Covid-19 Vaccine Candidates • Hacker News Board

Re: Covid-19 Vaccine Candidates

#51

Post by collyw » Wed, May 20, 2020, 4:07 PM UTC

ryanwaggoner wrote: post #38

erfgh wrote: post #33

Given the ages and health conditions of the dead, what is the chance that a vaccine will do any good to them? Remember that the flu vaccine is of very dubious effectiveness on those aged 65+. Of course, vaccinating the whole population might render those groups less likely to be infected (because of herd immunity) but still, it will involve vaccinating populations which have little risk from the disease with a vaccin…

Remember that the flu vaccine is of very dubious effectiveness on those aged 65+ The CDC still recommends vaccines for the elderly: Because of age-related changes in their immune systems, people 65 years and older may not respond as well to vaccination as younger people. Although immune responses may be lower in the elderly, studies have consistently found that flu vaccine has been effective in reducing the chance of…

They are still only ~50% effective.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm

Re: Covid-19 Vaccine Candidates

#52

Post by bsaul » Wed, May 20, 2020, 4:13 PM UTC

whatshisface wrote: post #5

bsaul wrote: post #3

Question: if the virus completely dissapears in a few months, like other SARS variant, should we vaccinate the world population ?

Obviously not, but why would it do that? It's already spread in a way that none of the other SARS variants have, which invalidates that part of the analogy.

why is the virus already disappearing from all over europe ? If it's because of containment then it will reappear very soon since everybody here is starting to get out again.

We don't know why viruses appear and disappear, but they do all the time, every year.

Re: Covid-19 Vaccine Candidates

#53

Post by kolinko » Wed, May 20, 2020, 4:18 PM UTC

bsaul wrote: post #52

whatshisface wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Obviously not, but why would it do that? It's already spread in a way that none of the other SARS variants have, which invalidates that part of the analogy.

why is the virus already disappearing from all over europe ? If it's because of containment then it will reappear very soon since everybody here is starting to get out again. We don't know why viruses appear and disappear, but they do all the time, every year.

First of all, we know why viruses disappear.

Secondly, we know why it’s disappearing - it’s clearly associated with containment measures.

Re: Covid-19 Vaccine Candidates

#54

Post by kolinko » Wed, May 20, 2020, 4:20 PM UTC

anthonybennis wrote: post #6

bsaul wrote: post #3

Question: if the virus completely dissapears in a few months, like other SARS variant, should we vaccinate the world population ?

Is there any trend or metric we can monitor for sign of that? Like, average time required in ICU shortening, which may mean virus is weakening?

One thing would be seeing a significant mutation appearing in the wild, and noticing that people with that mitation have less symptoms.

For covid, the mutations were minimal, which makes sense - the virus’ construction make it unlikely to mutate (unlike flu).

Re: Covid-19 Vaccine Candidates

#55

Post by bsaul » Wed, May 20, 2020, 4:22 PM UTC

kolinko wrote: post #53

bsaul wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why is the virus already disappearing from all over europe ? If it's because of containment then it will reappear very soon since everybody here is starting to get out again. We don't know why viruses appear and disappear, but they do all the time, every year.

First of all, we know why viruses disappear. Secondly, we know why it’s disappearing - it’s clearly associated with containment measures.

Do you have articles explaining that ? I'm not a biologist, so i'm only reporting what i've heard and read from professionals working on the subject, but maybe you've got better sources.

Re: Covid-19 Vaccine Candidates

#56

Post by Touche » Wed, May 20, 2020, 5:31 PM UTC

ianhawes wrote: post #15

Touche wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Serious question, how could it disappear? It seems like as long as there are people close enough to infect, it will infect them. There are cases in warm environments. What am I missing?

Previous pandemics (most notably 1918 Spanish flu) have “disappeared” in the sense that they had either exhausted the pool of hosts and had no natural reservoir with which to fall back on or they mutated to become less deadly or less symptomatic.

Not in a few months.

Re: Covid-19 Vaccine Candidates

#57

Post by Touche » Wed, May 20, 2020, 5:33 PM UTC

kolinko wrote: post #54

anthonybennis wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any trend or metric we can monitor for sign of that? Like, average time required in ICU shortening, which may mean virus is weakening?

One thing would be seeing a significant mutation appearing in the wild, and noticing that people with that mitation have less symptoms. For covid, the mutations were minimal, which makes sense - the virus’ construction make it unlikely to mutate (unlike flu).

That wouldn't make the virus disappear though, it would make it less severe. Which is good! Hopefully that happens. That it mutates to the point of being significantly less deadly before a vaccine seems unlikely to me.

Re: Covid-19 Vaccine Candidates

#58

Post by joe_maley » Wed, May 20, 2020, 7:33 PM UTC

standardUser wrote: post #30

joe_maley wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What am I missing? delusion

Accepting that we know still very little about this pandemic and how it will play out is the only perspective that is not delusional.

That was my point: it is delusional to believe that the virus will "completely disappear in a few months".

User "Touche" asked what he is missing to be convinced that the virus will disappear: he is missing delusion.

Re: Covid-19 Vaccine Candidates

#59

Post by ryanwaggoner » Wed, May 20, 2020, 7:39 PM UTC

collyw wrote: post #51

ryanwaggoner wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remember that the flu vaccine is of very dubious effectiveness on those aged 65+ The CDC still recommends vaccines for the elderly: Because of age-related changes in their immune systems, people 65 years and older may not respond as well to vaccination as younger people. Although immune responses may be lower in the elderly, studies have consistently found that flu vaccine has been effective in reducing the chance of…

They are still only ~50% effective. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm

There's a vast gulf between "~50% effective" and "very dubious effectiveness"

Re: Covid-19 Vaccine Candidates

#60

Post by lbeltrame » Wed, May 20, 2020, 8:32 PM UTC

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #44

missosoup wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh absolutely. Eradicating this thing via vaccination any time in the next 24 months will take a completely unprecedented feat of worldwide collaboration. But I'm optimistic, the current situation has everyone focused on the issue. Except Trump trying to get some special deals for early access or whatever the fuck it is that he's doing.

Any country that physically manufactures vaccine doses isn't going to allow many exports until they have a sufficient domestic supply. That's not just a Trump thing.

That's precisely why many vaccine producers are seeking partnership and starting manufacturing at risk.

As an example, Moderna teamed up with Lonza (and also got a big grant from BARDA). Oxford / Vaccitech has deals with Astra Zeneca, Merck, and a few other manufacturers.