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Covid-19 Vaccine Candidates

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Re: Covid-19 Vaccine Candidates

#11

Post by zxexz »

bsaul wrote: post #3

Question: if the virus completely dissapears in a few months, like other SARS variant, should we vaccinate the world population ?

We're well past the stage where the virus may 'disappear'. Look at MERS[0] (which is still around) and SARS[1]. Compare that to COVID-19 [2].

I'd say the case for vaccination is pretty obvious, even if there is a lull in cases. Seasonal COVID outbreaks don't sound fun.

[0] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7d/Wo...

[1] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e0/20...

[2] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fa/To...

Re: Covid-19 Vaccine Candidates

#12

Post by zxexz »

lbeltrame wrote: post #10
missosoup wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it did disappear, sure. But it won't. Way too many infected all over the globe now, eradication is impossible without a vaccine. Either it will eventually infect the entire world, or we'll vaccinate against it. Those are the only two options at this point. Even if an entire nation managed to eradicate it via distancing, it would only take a single carrier arriving by any means from another country to initiate a se…

Third option: we fight it with drugs and we prevent / reduce hospitalizations, and it becomes a disease like every other.

Vaccines will help with that, like with the flu.

Re: Covid-19 Vaccine Candidates

#13

Post by missosoup »

lbeltrame wrote: post #10
missosoup wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it did disappear, sure. But it won't. Way too many infected all over the globe now, eradication is impossible without a vaccine. Either it will eventually infect the entire world, or we'll vaccinate against it. Those are the only two options at this point. Even if an entire nation managed to eradicate it via distancing, it would only take a single carrier arriving by any means from another country to initiate a se…

Third option: we fight it with drugs and we prevent / reduce hospitalizations, and it becomes a disease like every other.

No, that's the first option - it will eventually infect the whole world no matter how much you improve outcomes or slow it down. Unmitigated R0 of SARS-CoV-2 is extremely high, we can't keep it contained with spreaders all over the globe creating micro clusters every day. I didn't say it'll kill the whole world, just infect.

Many countries have already brought their case rates down to almost 0, and every single one that attempted to resume economic activity saw the case rates spike again, with many now re-introducing distancing measures again. This genie is not going back into the bottle.

The first option is actually potentially more viable on a reasonable timeline than vaccination, especially if we manage to find some kind of effective therapeutics which reduce the ICU and mortality rates.

There is however a potential issue, which is based on SARS data, immunity in recovered individuals only lasts 1-2 years. So unless there's a concerted effort to eradicate via immunisation, there's a measurable risk that SARS-CoV-2 will become a seasonal repeating wave like Influenza.

Re: Covid-19 Vaccine Candidates

#15

Post by ianhawes »

Touche wrote: post #4
bsaul wrote: post #3

Question: if the virus completely dissapears in a few months, like other SARS variant, should we vaccinate the world population ?

Serious question, how could it disappear? It seems like as long as there are people close enough to infect, it will infect them. There are cases in warm environments. What am I missing?

Previous pandemics (most notably 1918 Spanish flu) have “disappeared” in the sense that they had either exhausted the pool of hosts and had no natural reservoir with which to fall back on or they mutated to become less deadly or less symptomatic.

Re: Covid-19 Vaccine Candidates

#16

Post by jmull »

bsaul wrote: post #3

Question: if the virus completely dissapears in a few months, like other SARS variant, should we vaccinate the world population ?

> completely dissapears

Seems unlikely.

sars-cov-2 has proven to be much more difficult to contain than sars-cov-1.

Even if it was contained and was greatly reduced, we'd face a substantial risk of another wave. Supposing we had an effective, safe vaccine with reasonable cost, balancing the risk and cost of vaccinating vs not vaccinating, I'm pretty sure we'd want to vaccinate. The last thing we'd want is another global shutdown in, e.g. 2022.

In any case, this would be a wonderful choice to face, since it assumes covid-19 is gone and a safe, effective vaccine with reasonable cost exists.

Re: Covid-19 Vaccine Candidates

#17

Post by wyuenho »

whatshisface wrote: post #5
bsaul wrote: post #3

Question: if the virus completely dissapears in a few months, like other SARS variant, should we vaccinate the world population ?

Obviously not, but why would it do that? It's already spread in a way that none of the other SARS variants have, which invalidates that part of the analogy.

Global natural herd immunity could suppress the disease cases to next to nothing. The problem is there's a very high price to pay before we get there.

Re: Covid-19 Vaccine Candidates

#18

Post by lbeltrame »

missosoup wrote: post #13
lbeltrame wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Third option: we fight it with drugs and we prevent / reduce hospitalizations, and it becomes a disease like every other.

No, that's the first option - it will eventually infect the whole world no matter how much you improve outcomes or slow it down. Unmitigated R0 of SARS-CoV-2 is extremely high, we can't keep it contained with spreaders all over the globe creating micro clusters every day. I didn't say it'll kill the whole world, just infect. Many countries have already brought their case rates down to almost 0, and every single one t…

I have no hard data (and I don't think anyone has, at this point), but eradication is IMO going to be tricky even if we have a very potent vaccine, at least looking at how much it took for chicken pox.

Re: Covid-19 Vaccine Candidates

#19

Post by rsynnott »

dgritsko wrote: post #2

Twelve candidates in clinical trials according to the table. That sounds like a lot, but I have no idea how that number compares to other vaccines. Is this a typical number, or is it high/low?

It seems like a lot, but under the circumstances that shouldn't be surprising.

Re: Covid-19 Vaccine Candidates

#20

Post by rsynnott »

bsaul wrote: post #3

Question: if the virus completely dissapears in a few months, like other SARS variant, should we vaccinate the world population ?

The SARS-1 outbreak lasted about two years.

But if it _does_ vanish in a few months (sadly, this doesn't seem plausible), it would probably make sense to produce and stockpile a vaccine, if a viable one is found, but not actually vaccinate unless it reappears.

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