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Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap

rameznaam.com

211–220 of 223 posts

Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap

#211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So are you saying that we should abandon renewables, and stick with fossil fuels until a truly green energy technology is invented, sometime in the future? And if that is not what you are saying, then what exactly do you think we should be doing today?

Cut down on the energy we expend, minimize the amounts of materials we use, focus on technology that consumes less energy rather than just attempting to make more of it in marginally less dirty fashion and so on. Instead of promoting electrical cars which consume vast amounts of materials and still run on a dirty energy mix cut down on the car reliance altogether, for a trivial example.

>Instead of promoting electrical cars which consume vast amounts of materials and still run on a dirty energy mix >cut down on the car reliance altogether, for a trivial example.

I see, so you think people should abandon autos and instead use buses that run on fossil fuels, or trains that run on electricity made from fossil fuels. Forever. And of course let's not forget the fossil fuel that will be used in constructing all those new buses and trains. So it seem like you want us to stay on fossil fuels.

And if that is not your plan, then what is?

Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap

#212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This sounds interesting but I don't really understand, could you elaborate?

1 biscuit = 85 cal 1000m rowing = 60 cal [1] English Channel = 35km (narrowest point) 35 * 60 / 85 = 24.7 biscuits! [1] https://darkhorserowing.com/how-to-translate-calories-to-met...

Ah, got it. That's cool, thanks for sharing!

Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap

#213

Power markets are more complicated than most people realize. One thing to note is that solar power can be cheaper than gas, but still not be economic. The fact of the matter is that an intermittent kWh is not as valuable as an on-demand reliable kWh to a utility who's number 1 priority is reliability. Even as solar is acquired at lower and lower prices, if evening power is generated by expensive and inefficient gas t…

Does cheaper prices open up some less efficient ways of storage?

I'm still hoping for this one, just because it's so epic: the giant rock-piston gravity storage: https://www.heindl-energy.com/

Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most of the people who focus on phase 2 basically want us to stay on fossil fuels forever, but they don't want to come out and say it. How do you know this? Serious question.

Because if you leave out the first and third phases, then there is no reason to develop renewables and get off of fossil fuels. And if that was not what they thought, they should say it, but they don't. But let me ask you the question, what is your position on global climate change and renewables? Do you believe global climate change is real, caused at least considerably by human fossil fuel emissions and dangerous?…

> And if that was not what they thought...

Oh, so you do realize you are speculating about what other people think then? It wasn't clear in your prior comment.

> But let me ask you the question, what is your position on global climate change and renewables?

My position is that until we realize that the problem preventing us from moving forward is not a lack of climate science, but rather a lack of psychological/neurological science, and a lack of widespread knowledge of, and acceptance of, that which we already know...including, or maybe even especially, among the intellectually gifted, like many people right here on HN.

Because of this, I consider the rest of your comment is moot. Doesn't matter if it's right or wrong, it makes no difference. We have the same conversations here day after day, year after year, with the same self-important tones of intellectual and moral superiority. And for what? Does anything ever change? You can have a ten phase analysis and it doesn't mean shit at the end of the day if you can't get people to agree on a direction to move in.

If you cared about the environment as much as you think you do, you'd be willing to listen to what I'm saying. And if you were willing to listen to what I'm saying, you'd be the first person on HN. But I suspect, like all the others, you won't...because this is the nature of an uncontrolled Default Mode Network.

Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap

#215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because if you leave out the first and third phases, then there is no reason to develop renewables and get off of fossil fuels. And if that was not what they thought, they should say it, but they don't. But let me ask you the question, what is your position on global climate change and renewables? Do you believe global climate change is real, caused at least considerably by human fossil fuel emissions and dangerous?…

> And if that was not what they thought... Oh, so you do realize you are speculating about what other people think then? It wasn't clear in your prior comment. > But let me ask you the question, what is your position on global climate change and renewables? My position is that until we realize that the problem preventing us from moving forward is not a lack of climate science, but rather a lack of psychological/neuro…

No, you are absolutely wrong that things never change. The survey data shows that the public has been steadily increasing its acceptance of the realities of global climate change and what needs to be done about it. That is true even among Republicans.

