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US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei

cnbc.com

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Re: US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei

#71

Post by krapp »

corebit wrote: post #52
krapp wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Trump really has to be congratulated for being the first President to actually do something about the growth in strategic strength of the absolutely terrifying regime that currently controls China He might deserve congratulations if his strategies made sense, but they seem more likely to hurt the US than China in the long run.

There are no sure things. We don't like the current situation because its risky. But no risk no reward. If we wanted less risk our only option was to have done it way earlier - under Bush 1 or Clinton.

I'm fine with risks, so long as they're calculated from a position of expertise. I don't trust Trump to take smart risks, given his business history, narcissism and well documented disdain for expert advice. Someone who ignores intelligence briefings because he thinks he's too smart to need them shouldn't be acting like a maverick on the world stage.

Simply doing something, anything, for the sake of having something be done is even worse than the status quo.

Re: US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei

#72

Post by LegitShady »

0xfaded wrote: post #8
Udik wrote: post #2

This is nothing else than the US panicking over losing their technological and economic supremacy, and using brute force to damage a competitor. Disgusting and very dangerous for the whole world.

I'd say it's an unnecessary dilution of national brand power. I know people who refuse to buy things directly from China, yet are perfectly happy buying the same items through a western distributer. That price delta is directly measurable brand equity that ends up as taxable money spent in western economies with no real value add. Pulling this crap only incentives China to develop their own silicon. Since the west ca…

>Pulling this crap only incentives China to develop their own silicon.

Operating under the assumption this isnt already a priority to them, which I would say is a big assumption.

You're looking at this as if it was in absence of the rest of the trade footings of the two countries.

The west is building stuff in this industry - semi conductors. The east is operating heavy industrial espionage to try and steal all the secrets of it so they can take it from the west.

I'm not sure why you think this trade war situation is indicative of the US not making things - its exactly a heavily US industry where China steals technology to leapfrog actual competition.

If China steals all your research you're going to have trouble affording coffee beans. If they steal your research and then open factories up you're going broke.

So the importance of producing is true, but its tied to the importance of protecting your advantages, national and otherwise.

Re: US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei

#73

Post by AsyncAwait »

jaywalk wrote: post #18
fallingfrog wrote: post #10

It’s pretty hilarious that the grounds for the block is that China will use the chips to spy on people, given that the United States is certainly doing that already.

Yeah, US spying and Chinese spying are totally the same and used for the same purposes. I don't like spying period, but to try and equate what the US does to what China does is simply ludicrous.

> to try and equate what the US does to what China does is simply ludicrous

This is such a West-centric viewpoint. The fact is that they're only only different in where they're the most horrible. China is worse on the domestic front and the U.S. bullies more on the foreign front. Then there's soft power, where Hollywood makes you think the U.S. actually cares about democracy and human rights, (while supporting the likes of Saudi Arabia at the same time), which are quite powerful tools of propaganda.

The 90% of civilians targeted by U.S. drones would probably strongly disagree with your assertion. Is just that there's not a strong voice speaking for them on TV, where's there's plenty on China.

Re: US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei

#74

Post by elmo2you »

Udik wrote: post #16
madengr wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They probably all use the software. Funny thing is that TSMC +10 nm is subject to these rules, but not the 7 nm as it uses under 13% USA technology. Yes, I think ASML will not sell them equipment.

So now you have EU companies that bought a product from US companies and are retroactively deprived of the ability to produce for their customers? Is this even legal?

That depends on a lot of things, including perspective. Things can be legal according to one set of rules, yet illegal under another set.

EU member states certainly could see this as illegal interference in their economies and a stretch of US jurisdiction. There is also a good chance that this goes counter to at least a few international trade agreements. Agreements the US still desperately needs for other things it wants to keep doing.

It appears a very short sighted policy, by people who probably don't give a shit about whatever damage they do long term. Once they are out of office, it is no longer their problem. If it made them richer, they won. It's the ordinary people that will likely pay a price for this at some point, but not them.

