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Doordash and Pizza Arbitrage

themargins.substack.com

181–190 of 534 posts

Re: Doordash and Pizza Arbitrage

#181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I bet the person physically receiving the wine/goods is some gullible, naive person who has been social engineered into thinking they're working for a legit business. It's like the 419 emails where they are trying to "recruit a remote working employee in our finance department" where your job is actually to receive fraudulent ACH wire transfers and send the money to some overseas destinations, go to a bitcoin ATM and…

From what I can gather, it is a ring of people behind this operation likely getting a commission for each 'drop' back at base https://www.google.com/maps/place/101+bowery+st/@40.7176021,...

So money laundering

Re: Doordash and Pizza Arbitrage

#182
This whole sphere of economic activity is a gigantic farce. It would be hilarious if it weren't so pestilent. The only upshot I can see is that it feels like people are finally catching on to it.

Re: Doordash and Pizza Arbitrage

#183
post #16

Lose a few 100 million today for a monopoly next year. I make the assumption here that these delivery services are intent on dominating the search results so that independent restaurants are not able to compete. They are forced into using the services, or rather having a large majority of other orders coming from these services.

What's amazing to me is that they can all so brazenly pursue a strategy of "monopoly or bust" without any fear of regulatory action once they reach that endgame. I'm not sure whether it speaks more to the foolishness of VCs, or to the corruption of regulatory institutions.

Re: Doordash and Pizza Arbitrage

#184
post #166

Wow, that was great. And honestly good on them for profit-taking on this arbitrage. The author likes to pin this on zero-interest rates ("ZIRP") and that certainly explains why the system is awash with cash but I'd say he's missing a key point here. When I moved to NYC (~10 years ago) I didn't order delivery at all. Honestly it's a huge pain. To call someone up and try and communicate an order to someone who probably…

I honestly don't know if I'm living in a different world than everyone else but I've been ordering food and taking cabs all my life and I've never had to deal with any friction. Like, you call the pizzeria, tell them what you want and then some college student delivers your stuff, and if you order for more than 20 bucks it doesn't cost you anything. Not even being facetious, but what problem do these apps solve? I al…

> taking cabs

It all depends on where you're hailing and where you're going to. Also on what you look like. Drivers don't like some locations and appearances.

Re: Doordash and Pizza Arbitrage

#185

I said this in another post about Grubhub but similarly to this article I really don't get it. Those apps are all 25%+ expensive than ordering take out directly with the restaurant, they screw the restaurants and all those delivery companies lose millions. Did everyone really become THAT lazy that driving 10 minutes to get your meal is that much trouble?

It's the opposite. People are so busy that they can't spend 10 minutes to get food.

Also the fact that they can afford the premiums in the first place implies that they're not lazy ;)

Re: Doordash and Pizza Arbitrage

#186
post #16

Lose a few 100 million today for a monopoly next year. I make the assumption here that these delivery services are intent on dominating the search results so that independent restaurants are not able to compete. They are forced into using the services, or rather having a large majority of other orders coming from these services.

The problem is all these businesses (ride share, food delivery), have extremely low margins and the tech to spin up a competitor is extremely cheap and commodity. Thus the “monopoly” you allegedly get later is deeply unsustainable at the profit level and scale required to recoup losses on any timescale that would work for investors, assuming you can even hold onto it in the face of constant reemergence of competitors…

How about public transport? It makes a substantial difference that I can pull up the route suggestion and station timetable from my pocket always-on always-connected supercomputer to know to the minute when I need to start tieing my shoes to get where I'm going. You're basically arguing that adding telepathic conscioussness to a service provides less than zero value.

Re: Doordash and Pizza Arbitrage

#187

Keep reading the level of skullduggery these companies go through and keep saying to yourself "Tech is a meritocracy." Yeesh.

Merit for businesses is defined by consumer acceptance and consumers love these apps.

It's because the consumer experience is so subsidized. Consumers would also love an app that sends them $1.10 for every $1.00 they spend in it.