Instead of lecturing me about the psychological/neurological science (which I do know a fair amount about, though I am sure not as much as you do about the neurological side), you should be looking at how it is that conventional arguments for realities sometimes works. Also, the problem with focusing on first getting people to accept what the psychological and neurological science is that people's psychology and neurology will cause them to reject the scientific truths about the psychology and neurology.

As far as having a strong view on what other people are thinking, everyone does that all the time, including you. For instance, when someone tells you they believe something, you make a judgement as to whether or not they are telling the truth. You do it because you are not crazy.

The reason I think what I do in this case is I have been watching this debate over the years. Traditionally people who disbelieved in global climate change would present arguments it is not occuring (or not dangerous).In the last year or so, this has pretty much stopped, at least in forums like HN, and instead people have presented the argument that renewables are bad for the environment (which is in fact not true).

I assume the reason for this change is that the people who disbelieve in global climate change have realized they can't win the battle arguing directly and have switched to an indirect approach. In fact, there is an name for this, it's called "concern trolling" Furthermore I think it is clear there is an small army of trollers on this subject paid for by business or ideological interests, so I assume this switch in tactics was decided by them. Though of course some people who are not paid trollers might also follow along.

Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap

#216
post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>...For example, use solar power during the day to pump fluid from a lower reservoir into a higher reservoir, and then harness the energy of the water flowing from the higher reservoir into the lower reservoir through turbines. Trying to rely only on intermittent power sources has huge storage requirements due to weather along with daily/seasonal variation. If grid energy storage was a simple problem it would have be…

> If grid energy storage was a simple problem it would have been done decades ago. Except storage is much less useful in the old paradigm, so the motivation wasn't there. Going forward, prices will swing wildly, so storage will be more valuable.

>Except storage is much less useful in the old paradigm,

Plentiful storage would obviously have been very useful over the last several decades. There is a large variation in daily electrical usage (particularly in summer months):

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42915

There is also the need for extra capacity in the system because of planned and unplanned maintenance.

>...Going forward, prices will swing wildly, so storage will be more valuable.

Well yes, our economy is based on having reliable power and it would be impossible to have anywhere near the reliable power relying on intermittent power sources without a huge amount of storage. The problem is that contrary to what advocates claim, people have been looking at grid energy storage for decades and it isn't as simple as they claim.

As Bill Gates said in an interview: "…They have this statement that the cost of solar photovoltaic is the same as hydrocarbon’s. And that’s one of those misleadingly meaningless statements. What they mean is that at noon in Arizona, the cost of that kilowatt-hour is the same as a hydrocarbon kilowatt-hour. But it doesn’t come at night, it doesn’t come after the sun hasn’t shone, so the fact that in that one moment you reach parity, so what? The reading public, when they see things like that, they underestimate how hard this thing is. So false solutions like divestment or “Oh, it’s easy to do” hurt our ability to fix the problems. Distinguishing a real solution from a false solution is actually very complicated."

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/11/we-need...

Gates is investing in 4th gen nuclear and energy storage companies so he is putting his money where his mouth is.

Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And if that was not what they thought... Oh, so you do realize you are speculating about what other people think then? It wasn't clear in your prior comment. > But let me ask you the question, what is your position on global climate change and renewables? My position is that until we realize that the problem preventing us from moving forward is not a lack of climate science, but rather a lack of psychological/neuro…

No, you are absolutely wrong that things never change. The survey data shows that the public has been steadily increasing its acceptance of the realities of global climate change and what needs to be done about it. That is true even among Republicans. Instead of lecturing me about the psychological/neurological science (which I do know a fair amount about, though I am sure not as much as you do about the neurological…

> No, you are absolutely wrong that things never change.

Actually, I'm not "absolutely wrong". I asked a question: "Does anything ever change?"

> The survey data shows that the public has been steadily increasing its acceptance of the realities of global climate change and what needs to be done about it.

Do surveys control actions and government policy, and if so, to what degree?

> ...you should be looking at how it is that conventional arguments for realities sometimes works

Oh I do, all the time. As far as I can tell, the conventional arguments being used don't work very well, especially when it comes to producing significant changes in net(!) outcome.

> Also, the problem with focusing on first getting people to accept what the psychological and neurological science is that people's psychology and neurology will(!) cause them to reject the scientific truths about the psychology and neurology.

