It seems like everybody in this thread is saying "No duh, invest in Japan right now!" The assumption is that the market will turn around, and anybody who buys into Japanese companies stands to make a lot of money. If this is the case, then why are the prices going down at all? Are other investors really that ignorant?
Bottom just fell out of Nikkei
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Re: Bottom just fell out of Nikkei
#62Re: Bottom just fell out of Nikkei
#63It seems like everybody in this thread is saying "No duh, invest in Japan right now!" The assumption is that the market will turn around, and anybody who buys into Japanese companies stands to make a lot of money. If this is the case, then why are the prices going down at all? Are other investors really that ignorant?
Another sad fact of this disaster is that it disproportionately affected the retired -- this too may well have consequences economically.
Economics is in part about people having productive stuff to do. If there was a work shortage in Japan before, I doubt there is now.
Re: Bottom just fell out of Nikkei
#64Re: Bottom just fell out of Nikkei
#65It seems like everybody in this thread is saying "No duh, invest in Japan right now!" The assumption is that the market will turn around, and anybody who buys into Japanese companies stands to make a lot of money. If this is the case, then why are the prices going down at all? Are other investors really that ignorant?
If you are already invested in Japanese equities the "safe" play is to try to take some cash off the table to defend against what could be a bleak revenue picture in the near future. If you are not yet in that market then there might be a long term play investing when these stocks are weak. Id assume most here who advocate buying are in this boat. Both buying and selling may be the correct play depending on your curr…
These aren't rhetorical questions, this is just my line of thought based on my relative ignorance of investing.
Re: Bottom just fell out of Nikkei
#66It seems like everybody in this thread is saying "No duh, invest in Japan right now!" The assumption is that the market will turn around, and anybody who buys into Japanese companies stands to make a lot of money. If this is the case, then why are the prices going down at all? Are other investors really that ignorant?
Many people who are levered don't have the capital to withstand this type of drop and get washed out causing further selling.
It's a chain reaction that eventually cools off. Let's hope their fuel rods do the same!
Re: Bottom just fell out of Nikkei
#67Earlier quoted context omitted.
Unless you really want to play with buying/selling individual stocks, you're probably best off buying a broad-based index fund, which effectively buys you a slice of the entire stock market. Eg VTSMX/VTSAX Also, are your 401k and IRA/Roth fully funded? Be sure to do that first. (Assuming USA resident here)
Could you make an argument for bothering to fund 401k + IRA/Roth at 20-something? If I'm trying to get fuck-you money by 40, don't I need every dime in order to get there? My nest egg is in plain old savings right now because I view it as personal runway.
If you are not making $100k+, you are not going to have fuck-you money by 40. All the Facebook stock in the world still requires a liquidity event, which is unrealistic at the current valuation.
Re: Bottom just fell out of Nikkei
#68Re: Bottom just fell out of Nikkei
#69It seems like everybody in this thread is saying "No duh, invest in Japan right now!" The assumption is that the market will turn around, and anybody who buys into Japanese companies stands to make a lot of money. If this is the case, then why are the prices going down at all? Are other investors really that ignorant?
When Steve Jobs announced his medical leave just under two months ago, the Apple (AAPL) price opened the next day (Tuesday) down 5.44% on Friday's close price. The low point on Tuesday was 6.45% lower than Friday's close price.
While the price did go back up a bit that same day (the Tuesday close was only 2.25% lower than Friday's close price), it kept dropping for a few days. By the time the markets closed on Friday, AAPL's price was 326.72, down 6.24% in a week (compare that Friday close price to AAPL's lowest price on Tuesday, which was 326.00).
For some reason, investors were selling Apple stock because of fears over Jobs. This seemed ridiculous to me, and sure enough, in the (nearly) two months since then, the market has shown that I'm not alone in that view.
If you bought AAPL stock at that Friday closing price and sold right now, you'd be selling 8.21% higher than you bought. Even if you didn't time the buying quite as well, so didn't get it at such a low price, if you bought it at the opening price on Tuesday (the day after the Jobs announcement) you'd have made 7.30% profit, or if you bought it at the closing price on that same day and sold now, you would have made 3.79% profit.
So even with pretty shit timing on when to buy, just by having faith that Apple stock would bounce back, that's a very healthy rise in value over just two months.
The cause (I think) of the problem is two-fold. For starters, people are afraid that, if they buy back in too early, they will be too far ahead of the market and prices will continue to drop - obviously, they're hoping to be just a tiny bit quicker than the market, buying just before prices start going back up again quickly.
The second reason is basically the same, but with a different approach. Rather than wanting to avoid having your shares devalue immediately after buying them, it's a case of not wanting to buy back in too soon because, the lower the price you pay, the bigger the return once they have bounced back.
Re: Bottom just fell out of Nikkei
#70How does one invest in the Nikkei 225 in the USA? I'm looking for an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) type of deal. I see that there are a couple mutual funds (UJPIX) but I'm more interested in something on one of the US markets.