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Tesla plans to build a new car factory in Texas

arstechnica.com

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Re: Tesla plans to build a new car factory in Texas

#71

Post by trianglem »

ardy42 wrote: post #46
eloff wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the rule with Elon Musk is all his estimates are extremely optimistic and you need to multiply them by two or three to get closer to reality. But I'm sure it serves a purpose in giving his employees an aggressive target to aim at. Even if they miss it, at least they probably got there sooner.

> But I'm sure it serves a purpose in giving his employees an aggressive target to aim at. Even if they miss it, at least they probably got there sooner. That only works until the employees quickly realize the estimates are impossible bullshit, and stop taking them seriously.

Well that’s where management steps in and doesn’t let you disregard the deadline. It makes for a miserable work experience but you can probably achieve a lot that way.

Re: Tesla plans to build a new car factory in Texas

#72

Post by JacobDotVI »

dahfizz wrote: post #57
asdfgininio wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It always stuns me what people are able to explain away when it comes to these Captains of Industry. If we can realize the goal is ridiculous, surely the engineers who work on this full time will realize it's ridiculous.

And maybe their takeaway is the same as ours: "This is a big priority and I need to get it done ASAP". Isn't that exactly what Musk is trying to get across?

Urgency and scarcity also encourage folks to find solutions that they wouldn’t otherwise search for if they could just wait for the status quo approach.

The flip side to doing things that don’t scale is that once those practices become a standard part of your operations you are forced to figure out how to scale them. This causes you to find the scalability hell or high water whereas if you didn’t do the thing in the first place you never would have invented the scalability.

Re: Tesla plans to build a new car factory in Texas

#73

Post by rrrrrrrrrrrryan »

eloff wrote: post #30
outside1234 wrote: post #6

"But Musk is said to want to start construction extremely soon and aims to have Model Y vehicles coming out of the plant by the end of the year." That is just delusional.

I think the rule with Elon Musk is all his estimates are extremely optimistic and you need to multiply them by two or three to get closer to reality. But I'm sure it serves a purpose in giving his employees an aggressive target to aim at. Even if they miss it, at least they probably got there sooner.

He does occasionally hit the estimates - people have provided examples in this thread.

I think he tries to just publicise the unpadded, best-case-scenario estimates rather than the best-guess estimates to push people to eliminate any slack in the project.

Re: Tesla plans to build a new car factory in Texas

#74

Post by mplewis »

voodooranger wrote: post #7
outside1234 wrote: post #6

"But Musk is said to want to start construction extremely soon and aims to have Model Y vehicles coming out of the plant by the end of the year." That is just delusional.

maybe. but they’re getting better at building the machine that builds the machine that builds the machine.

Maybe he should get better at building cars.

Re: Tesla plans to build a new car factory in Texas

#75

Post by aguyfromnb »

eloff wrote: post #30
outside1234 wrote: post #6

"But Musk is said to want to start construction extremely soon and aims to have Model Y vehicles coming out of the plant by the end of the year." That is just delusional.

I think the rule with Elon Musk is all his estimates are extremely optimistic and you need to multiply them by two or three to get closer to reality. But I'm sure it serves a purpose in giving his employees an aggressive target to aim at. Even if they miss it, at least they probably got there sooner.

>I think the rule with Elon Musk is all his estimates are extremely optimistic and you need to multiply them by two or three to get closer to reality.

What about all the promises that have been made that never came to fruition? Do we just exclude those from this formula?

Re: Tesla plans to build a new car factory in Texas

#76

Post by retr0grad3 »

mariojv wrote: post #66
Cactus2018 wrote: post #29

Building a factory in Texas worked for Toyota https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Motor_Manufacturing_Tex...

Absolutely. There aren't a lot of details in the article, so I'm wondering where exactly near Austin they're thinking of building the factory. San Antonio's only an hour to an hour and a half south of Austin and is where this Toyota plant is located. There's a lot of really inexpensive land within a quick drive of the city and an airport with enough direct flights to get around.

So East of town (Austinite here) there's a lot of wide-open space. My money is on something East of 130 toll road near the Circuit of the Americas. I could see a lot of incentives being thrown that way from the Red McCombs family (major funder of COTA, highly influential in TX politics) to build alongside or nearby.

Re: Tesla plans to build a new car factory in Texas

#77

Post by aguyfromnb »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #25
tech-historian wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, construction in China != construction in the US. US has permits, environmental reviews, inspections, labor laws, etc etc that all add time.

Texas is rolling out the mat for Tesla [1]. They will move faster on permitting and reviews. Tesla seems to be moving quickly with GF4 construction in Berlin [2], even with German labor laws (which is good! you still have to make sure labor regulation is adhered to). Texas is not California. The deadline is not set in stone; it is an aspirational goal to motivate. Lots of oil and gas (O&G) construction/services folks…

Hey, it's the guy who called Tesla a "good corporate citizen" just a few months ago. Let's add: breaking stay-at-home orders, called the US government "fascist" while praising China, hired people to hack the personal computers of a whistleblower (as reported in a recent deposition filing), extorted the California government, and forced their workers back to the factory floor amid the pandemic to the list of "good" things.

Re: Tesla plans to build a new car factory in Texas

#78

Post by kirubakaran »

eloff wrote: post #30
outside1234 wrote: post #6

"But Musk is said to want to start construction extremely soon and aims to have Model Y vehicles coming out of the plant by the end of the year." That is just delusional.

I think the rule with Elon Musk is all his estimates are extremely optimistic and you need to multiply them by two or three to get closer to reality. But I'm sure it serves a purpose in giving his employees an aggressive target to aim at. Even if they miss it, at least they probably got there sooner.

Reminds me of the iterated prisoners dilemma style party planning I've experienced with my compatriots, where the host expects everyone to be at least an hour late and sets the party start time an hour earlier than they want, and of course the guests expect this and show up two hours late, and so on. The few people (host or guests) who take start time literally are slowly driven insane.

Re: Tesla plans to build a new car factory in Texas

#79

Post by aguyfromnb »

DanCarvajal wrote: post #17
toolz wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So they've already built a factory in under a year, but it's delusional to think they could cut that time by 30-40%? I don't think it's likely to happen, but delusional is a stretch.

To be clear China built Tesla a factory in a year, it is a big difference.

Exactly. I think some HNers would be amazed if they read the terms associated with Tesla doing business in China.

Re: Tesla plans to build a new car factory in Texas

#80

Post by jjtheblunt »

outside1234 wrote: post #6

"But Musk is said to want to start construction extremely soon and aims to have Model Y vehicles coming out of the plant by the end of the year." That is just delusional.

what if the slow stage is acquiring the heavy machinery (stamps, industrial robotics), and those are available with less delay than before?
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