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Deconfinement: The Price of Human Life

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Re: Deconfinement: The Price of Human Life

#31

Post by xapata »

luckylion wrote: post #6
Normal_gaussian wrote: post #3

Something that seems not to be considered by many observers is that if a disease is not eliminated, it will continuously either claim lives or reduce efficiency (which claims lives).

Is there reasonable hope for a virus like this to be completely eliminated? I figure if it's in that sweet spot of contagiousness, incubation time and mortality, it's hard to eradicate completely. And unless it's eradicated completely, we'll absolutely have to live with reduced efficiency in hyper-alert testing of anyone with symptoms, unless we find that it ceases to be a serious problem once humans have had contact…

Unlikely, as it can be passed to animals, then mutate and return to humans. The flu vaccine is designed and distributed annually based on the most likely strains. My guess is a similar pattern for strains of coronavirus.

Re: Deconfinement: The Price of Human Life

#32

Post by sigotirandolas »

boomboomsubban wrote: post #28

>The Hong Kong Flu caused more deaths than are projected for this current pandemic and yet, at the time, no one thought of bringing entire economies to a halt. The other way to look at it, even with the quarentine this pandemic will kill a similar number of people. If the reports were true that "half the workers were in bed," that would mean there were millions of cases, yet only ~50k deaths. Compare that to the curr…

There have been many, many more cases than the official confirmed (=medically tested/diagnosed positive) cases. For example data in Spain points to 5% prevalence (~2M infected) with ~25k deaths (official number, may be higher due to unverified and side cases).

Re: Deconfinement: The Price of Human Life

#33

Post by Gibbon1 »

manigandham wrote: post #18
drapred7 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the movement restrictions cost lives, why are total fatalities down? (even including SARS deaths)

These deaths aren't as acute. Deaths from economic depression will take longer to manifest than a sudden illness.

That sounds like a call for a coherent policy rather than the do nothing that's being proposed here.

Re: Deconfinement: The Price of Human Life

#34

Post by pmiller2 »

Regarding sending people to the moon, I don't believe we've changed how we calculate the value of human life in this scenario at all. Remember, astronauts volunteer to strap themselves to gigantic tanks of explosives, all for the chance to experience the universe personally in a way very few humans ever have.

Rather, I think the issues here are:

* America literally watched 14 people die on national TV.

* At the time of the Columbia disaster in 2003, the Space Shuttle was already a 30 year old vehicle (Columbia itself was 22 years old when it was lost), based on 40 year old designs.

* We realized we just don't need humans on the moon. Compared with robots, we're terribly fragile, inefficient, and largely superfluous on the surface of the Moon in a lunar exploration mission.

Re: Deconfinement: The Price of Human Life

#35

Post by thepete2 »

boomboomsubban wrote: post #28

>The Hong Kong Flu caused more deaths than are projected for this current pandemic and yet, at the time, no one thought of bringing entire economies to a halt. The other way to look at it, even with the quarentine this pandemic will kill a similar number of people. If the reports were true that "half the workers were in bed," that would mean there were millions of cases, yet only ~50k deaths. Compare that to the curr…

I can't follow the argument. The Hong Kong Flu caused more deaths without the economy shutting down than this epidemic with the economy shutting down, therefore what?

Re: Deconfinement: The Price of Human Life

#36

Post by tonyedgecombe »

Lazare wrote: post #2

Some good points, although I'd toss another thought into the mix. The confinements and shutdowns and shelter in place orders also cost lives. We know that recessions cost lives. One study (published in The Lancet, so worth taking a second look at) suggested 500k excess cancer deaths from the global financial crisis[1], and another study (published in the BMJ) suggested that excess suicides in 2009 alone across the US…

The confinements and shutdowns and shelter in place orders also cost lives.

You have to remember the economic slowdowns started before the lockdowns were in place. Even without lockdown we were in for a lot of economic pain.

Re: Deconfinement: The Price of Human Life

#37

Post by WalterBright »

pmiller2 wrote: post #34

Regarding sending people to the moon, I don't believe we've changed how we calculate the value of human life in this scenario at all. Remember, astronauts volunteer to strap themselves to gigantic tanks of explosives, all for the chance to experience the universe personally in a way very few humans ever have. Rather, I think the issues here are: * America literally watched 14 people die on national TV. * At the time…

> We realized we just don't need humans on the moon. Compared with robots, we're terribly fragile, inefficient, and largely superfluous on the surface of the Moon in a lunar exploration mission.

Robots are inflexible. There's nothing like human eyes and hands.

Re: Deconfinement: The Price of Human Life

#38

Post by js8 »

Lazare wrote: post #2

Some good points, although I'd toss another thought into the mix. The confinements and shutdowns and shelter in place orders also cost lives. We know that recessions cost lives. One study (published in The Lancet, so worth taking a second look at) suggested 500k excess cancer deaths from the global financial crisis[1], and another study (published in the BMJ) suggested that excess suicides in 2009 alone across the US…

> We know that recessions cost lives.

Interesting, I read a different view: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/28/a-rece...

I am not sure how to reconcile this.

Re: Deconfinement: The Price of Human Life

#39

Post by pmiller2 »

WalterBright wrote: post #37
pmiller2 wrote: post #34

Regarding sending people to the moon, I don't believe we've changed how we calculate the value of human life in this scenario at all. Remember, astronauts volunteer to strap themselves to gigantic tanks of explosives, all for the chance to experience the universe personally in a way very few humans ever have. Rather, I think the issues here are: * America literally watched 14 people die on national TV. * At the time…

> We realized we just don't need humans on the moon. Compared with robots, we're terribly fragile, inefficient, and largely superfluous on the surface of the Moon in a lunar exploration mission. Robots are inflexible. There's nothing like human eyes and hands.

Even if I agreed with you in this context (I don't -- hands inside space suits are clumsy, and eyes limited in what they can perceive compared to instruments), we can keep the people here on Earth operating the robots with ~1 second latency, and it will be fine. We even operate rovers on Mars with ~20 minute latency, and they've worked out well.

Re: Deconfinement: The Price of Human Life

#40

Post by ekianjo »

watwut wrote: post #24
ekianjo wrote: post #5

> In the end, these determinations all place an unspoken price on human life We are already doing this by letting people drive with personal vehicles every year even they cost dozens of thousands of lives. There is no zero risk, but we decide (we, as in, the society at large, not individuals) what level of harm is "acceptable".

We have incredible amount of regulations on what personal vehicles can do and how they can be made. We did not just accepted deaths from automobiles, we wrote driving rules, mandate seat bells, automobile makers have to prove their cars pass safety tests.

Yet we still have dozens of thousands of people dying from them every year and nobody stops sleeping at night at the same time.
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