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California affordable housing is more expensive than luxury housing

latimes.com

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Re: California affordable housing is more expensive than luxury housing

#171
post #5

> Pearl was cut from 18 apartments to 10 and its approval required an underground garage with 53 parking spots. How did it ever get here? Requiring more than 2 parking spots per apartment is insane.... especially for "affordable housing".

> How did it ever get here? Requiring more than 2 parking spots per apartment is insane.... especially for "affordable housing". People who live near new property developments don't want to end up with their streets completely full of parked cars from residents and guests of the new building. I can't say it's unreasonable for the existing residents to feel that way. I lived in a neighborhood where that happened, and…

The government shouldn't be in the business of providing free car storage for residents, anyway. Free street parking is the problem here, not the completely inevitable demand for that underpriced service.

Re: California affordable housing is more expensive than luxury housing

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now, I'll grant it's only very specific corridors, but the densest parts of California do have passable mass transit. The majority of Californians don't have access to this, but the most crowded parts do.

Mass transit exists but it's really bad -- e.g. Muni and BART and Caltrain in the San Francisco area. Constant delays, mechanical failures, and overcrowding. Now that Coronavirus and social distancing are the new normal, I expect some of those transit systems to lose funding and perhaps even shut down. I'm a huge fan of public transit and I'd love to see good transit systems exist in California, but I have no hope th…

BART! I used it once just to see how it went. A cross between a cattle car and a shipping container. Unbearably noisy and dirty. Reminded me of the public transit in Gotham when Bruce Wayne returned.

Re: California affordable housing is more expensive than luxury housing

#173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what percent of "low-income people" own motorcycles? what would the occupants of 10 apartments have to do such that a small city would no longer be said to be able to have "quiet nights" that could not be enforced against by any method other than excluding the apartments completely?

ooh, I'm gonna go with "a lot". Because motorcycles are a lot cheaper to buy, own, and maintain that cars. And a lot of them don't even require licenses in the US (49cc and smaller, if I'm not mistaken).

motorcycle owners are wealthier on average (this is really easy to google). I don't see really any motorcycles or scooters at all in poor neighborhoods. They generally have beater cars or no vehicle at all.

Re: California affordable housing is more expensive than luxury housing

#174
US $414,000 per apartment was the original bid? Something has gone terribly wrong with your civilization.

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I think about the Isla Maciel slums where I used to volunteer. They're on the outskirts of Buenos Aires, and although I'm not familiar with any official statistics, I think the average daily income is under a dollar per person per day, with significant variation above and below that level. Some of the roads are dirt while others are paved, and the buildings are mostly somewhat ramshackle houses made of hollow brick with corrugated iron roofs. It's sort of similar to some of the neighborhoods I lived in as a kid in the US before I moved into a trailer park.

Despite this astonishing level of income, there is no homelessness (though there is elsewhere in Buenos Aires), and almost nobody rents. This is because people build their own houses. The most common material is hollow ceramic brick, the kind that's a latticework of thin red-clay walls; you have to scavenge or buy these https://articulo.mercadolibre.com.ar/MLA-821163523-ladrillo-... at a cost of about AR$6000 (US$50) per pallet of 144 bricks, which works out to about 35¢ per brick. The poorest people instead build with wood, like people in the US. (We haven't had an earthquake here during human habitation.)

If you do the figures, you can see that a generous 7 m × 3 m wall contains about US$130 worth of bricks, plus a smaller and cheaper amount of sand and cement. You can build a 49 m² house from four of these walls (US$520) plus 49 m² of corrugated steel, which if you have to buy it https://articulo.mercadolibre.com.ar/MLA-799438818-chapa-aca... is about AR$24000 (US$200). Putting these parts together into an actual building envelope typically takes a semi-skilled laborer a week or two, and most people either do it themselves or have their sons, boyfriends, or husbands do it, since they don't have any money to hire someone else. Adding a toilet, a sink, a bidet (we are not barbarians, after all), some PVC pipes for water and sewer, and a kind of shitty electrical installation (hopefully with at least a circuit breaker) might bring the total out-of-pocket cost close to US$1000.

