands to make a lot of money. If this is the case, then why are the prices going down at all? Are other investors really that ignorant?
You're correct in pointing out that we can only be buying if someone is willing to sell to us. However, one big factor is your time horizon. For average investors like ourselves, if you're investing for the long term / retirement, you generally know that it will recover, whether it's over 1 year, 2 years, or longer. It may go down further, but will it be in the same state 30 years from now? Probably not, so it's rela…
Let's put this in perspective. The Nikkei is down 80% over the past 21 years. At an optimistic rate of increase of 6% from now, it will be another 25+ years before it hits 38957 again. All up, over 45 years.
Have a look at Shiller's house price graph. From 1890 to 1955 there was zero real increase - and large falls in the meantime. This is 65 years. Again long term is very long term. Same in Australia by the way. The USA and Australia of the most prosperous and successful economies in the C20. Others did far worse.
This "in the long run all will be well" argument just doesn't hold water. Not if you have a human life span.
See for more on this "The Big Investment Lie: What Your Financial Advisor Doesn't Want You to Know" by Michael Edesess. Everything a financial planner tells you may be a self-serving lie.