Re: US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei

#75

Post by sabas123 »

brennanpeterson wrote: post #21
adventured wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How many foreign companies actually use US Chipmaking equipment? In the semi industry, nearly all of them. You can hardly make anything in the semiconductor industry without using several of the major US companies. The US still dominates the semiconductor equipment industry. Of the six major players, half of them are US companies. > The $412bn global semiconductor industry rests on the shoulders of just six equipme…

Mostly true, but you could come pretty close with ASML, ASM, TEL,ebara, hitachi and a couple others (particularly the Korean companies) I don't think it is quite so widely understood that there are close seconds in every market. It is pretty easy to imagine ASML giving up on Intel, cutting HMI, and all the chipmakers going outside of Lam, Applied, and KLA for their next tools. The industry would be a bit disrupted bu…

Could you give a layman overview of how ASML is dependent on these companies and what the geo-political/econmic shifts would be?

Re: US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei

#76

Post by AsyncAwait »

isatty wrote: post #26
shmel wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It might feel different depending where you live. If one lives in Europe, I don't see why US or Chinese spying should be perceived differently.

Maybe because there are human rights in the US?

Not only doesn't apply to non-Americans, but sometimes it doesn't even apply to American citizens, (Chelsea Manning was tortured in a U.S. military prison).

Re: US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei

#77

Post by LegitShady »

asdf123wtf wrote: post #65
roenxi wrote: post #34

I doubt this will be my most popular comment on HN but Trump really has to be congratulated for being the first President to actually do something about the growth in strategic strength of the absolutely terrifying regime that currently controls China. I know the Obama administration made some noises but I don't recall them actually inconveniencing China in a serious way. To me this is all naked geopolitics, hardly f…

Obama was quietly working on the TPP. It or something like it would probably have been the better strategy to check Chinese power and put us on a path to decouple from them, while boosting friendly allies in their orbit. Trump pulled out of the deal and decided to do a trade war instead.

The TPP would simply have incentivized more manufacturing to leave the west for other asian countries.

You got a trade war because there was finally a US president willing to risk confrontation like the chinese are, who started calling out chinese practices like dumping steel in canada to kill the US steel industry.

A year ago people said trump was crazy for talking about chinese steel dumped in canada as a national security issue. Then you couldnt get n95 masks and the world realized things run out if you dont produce them and someone else makes them.

The trade war is a positive - the US-China relationship needs redefining. If you look at chinese influence campaings the chinese are well aware of US efforts to deal with orbitting allies and is pushing their own influence. Your ideas would have worked 15 years ago, maybe.

Re: US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei

#78

Post by jotm »

ilaksh wrote: post #57

What is it that is actually preventing this from escalating to a hot war? It feels like we are just waiting for China to manufacture enough warships and nukes or killer drones or AGI with spiking neural networks or whatever can give them an edge so that a real war can start. It's even a war in the comments section. I don't think it's safe. How do we really know it can't progress to some kind of overt military activit…

Nothing's preventing it from escalating to war. The national defense agencies in all countries probably have plans if that happens... I believe and really hope that an actual war won't happen. There's too much to lose, and little to gain.

A technological cold war will likely happen, Huawei and other Chinese companies will just continue R&D and manufacturing on their own. In a way, the US is letting go of whatever control they had left and making it easier for them to form their own alliances in this matter. It will just polarize the world more... again, as always.

Re: US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei

#79

Post by 9nGQluzmnq3M »

TMWNN wrote: post #58
predictmktegirl wrote: post #36

I think we should all keep something in mind before we go celebrate the end of globalization. If we go on a rampage pulling manufacturing and capital out of China while simultaneously blaming them for the pandemic, in a few years we’ll end up seeing a nation with a shattered economy, a pissed off populace, and the largest and most well supplied army on Earth. Rhetoric tends to devolve into a limited decision matrix w…

The United States has no obligation whatsoever to enrich China, especially at its own expense. Your argument is a half step up from "she was dressed like she was asking for it".

Trade is not a zero sum game, it enriches both parties.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage

Re: US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei

#80

Post by logicchains »

ilaksh wrote: post #57

What is it that is actually preventing this from escalating to a hot war? It feels like we are just waiting for China to manufacture enough warships and nukes or killer drones or AGI with spiking neural networks or whatever can give them an edge so that a real war can start. It's even a war in the comments section. I don't think it's safe. How do we really know it can't progress to some kind of overt military activit…

>What is it that is actually preventing this from escalating to a hot war?

The same thing that's always prevented nuclear-armed countries from going to war: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction

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