You might note that US$1000 is significantly less than US$414000.

Now, Isla Maciel is a dangerous place. Everyone has lost family members either to gang violence or to police violence. I wouldn't advise visiting without knowing anybody there any more than I'd advise trying to visit the US without a visa; people there laugh about the stories of the tourists who mistakenly wandered into their neighborhood and got robbed. I'm not holding it up as an ideal of human civilization. But I'd much rather have a house in Isla Maciel than a park bench in Los Angeles or a rat-infested motel room in Solana Beach.

And I don't think the violence there is a result of a lack of enforcement of building codes, as someone will no doubt attempt to argue in response to this comment. Rather, both the insecurity and the freedom to build your own house result from the lawlessness of the neighborhood, which in turn proceeds from a general feeling that the law establishes oppression rather than justice — a proposition with ample empirical support within the confines of Isla Maciel, in my view, as well as other similar slums in Buenos Aires. This in turn undermines officially recognized systems of land tenure, with the consequence that residents of Isla Maciel can often claim land by building on it, if that doesn't piss off the neighbors too badly.

— ⁂ —

How much would building such a house in the US cost, if it were somehow allowed? Let's suppose the cost of labor is some US$30 per hour (https://www.ziprecruiter.com/Salaries/How-Much-Does-a-Constr... gives an average of US$16/hour with a range of US$9–23, but this doesn't include overhead, worker's comp, unemployment insurance, etc.) which works out to US$2400 for two person-weeks. So maybe the total cost is US$3400, including materials and labor. So the cost of labor isn't the problem. Something has gone terribly wrong with your civilization.

— ⁂ —

I reread Laura Ingalls Wilder's Little House on the Prairie last month, and I was struck by the description of the building process. If we take the description in the book as factual (not everything in the book is, but I assume in this case Ingalls Wilder was doing her best) it took a couple of weeks for a skilled carpenter and an unskilled assistant to build the single-room log cabin which afterwards housed a family of five for a year, plus another few days for the fireplace. But this was using raw materials from nature — trees chopped down and hauled from the creek by horse-drawn wagon, mud mortar to hold the fireplace stones together, mud for the chimney. (The chimney later caught fire due to shoddy construction and nearly burned down the house, and a dropped-log accident nearly broke Ma's foot. Building codes and safety rules are important!) Presumably the family had an outhouse for defecation, although the book shrinks from even mentioning such matters.

She doesn't give dimensions for the house, but it seems to have been around 4 m × 5 m, some 20 m², less than half the size I described above. My own apartment is 40 m²; fortunately I'm spending the quarantine at my girlfriend's apartment, which is some 50 m². (The roof leaks, the pipes burst, the curtains billow from the wind even when the window is closed, and whoever installed the electricals was either an idiot or a homicidal maniac, but she had my refrigerator, you see…)

— ⁂ —

How did we get from a situation where an average person could build a five-person house with four person-weeks of labor — 0.08 years' of per-capita GDP — without even the support of a manufacturing base to provide them with boards, bricks, and toilets, to a situation where an "affordable housing" unit costs 6 years' worth of the US per-capita GDP, and 7 years of the US median household income? That is, a median household in the US now needs to work for seven years to pay the cost of building a house, rather than two weeks. Half the population earns less even than that. When it comes to housing buying power, people in the US are three orders of magnitude poorer than 150 years ago, or than in the worst slums of Buenos Aires today. Something has gone terribly wrong with your civilization.

Some people might cite the cost of land (both the Isla Maciel residents and Ingalls Wilder's family simply took their land without paying for it), but consider https://www.landsofamerica.com/property/0.2-acres-in-Los-Ang..., 0.2 undeveloped acres for US$175000, about 20 km from downtown LA. In non-medieval units, that's 800 m², enough for 15 of the 49 m² single-story houses I described above, which works out to US$12000 per house; if you dig a basement, you could cut that to US$6000 per house, at some penalty to the construction cost. Moreover, if you could build a 15-story apartment building on half of that land (you can't, it's zoned industrial), it would hold some 100 apartments of 49 m² each, at a land cost of US$1750 per apartment. In a skyscraper you have to pour reinforced concrete slabs for floors, which isn't free, but at ground level it typically costs on the order of US$50 per square meter, which is only US$2500 for 50 m². $1750 + $2500 + $3400 = $7650 ≪ $414000! Something has gone terribly wrong with your civilization.

