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How Apocalyptic Is Now?

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81–90 of 98 posts

Re: How Apocalyptic Is Now?

#81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a diffeerence between modes of threat. A visible threat vs. an invisible one, an undirected threat vs. a directed one. Some years ago I realised that there are in fact two uses of the term "invisible* in Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations . Among oths I find the significance of the more well-known one to be greatly overstated. But the other seems notable on several counts: "Regularity, order, and prompt obedienc…

I don't disagree with any of that. But I also don't see what it has to do with my point that our response to any threat is often a matter of policy choices, rather than something predestined. (and of course, sometimes it isn't). You can see this even with the case of sars-cov-2, where different policy decisions about the response have contributed to (or resulted in?) different impacts around the world. I imagine we w…

Sure. As it happens, that's not the element I was reponding to.

But to address it: There's a strong argument tp be made that how soccieties choose to address their challenges has a major impact on outcomes. That's the major premise and subtitle of Jared Diamond's Collapse8. Others disagree seeing that outcome as inevitable (Tainter, on whom aDiamond draws extensively).

A more interesting approach tries to understand what the dynamics at play are. William Ophuls, though decidedly pessimistic, holds out hope and draws no final conclusions, though he explores the question(s) in detail, particularly in Plato's Revenge, though also in earlier works, notably Ecology and the politics of scarcity.

Why* certain political responses (including thatre, denial, scapegoating, and distraction) are frequently recurrent can prove illuminating.

Re: How Apocalyptic Is Now?

#82
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The big difference here is that the risk of climate scientists being right is that billions of people die. Meanwhile, all the observed evidence either fits the models or is rapidly outpacing the predictions made by the models. We're not longer talking about hypotheticals here, we're observing these events happening right now. If you look through the links in my above comment you'll see that a lot of them are talking…

>The big difference here is that the risk of climate scientists being right is that billions of people die. That's literally an absolute worst case prediction. You cannot guide policy exclusively with worst case predictions. >We're not longer talking about hypotheticals here, we're observing these events happening right now No, we're seeing warming and minor sea level rise right now - and even this is less certain th…

When the worst case scenario is the end of human civilization we absolutely should drive policy to avoid that. It's absolutely surreal that anybody would argue otherwise.

>No, we're seeing warming and minor sea level rise right now

Read the links I provided earlier. These are not minor events. You're just parroting dangerous nonsense here.

>That's why nothing, literally nothing that we've observed to date, can significantly reduce the uncertainty regarding doomsday predictions.

And idiots will continue parroting this exact line as billions of people are dying. Exactly the same way idiots are protesting social distancing, lockdowns, and mask wearing in US right now. It's the same pattern with the same dangerous fools putting the rest of humanity at risk.

Re: How Apocalyptic Is Now?

#83
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1258931279317405696 and there are more tweets on that if you scroll the feed.

I fund it fascinating that in "developed" or "fully western" countries it is the youth that is disregarding the lockdown measures. In Kosovo/Albania it is the precise opposite. An acquaintance of mine in China told me that it is the genX and older generation there too that seems to not understand the gravity. How come this big difference?

Maybe older generations spend less time reading internet hysteria (or news or whatever you'd like to call it)?

Re: How Apocalyptic Is Now?

#84
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are exalting ignorance. That's what actually needs to stop.

Well meaning overbearing incompetency seems little better. Has there been a more thorough refutation of the promised land of technocrats than these past couple months?

Technocrats? Business leaders are selected at random by our economy, or are born wealthy. This has been proven over and over in studies.

Your flowery language is designed so that you feel smart. The fact that you started the first sentence with 'overbearing incompetency' and then in the second sentence said 'technocrat' shows the disorganization in language, and demands that we define what a technocrat is.

> Technocracy is an ideological system of governance in which decision-makers are selected on the basis of their expertise in a given area of responsibility, particularly with regard to scientific or technical knowledge.

How tiresome.

Re: How Apocalyptic Is Now?

#85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do critics of government hold other prediction "markets" to the same standards? People predict sportsball outcomes. A much smaller problem domain, with far more historical data, insane audience engagement (interest), and ample expertise. Are sportsball predictions qualitatively better than pandemic predictions?

>Do critics of government hold other prediction "markets" to the same standards? You realize that modern economics is basically divination for the same reason that climate science is uncertain? Structurally the two sciences are actually similar in critical points, namely that the domains are non experimental and purely model driven. Yes, you should be extremely sceptical of any economist who tells you that he's certa…

Apologies; I didn't cleanly separate my intended question from my own navel gazing.

"... global and nearly universal failure of these same institutions to properly prepare for and handle covid..."

What should have happened?

How do we apply those lessons learned?

Re: How Apocalyptic Is Now?

#86

Australia, 98 deaths and 16 people in ICU. Entire economy destroyed. Either we will make money meaningless by printing it out of thin air or coming decades will witness crushing tax. 5 million people unemployed out of population of 22 million. Someone fucked up.

I read something like this and I think, "this person is a psychopath". So order to "save" the economy (which is a social construct designed to serve the people) you would happily kill a family member? How many would you sacrifice before it was too much?

Re: How Apocalyptic Is Now?