Re: Doordash and Pizza Arbitrage

#188
post #166

Wow, that was great. And honestly good on them for profit-taking on this arbitrage. The author likes to pin this on zero-interest rates ("ZIRP") and that certainly explains why the system is awash with cash but I'd say he's missing a key point here. When I moved to NYC (~10 years ago) I didn't order delivery at all. Honestly it's a huge pain. To call someone up and try and communicate an order to someone who probably…

I honestly don't know if I'm living in a different world than everyone else but I've been ordering food and taking cabs all my life and I've never had to deal with any friction. Like, you call the pizzeria, tell them what you want and then some college student delivers your stuff, and if you order for more than 20 bucks it doesn't cost you anything. Not even being facetious, but what problem do these apps solve? I al…

"Not having to talk to someone" is generally a perk for introverts.

Re: Doordash and Pizza Arbitrage

#189

I don't understand why doordash, uber eats, deliveroo, and similar business are starting to exist. Restaurants have been running successful delivery operations independently for ages. And there are many software offerings to help businesses get set up with delivering food. Why do we need a centralized on? Is it just the benefit of being able to browse in one app/website everything available for be delivered to you?

One reason I haven't seen mentioned, maybe because it's not the case in America, but in Australia before Uber Eats your options for takeaway were somewhat limited. You could have all the Italian/Chinese/Indian you wanted delivered, but if you wanted a burger, or Mexican, or French food it was probably 50/50 there'd be anyone around who delivered. Uber Eats vastly expanded the range of cuisines available, if they simu…

It’s why I do order on DoorDash too. My local Indian place doesn’t do delivery, neither does my local deli, and my favorite pizza place won’t deliver to my address.

I’m more than happy to cut out the middleman and order direct but they turned me down when I offered to pay more to deliver to my address. I’m literally 50 ft outside their posted delivery area.

Re: Doordash and Pizza Arbitrage

#190
> How did we get to a place where billions of dollars are exchanged in millions of business transactions but there are no winners?

Simple. Capitalism is broken.

In order for capitalism to work, there has to be a meaningful profit/loss incentive. People who are doing the work must get rewarded if the work is done well and penalized if the work is done poorly.

We already started moving away from this many years ago with the growth of large corporations. When was the last time that you at your "capitalist" firm were aware of revenue and costs for the things you were working on in a more-than-superficial way? When was the last time you saw someone make a buy-vs.-build decision based on the actual numerical cost of the employees needed to run the project and not just handwaving? (When was the last time you even knew what the cost of the employees on your team was, given the widespread taboos about compensation?) When was the last time that someone who said "I saved the company X million dollars" got some proportion of those X million dollars? When was the last time that someone who needlessly made the company spend X million dollars in the first place paid for it?

The function of a big company is to abstract away the cold, unfeeling invisible hand of the market and protect people/groups who make unprofitable decisions. This is actually totally fine and good in the short term - nobody makes consistently good decisions, and insurance is a thing for a reason. You want people to take bigger risks on behalf of the company than they're willing to subsidize with their own paychecks, which is why individual artisans and professionals team up to form a company in the first place. But it's grown past that. As the article points out, some regional director somewhere is able to convince other people at the company that their work is profitable - with no hard link to whether the work is, in fact, profitable. And that scenario is entirely plausible for all of us; it's not specific to this one company in any way. If you're in the unlucky position where both you want to draw good charts and everyone around you wants to see good charts, there's no real way to figure out if you're wrong unless the company as a whole is dying, and there might be a host of reasons why it's not dying that have nothing to do with your decision-making.

And now venture "capitalists" have decided that this model needs to scale out from protecting teams to protecting entire companies. You can run a business for years without even attempting to make a profit and get acquired based on the potential of the business. No more messy realities of the market determining whether you are in fact profitable or not - what matters is whether you look profitable. And, again, this is genuinely good at small scale, because it allows new ventures to ignore bumps and potholes that would otherwise have ended a small company. But if you scale it up, it also allows new ventures to ignore driving straight off a cliff.

I expect capitalism to work very well if implemented right. But I don't know how we go from where we are today to actual, functioning capitalism.

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