Some people might cite Baumol's cost disease: when productivity goes up, wages go up, and so goods that have fixed labor requirements become more expensive; Baumol's example is an hour of chamber quartet music, which continues to require four musicians for an hour, just as in 1787. (The article itself blames "union-level wages" for construction workers.) But that explanation would suggest that construction workers like Miguel Zamora could easily buy housing, and we know that's not true. Even if the whole workforce was earning the US$51 per hour cited for plumbers in the article, that would only add another US$2500 or so per dwelling to the numbers I calculated above.

— ⁂ —

What if, instead of using ten-thousand-year-old technologies like log cabins and bricks cemented together with mortar, we used modern technology to build housing?

You might get something like the Hexayurt, which costs under US$500, can be built by one unskilled person in less than a day, and shows up by the thousands every Burning Man: http://hexayurt.com/ — although there are some fire safety concerns with the material, so stuccoing it might be advisable. That might double the cost.

High-cube 40-foot shipping containers cost about US$7000 (or much less, used) and can be stacked into buildings many stories high; they are watertight, laugh at earthquakes, and have 28 m² of floor area. For $414000 you could buy dozens of them, maybe hundreds.

Or you might get something like modern trailer houses; I don't know how much these cost to make, but you can get them used for US$20k–US$40k, full of amenities like gas stoves, showers, cabinets, glass windows all around, multiple bathrooms, electrical outlets in all the walls, and central heating, unheard of in both Ingalls Wilder's time and in Isla Maciel. But could we maybe sacrifice some of the outlets, and the heavy welded steel frame that allows you to move your house to a different trailer park, in exchange for ending homelessness?

Something has gone terribly, terribly wrong with your civilization.

Re: California affordable housing is more expensive than luxury housing

#175
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still, you must concede that the parade of "rusty muffler" arguments are a silly compared to a legitimate housing crisis. Not everything our neighbors/family/friends do makes us happy. And hey, they might have a rusty muffler, but maybe they're less snobbish and more friendly. So while it's totally reasonable to be worried about traffic and school crowding, I feel people should at least try a bit harder to shrug thei…

I can see a system where you build where land is affordable, you bring transit there and you have buckets of units. Units for families, units for college kids, units for singles and you stratify the units so that like people end up with like people. Those who like quiet get quiet neighbors, those who like noise get noisy neighbors. Mix climbers with climbers and losers with other losers. You don't need groups that dr…

People disapprove of everything that involves "segregation" of different sub-cultures, even when that segregation is mutually beneficial. The American ideal is a spatially-uniform melting pot.

Re: California affordable housing is more expensive than luxury housing

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ooh, I'm gonna go with "a lot". Because motorcycles are a lot cheaper to buy, own, and maintain that cars. And a lot of them don't even require licenses in the US (49cc and smaller, if I'm not mistaken).

A cheap used car provides a lot more utility than an equivalently priced used motorcycle so that's what most people tend to buy if they can only have one vehicle.

Cars do have more utility than motorcycles, but where I live (college town in American midwest) there are many poor people who drive small, cheap motorcycles. Speculation on why:

State-minimum insurance for my cheap (KBB ~$1000) used (+200K miles) car would be about $700/year. Similarly minimal insurance for a 2010 Honda Ruckus would be $100/year. (I just checked Geico.)

Small motorcycles consume a lot less gasoline than cars, especially old, cheap ones being driven in-city.

Spare parts for scooters can be purchased and shipped cheaply, and assembled in a minimum of space with cheap hand tools.

Scooters don't require a full parking space to store. They can be stashed against signs, at bike racks, next to doors, in tiny alleys, or any other free spot. Living with other people? You don't need to worry about blocking the driveway, or being blocked yourself. Work downtown? You can get away without buying a pass at a parking garage.