#87
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The big difference here is that the risk of climate scientists being right is that billions of people die. That's literally an absolute worst case prediction. You cannot guide policy exclusively with worst case predictions. >We're not longer talking about hypotheticals here, we're observing these events happening right now No, we're seeing warming and minor sea level rise right now - and even this is less certain th…

When the worst case scenario is the end of human civilization we absolutely should drive policy to avoid that. It's absolutely surreal that anybody would argue otherwise. >No, we're seeing warming and minor sea level rise right now Read the links I provided earlier. These are not minor events. You're just parroting dangerous nonsense here. >That's why nothing, literally nothing that we've observed to date, can signif…

>And idiots will continue parroting this exact line as billions of people are dying. Exactly the same way idiots are protesting social distancing, lockdowns, and mask wearing in US right now

There is no purpose to have a discussion when your thinking is so narrowly black and white. Your worldview doesn't seem to allow for the shades of grey necessitated by uncertainty.

If all skepticism was met with the same belittling as climate science, we'd still be stuck in the dark ages. Don't think it's possible for an institution of sciences to be very wrong for a very long time about a very important topic? Look at the forces that caused us to fruitlessly pursue the amyloid plaque hypothesis for decades.

Consensus has a strong normalizing effect, but that does not necessarily mean that a given consensus is correct.

Anyway I'm being rate limited by sanctimonious downvoters so this conversation is effectively over.

Edit: by the way, with respect to the lockdown controversy, did you hear about the atrocious academic modeling code that informed the lockdown policy? A single 15k line C file which, among other things, does not seed random number generation and cannot be reproduced. So bad that I just found there's an entire website dedicated to a teardown[0]! But I'm an "idiot" for showing skepticism. Do you think climate modeling code is any better? Have you worked with academic code? I have. It's universally bad. But, again, I'm an "idiot" for expressing any degree of skepticism.

0. https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/

Re: How Apocalyptic Is Now?

#88
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When the worst case scenario is the end of human civilization we absolutely should drive policy to avoid that. It's absolutely surreal that anybody would argue otherwise. >No, we're seeing warming and minor sea level rise right now Read the links I provided earlier. These are not minor events. You're just parroting dangerous nonsense here. >That's why nothing, literally nothing that we've observed to date, can signif…

>And idiots will continue parroting this exact line as billions of people are dying. Exactly the same way idiots are protesting social distancing, lockdowns, and mask wearing in US right now There is no purpose to have a discussion when your thinking is so narrowly black and white. Your worldview doesn't seem to allow for the shades of grey necessitated by uncertainty. If all skepticism was met with the same belittli…

>There is no purpose to have a discussion when your thinking is so narrowly black and white. Your worldview doesn't seem to allow for the shades of grey necessitated by uncertainty.

There are no shades of gray here. We're weighing human extinction against an economic system here. These things are not comparable. The whole point of an economy is to facilitate human existence.

>If all skepticism was met with the same belittling as climate science, we'd still be stuck in the dark ages.

Your skepticism is not rooted in facts and evidence, but rather has an ideological basis. When all the experts in the field unanimously say we should be dealing with global warming, that's what we should be doing. Anybody who is not an actual climatologist needs to get the fuck out of the way.

>Don't think it's possible for an institution of sciences to be very wrong for a very long time about a very important topic?

Sure, it's possible, but only a fool would gamble the fate of humanity on that. The stakes are simply too high here. There are also no actual downsides to addressing climate change. Imagine the horror of having a cleaner environment and sustainable industry creating millions of new jobs and advancing our technology and science.

>Anyway I'm being rate limited by sanctimonious downvoters so this conversation is effectively over.

It's good to see that majority of people see the dangerous absurdity you promote for what it is.

>by the way, with respect to the lockdown controversy, did you hear about the atrocious academic modeling code that informed the lockdown policy?

And just like with climate change you ignore the actual facts all around you. 80,000 people died in US while 0 people died in Vietnam. Chew on that for a while next time you claim that following scientific consensus is the wrong thing to do.

Re: How Apocalyptic Is Now?

#89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Winners don't talk about the people they murdered to win. Same thing about Australia, Canada and less so New Zealand. It is also hilarious that the USSR is the only country apart from Japan to successfully industrialize and avoid a colonial genocide from a Western power. If you could pick a place to live being a Russian in Moscow 1919 would give you a much better chance of surviving compared to being an Indian in Man…

Russia was a Western power as far as Central Asia and the Caucasus were concerned

If having an empire is the definition of being Western than you need to include the Ottomans too. At which point the word means nothing.

Re: How Apocalyptic Is Now?

#90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Winners don't talk about the people they murdered to win. Same thing about Australia, Canada and less so New Zealand. It is also hilarious that the USSR is the only country apart from Japan to successfully industrialize and avoid a colonial genocide from a Western power. If you could pick a place to live being a Russian in Moscow 1919 would give you a much better chance of surviving compared to being an Indian in Man…

Please study the actual history of the USSR-- there were multiple genocides of different religions and ethnic groups. Most notable were the pogroms and the death of millions in the Ukraine: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691152387/st...

Interesting how all the groups who had genocide perpetrated against them somehow ended up with a double population than when they were conquered with, meanwhile Ireland still has a smaller population than they had in 1800.
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