Is that so. Upon what is this prediction of the future based? A popular meme, or actual conclusive evidence, that is directly related to psychological and neurological science, and has demonstrable predictive power?

> As far as having a strong view on what other people are thinking, everyone does that all the time, including you. For instance, when someone tells you they believe something, you make a judgement as to whether or not they are telling the truth. You do it because you are not crazy.

What you've written here is true. But the difference between myself and most other people, at least based on my observations, seems to be that I take a consciously deliberate, disciplined approach to distinguishing between "facts" and heuristic predictions - both when thinking, and when speaking/writing (broadcasting ideas into the minds of other people).

> Traditionally people who disbelieved in global climate change would present arguments it is not occurring (or not dangerous). In the last year or so, this has pretty much stopped, at least in forums like HN, and instead people have presented the argument that renewables are bad for the environment (which is in fact not true).

Yes, some people have done that ("presented the argument...") I imagine. Some people have done other things as well. Lots of things occur in the world. Why they occur, and what conclusions an individual should draw (and rebroadcast, often as "fact") from the subsets of occurrences that he is aware of is where it gets complicated.

Biomass energy (aka: wood) is renewable. Do you not consider burning wood to be bad for the environment, at the very least in the sense that it gaining a higher share in clever statistical reporting can give the general public a false sense of security?

> I assume the reason for this change is that the people who disbelieve in global climate change have realized they can't win the battle arguing directly and have switched to an indirect approach.

Is this a safe assumption? Is the assumption correct? How would you know?

Is it possible that the change in your observations of beliefs isn't directly proportional to the actual underlying existence of beliefs? For example, might censorship play a role in this? Have there been any instances where individuals who don't hold the proper beliefs are banned or rate-limited on popular forums? The answer to this is yes, because I have been the "victim" of this many times. So now the question is: to what degree is this happening? How would we even know? One can certainly form conclusions based on guessing, as you have done above, but is your guess correct?

And banning is just one possible alternate cause. What if people got tired of the increasingly ideological and authoritarian culture in mainstream forums and have voted with their feet, going somewhere else entirely where there is either less ideology, or an ideology that is more to their liking? If this is what is happening (and it is, but to an unknown degree), now people who like to opine about the behaviors and inner thoughts of others don't even have that raw material to work with anymore, because it is completely off your radar.

Furthermore, since you seem to have some expertise in psychology: do you ever consider the consequences of millions of people making (and broadcasting in the media, both social media, but also formal mainstream media) negative statements about the thoughts and behavior of groups of people? Do you ever consider how this affects the psyche of people who are denigrated on a daily basis, and how that may alter their future behavior, such as who they might vote for in an election?

Perhaps you "think" (heuristically predict) that we "shouldn't have to" worry about such things, or that this "isn't" a problem. But once again: upon what is that prediction based? And, is the prediction accurate? How would you know?

The human mind provides the holder a crystal clear, ultra high definition impression that they know what is going on in the world, but this impression is an elaborate illusion. That is a fact.

So instead of "lecturing" me that we are on the right course, no adjustments or deeper thinking required, I recommend you think a bit more deeply about what is going on here on planet Earth, because your religion's current assessment seems rather off the mark to me, and our lack of progress on climate change seems to confirm that fairly well.

Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap

#218
I thought the old lie with statistics trick of starting the Y axis above zero was debunked in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s etc. The blog name above the X axis and gray shading make it look like the costs are approaching zero.

Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap

#219
post #195

Making solar panels require massive amount of energy. If built in China, these panels are made with electricity from coal. They don't have a great C02 budget.

Today's solar panels are efficient enough that even if they are produced using electricity from coal, by the end of their life, they've reduced CO2 emissions by more than what the coal produced to manufacture them.

Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap

#220
post #2

nice application of the learning curve, a model taught in strategy and operations courses in business school. basically every model from around 2010 badly miscalculated the learning coefficient of the solar industry. apparently some forecasts are still badly calculating it.

I dont understand how you could continue apply learning curve , do we expect solar panel price to fall forever? And labour as well as land cost to fall ?

Some of those are fixed. Even if Labour and Solar are free, you will still have to paid for land. In a way I think this is quit optimistic projection of solar.

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