Re: California affordable housing is more expensive than luxury housing

#177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A friend of mine lived in the bay area for a bit and ended up leaving because he couldn't handle the virtue signaling. From his experience a significant amount of people would talk about helping low socioeconomic folk, oppression, or any other in vogue topic but never actually do anything. These would then be the loudest voices lobbying against having a methadone clinic in their neighborhood. He's living in Denver no…

My summary of civic philosophy in the Bay Area: "Think liberally. Act conservatively." In addition to San Francisco I've lived in the US South, the Northeast an in Europe. And out of all those regions I feel the Bay Area has been the most conservative and discordant. It's really a shame how a combination of the Byzantine legal processes and small cadres who know and shape the system have created a tyranny of the mino…

The culture is fairly different between the South Bay vs. San Francisco. South Bay is largely full of immigrants living the American dream: they work hard at a FANG during the day, buy an expensive suburban house to go home to at night, take their kids to parks and cultural attractions on the weekends and do their best to make sure they get into a good college, and otherwise mind their own business. Basically like the rest of America but less white. SF has many more people who like to stick their nose in other people's business to enact radical social change. It also has more genuine diversity and weirdness. SF is where people like to do large-scale social experiments, the South Bay largely sticks to large-scale technical experiments.

This same distinction also applies to the type of startup that gets founded in each place. South Bay attracts more companies that are capitalizing on a technical change in the world - Google, Apple, Netflix, hardware companies like NVidia and Memorex, drone startups, large scale enterprise software like Cloudera or Palantir. San Francisco attracts more companies that are capitalizing on a social change: AirBnB, Uber, Lyft, Stripe, Zynga, Bird, Lime, Twitter, Medium, etc. Notable exceptions are Facebook (social change but in the South Bay, though they've also built a top-notch technology org) and DropBox (technical, but in SF).

Re: California affordable housing is more expensive than luxury housing

#178
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can see a system where you build where land is affordable, you bring transit there and you have buckets of units. Units for families, units for college kids, units for singles and you stratify the units so that like people end up with like people. Those who like quiet get quiet neighbors, those who like noise get noisy neighbors. Mix climbers with climbers and losers with other losers. You don't need groups that dr…

People disapprove of everything that involves "segregation" of different sub-cultures, even when that segregation is mutually beneficial. The American ideal is a spatially-uniform melting pot.

I’m not so sure people in Eastern Europe or parts of Africa and Asia would have an issue with this kind of stratification, but you may be right, it might go against cultural norms.

Re: California affordable housing is more expensive than luxury housing

#179

What can't be discounted besides the usual suspects of bad zoning, high cost of land etc. is construction costs. Basically an area gets so expensive that it prices out construction workers and their families. This is being seen in the bay area now as a typical single family home goes for over 1M in the pennisula/SF/South Bay area. Go farther out to the east bay, far south bay(gilroy etc) and prices are still 700/800k…

I can ask my friend again who worked on public housing projects ten years ago. But one thing I remember her saying is California is really leery of shoddy construction and the resulting blight. And blighted low income housing is a big big political problem. So low income housing has to be built to take a lot of abuse. Which of course $$$.

Re: California affordable housing is more expensive than luxury housing

#180
post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A cheap used car provides a lot more utility than an equivalently priced used motorcycle so that's what most people tend to buy if they can only have one vehicle.

Cars do have more utility than motorcycles, but where I live (college town in American midwest) there are many poor people who drive small, cheap motorcycles. Speculation on why: State-minimum insurance for my cheap (KBB ~$1000) used (+200K miles) car would be about $700/year. Similarly minimal insurance for a 2010 Honda Ruckus would be $100/year. (I just checked Geico.) Small motorcycles consume a lot less gasoline…

The number of places in the US where the situation you mentioned is reasonable and public transit is not also good enough to go car-less is very small. Carrying groceries on a moped is doable but a pain. Commuting on one in the winter isn't exactly fun either. Carrying kids on a scooter is a great way to meet every cop in every place you drive through. I wish mopeds were more practical but there's a bunch of little reasons that add up to them not working as well as a cheap car.... which is why pretty much nobody around me except a bunch of single people under the age of about 25 rides them.
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