If you believe in the power of targeted marketing, believe in TikTok. I didn't log in, I gave this app no information about me at all and it managed to turn 1 or 2 likes into a stream of endless content that hit a certain spot for me. I had to delete it.
TikTok has recently traded at valuations of $105-110B on private markets
141–150 of 156 posts
Re: TikTok has recently traded at valuations of $105-110B on private markets
#142Earlier quoted context omitted.
This was my first reaction also but making a quick google search it seems that TikTok has 500 million users. That's a lot. Doing a pretty simple calculation of a dollar per user per day, you arrive quickly at 180 billion dollars of advertising monetization a year. It is really just another scale. But yeah, maybe i am way off and the valuation is still absurd.
One dollar per day !? That's an obscenely high level. Facebook is one of the highest revenue per user social media companies by orders if magnitude and they made worldwide an average of 7.26 per user in an entire financial quarter, which is like 8 or 9 cents per day. If tiktok is outdoing facebook by a full order of magnitude, and has 1/5th the users, even with identical growth expectations they'd be twice the valuat…
I wonder what the amount spent by users on advertised products per quarter is... presumably more but that seems like a lot especially if that is worldwide.
Re: TikTok has recently traded at valuations of $105-110B on private markets
#143I really can't fathom how this is possible. The largely young demographic (which I'm guessing warrants this valuation) has a track record of jumping from platform to platform, whichever is trendy for a given year. With that in mind, how are investors seriously willing to get behind this company in such a big way?
Facebook was able to leverage their popularity with college students into a larger platform that had mass appeal with all age groups. I don't see why TikTok can't add features and get the same results.
TikTok is a bit headache inducing for anyone not under 20. Anyway I don't think humans should be receiving that much stimulation, and information overload in such short bursts.
Re: TikTok has recently traded at valuations of $105-110B on private markets
#144Earlier quoted context omitted.
Facebook has network effect, TikTock doesn't really. Facebook is really centered around 'everyone you might know' including friends and family, whereas I doubt parents and grandparents will ever go onto TikTok. Most importantly, TikTok is not basic communications tool, it's a specialized communications tool honed on a timely and probably faddish trend. Facebook may or may may not survive, but TikTok will have to tran…
Instagram doesn't have the same network effect as Facebook. Snapchat does have Quick Add, which shows people you might know; it's also a much more communication-driven platform. TikTok is probably the modern Instagram replacement, not the modern Facebook replacement.
The barrier to making TikToks is much higher than for Instagram posts. It takes hours to make a decent TikTok; it takes second to make a decent Instagram Story post. For that reason, I see TikTok as more adjacent to YouTube than Instagram.
Re: TikTok has recently traded at valuations of $105-110B on private markets
#145Earlier quoted context omitted.
Maybe this isn't a substantive comment, but I think China understands America more than the other way around.
Thanks to Hollywood, American TV shows, and the Internet being predominantly US/English dominated, every country understands America more than the other way round.
There's also the massive Chinese diaspora.
Re: TikTok has recently traded at valuations of $105-110B on private markets
#146Social media in the US was always something I thought that Chinese companies couldn't penetrate due to cultural differences. The fact that they have means so many more US tech businesses are potentially at risk, because China's tech sector is extremely strong on the software side, even on the open source side (Ant design for react, Vue js). This is despite relatively high anti-China sentiments: see Koa-router being t…
Maybe this isn't a substantive comment, but I think China understands America more than the other way around.
That is probably true with America when compared with any other country. When I was in elementary school some kids thought Canada was just another state!
Re: TikTok has recently traded at valuations of $105-110B on private markets
#147Earlier quoted context omitted.
This was my first reaction also but making a quick google search it seems that TikTok has 500 million users. That's a lot. Doing a pretty simple calculation of a dollar per user per day, you arrive quickly at 180 billion dollars of advertising monetization a year. It is really just another scale. But yeah, maybe i am way off and the valuation is still absurd.
Where did you get that “simple calculation” from? If Average user is worth to TikTok a dollar per day that means that ad buyers are willing to give it to TikTok from their advertising and marketing budget. Which means that the average user should spend at least few grands each year on advertised products and services, which does not seem likely. Also, this is not how valuations are estimated. 180 billion _per year_ i…
Yes, that's correct. A dollar per day is huge, and that would bring the valuation close to a revenue multiple of one, which is madness by market standards. If you would make it 10 cents per day, which seems more reasonable according to people more informed than me, that would become simply a multiple of 10, which is still low, as you pointed it out. We can keep changing the variables, divide it by 2 even, but the point i tried to make is that it seems not that crazy of a valuation after all if you consider 500mi users as an average
Re: TikTok has recently traded at valuations of $105-110B on private markets
#148Here today, gone tomorrow. Like AOL, Myspace and Compuserve before them.
TikTok doesn't have anything other than a fleeting fascination with today's youth. As they age, the next generation will find something else.
Does TikTok even have assets? real estate, manufacturing capabilities, intellectual property ... oh and paying customers?
Re: TikTok has recently traded at valuations of $105-110B on private markets
#149TikTok proved to be a perfect secret clubhouse for Gen Z sensibilities of humor, nihilism, and celebration of differences. But as older generations pile on that do not pass the "vibe check", it is already slowly starting to ruin the party. It's still the best party in town, but hopefully ByteDance is humble enough to realize TikTok's success is about a lucky coupling of a format and cultural moment.
If what you’re saying is true, then in a sense a lot of these apps are like the Seinfeld of the time. Eventually the season finale happens, and very few end up being a Simpsons (Facebook). Profit while you can I guess.
Seinfeld still makes good money though.
Re: TikTok has recently traded at valuations of $105-110B on private markets
#150Do any of these kind of apps ever make money? Or do they just get pumped and dumped?
Yes. Billions in profit