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How Apocalyptic Is Now?

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91–98 of 98 posts

Re: How Apocalyptic Is Now?

#91
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>And idiots will continue parroting this exact line as billions of people are dying. Exactly the same way idiots are protesting social distancing, lockdowns, and mask wearing in US right now There is no purpose to have a discussion when your thinking is so narrowly black and white. Your worldview doesn't seem to allow for the shades of grey necessitated by uncertainty. If all skepticism was met with the same belittli…

>There is no purpose to have a discussion when your thinking is so narrowly black and white. Your worldview doesn't seem to allow for the shades of grey necessitated by uncertainty. There are no shades of gray here. We're weighing human extinction against an economic system here. These things are not comparable. The whole point of an economy is to facilitate human existence. >If all skepticism was met with the same b…

>There are no shades of gray here. We're weighing human extinction against an economic system here. These things are not comparable. The whole point of an economy is to facilitate human existence.

Again, you don't seem to have any actual experience with risk assessment, because all risk assessment is grey. You weigh probability of outcomes and cost of outcomes and come up with a value. That's literally my point, that the you are at one end of a high dimensional extreme. That's what this entire argument boils down to.

Science is a high-d gradient descent search. You can easily get stuck chasing a local optimum, and bias and dogma like the kind that blinds your judgement can send groups of scientists in the wrong direction and, more importantly, keep them there for decades. Your exploration constant is far too low if you respond with such blind hostility to anyone with criticism. You're hindering progress and when your policy is guided by such one sidedness, that's dangerous. This doesn't just apply to climate science. We couldn't even get the nutritional pyramid right, and climate science is hard for the same reasons - non-expert mental, data and model driven and only verifiable in hindsight.

Not all scientific fields are equally rigorous. An appeal to a climatologist on the subject of climate is far weaker than an appeal to a physicist on the subject of physics because of the nature of the fields. Climate science by nature is extremely uncertain, i.e. you search the high-d space with less gradient information, and personal/institutional biases can converge to fill in those gaps nicely enough to have you trapped in a local minimum.

Re: How Apocalyptic Is Now?

#92
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Should Djenghis Khan and his successors not also be on that list?

Genghis and his descendants certainly conquered a huge area, but the empire quickly broke apart after Möngke (Genghis' successor) died, into the Ilkhanate, Yuan dynasty, Chagatai Khanate, and Golden Horde. Most of these didn't last more than a century, but more relevantly, the Mongols weren't particularly interested in spreading their culture and largely kept their language a private matter. Subsequently Mongolian (t…

Just a minor clarification/correction: Möngke wasn’t the direct successor to Genghis: there were two other leaders in between.

Re: How Apocalyptic Is Now?

#93
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well meaning overbearing incompetency seems little better. Has there been a more thorough refutation of the promised land of technocrats than these past couple months?

Technocrats? Business leaders are selected at random by our economy, or are born wealthy. This has been proven over and over in studies. Your flowery language is designed so that you feel smart. The fact that you started the first sentence with 'overbearing incompetency' and then in the second sentence said 'technocrat' shows the disorganization in language, and demands that we define what a technocrat is. > Technocr…

You are arguing with people with an ideology that doesn't allow them to accept anything other than government policies and actions are malign and counter productive. That's why they won't accept that lock downs and social distancing policies have been effective. Because whatever the government does it's the wrong thing.

These people are fools and you cannot reason with them.

Re: How Apocalyptic Is Now?

#94
post #2

Always amuses me how the apocalypse of Inidgenous Americans never seems to make the cut...

Winners don't talk about the people they murdered to win. Same thing about Australia, Canada and less so New Zealand. It is also hilarious that the USSR is the only country apart from Japan to successfully industrialize and avoid a colonial genocide from a Western power. If you could pick a place to live being a Russian in Moscow 1919 would give you a much better chance of surviving compared to being an Indian in Man…

> the USSR is the only country apart from Japan to successfully industrialize and avoid a colonial genocide from a Western power.

Thailand was never a colony either. Besides, USSR was not a country and formed after the colonial heydays.

Re: How Apocalyptic Is Now?

#95

When our immune system is over-fit to the wrong kind of thing, we call that an allergy. People who have been raised with animals or who have had to fight off parasites tend to have less allergies. I think this idea holds for our society; our societal immune system needs to be tested too, otherwise we attack ourselves (identity politics, the culture wars...) So I disagree with the author, I think we will be better off…

Yeah once we're done fighting off propaganda and authoritarianism during a pandemic we'll maybe see a rise in civic understanding and critical thinking, but also hundreds of thousands of dead people because of one nation's inability to be honest.

Re: How Apocalyptic Is Now?

#96
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There is no purpose to have a discussion when your thinking is so narrowly black and white. Your worldview doesn't seem to allow for the shades of grey necessitated by uncertainty. There are no shades of gray here. We're weighing human extinction against an economic system here. These things are not comparable. The whole point of an economy is to facilitate human existence. >If all skepticism was met with the same b…

>There are no shades of gray here. We're weighing human extinction against an economic system here. These things are not comparable. The whole point of an economy is to facilitate human existence. Again, you don't seem to have any actual experience with risk assessment, because all risk assessment is grey. You weigh probability of outcomes and cost of outcomes and come up with a value. That's literally my point, that…

>again, you don't seem to have any actual experience with risk assessment, because all risk assessment is grey.

There is no meaningful comparison between the risk of human extinction with having to transition off fossil fuel economy. This is what this entire argument boils down to. On one hand, you have the end of civilization and possibly end of human existence, and on the other you have some temporary inconvenience. These are fundamentally not comparable.

>Science is a high-d gradient descent search. You can easily get stuck chasing a local optimum, and bias and dogma like the kind that blinds your judgement can send groups of scientists in the wrong direction and, more importantly, keep them there for decades.

You're creating a false equivalence between the two possibilities. All the best available science tells us this is happening. There is absolutely no scientific basis to doubt that this is happening.

So, yes there may be a chance that all our accumulated decades of observation and models are wrong, but it's far more likely that is not the case. Our observations are either matching or outpacing what the models predict. You just keep parroting the same nonsense over and over like a broken record. It's dangerous nonsense, and you don't seem to understand what's at stake here.

Re: How Apocalyptic Is Now?

#97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They’ll resist the lockdown again until people start dying in large numbers and hospitals fill up and then it will be too late.

It's evident by this point that you can avoid total lockdowns and still control infections. Permanent lockdown is simply not a realistic solution, so I expect we'll all start tending towards the Swedish model, regardless of how much gnashing of teeth and fiery twitter rhetoric such decisions will generate. As for the apocalyptic atmosphere - it doesn't seem possible to really predict how bad/good things will get. How…

Sweden has by far the highest per capita death rate of its neighbors. I don’t think they’ll be emulating them.

Re: How Apocalyptic Is Now?

#98
post #71

I am sorry but this is a ridiculous thesis. This will be over eventually, either by developing a vaccine or by mutation into a more benign strain. Nobody in their right mind will practice social distancing just because they are used to it. No system that goes against basic human drives is stable. Right now there is a risk, benefit balance but once that risk is gone, what exactly will balance this? Laws? They are alre…

>They are already in conflict with the constitution...

PATRIOT Act would like a word.

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