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TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

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Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#221

Post by kyllo »

crimsonalucard wrote: post #150
kyllo wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Politically yes, Taiwan is de facto independent, but economically they are deeply intertwined; although they have their own currency, stock exchange etc., a lot of major companies operating in China are under Taiwanese ownership (Foxconn and Pegatron for example) and the commerce between China and Taiwan is significant; China is Taiwan's largest trading partner at 30% of Taiwan's total trade.

Every country on earth is deeply intertwined with China from an economic perspective. Especially the US.

By contrast, China is the US' third largest trading partner (after Canada and Mexico) at 10% of US trade. Taiwan is much more intertwined with China economically. Which makes sense given the geographic proximity and linguistic and cultural ties.

Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#223

Post by lliamander »

gok wrote: post #202
lliamander wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No TSMC plants exist in America right now.

Actually, TSMC has operated a fab in Camas, Washington for many years.

Oh, interesting! Thanks for the correction.

Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#224

Post by ngcc_hk »

renw0rp wrote: post #205
YinLuck- wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>(For context, I see globalization as a means of maximizing profits, not about politics) Globalization is just a euphemism for hegemony. First it was the British Empire, then the American Empire.

And now is the Chinese turn?

To be honest the chinese even study its raise up and have a long tv series about it — war is inevitable. Hence the peaceful raise of china is the slogan. They know you do not. Nearly 20 years of sending in students, researchers, 1000 person scheme etc. They win if it is not Xi, you may not even know until too late.

Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#225

Post by kick »

remarkEon wrote: post #155
kick wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I appreciate the good-natured disagreement! Long-term independence and stability of Taiwan is necessary for TSMC to keep existing. It's in its best interest to keep existing. I'm pretty sure the government doesn't need to approve of this sort of thing; VIA got away with it. Further entangling itself with the US would be keeping itself for the most part in Taiwan. "We have drastically better tech than you, and your mi…

Good point, on the last part. But I think the likelihood of an actual invasion of Taiwan is extraordinarily low. There's terrain and weather reasons for why any land invasion would be telegraphed well ahead of time and would be a complete bloodbath for any invading force. What is quite possible imo is an air bombardment as an attempt to force the Taiwanese government into capitulation. This would obviously precipitat…

Oh, invasion was absolutely lazy shorthand in that case. Mostly agree with you on the front of "this isn't how we should think about and conceptualize this." And fully agree that US-ROC relations have been really interesting over their history.

Human capital creates a problem for Taiwan, because human capital is easy to obtain, and the US is really good at convincing the best and brightest of other countries to come to the land of the free, by coercion or just offers They Can't Refuse. This creates a kind of perverse incentive for certain pieces of the US government to hope the situation in Taiwan gets stickier, so they can offer a one-way ticket out of it for scientists they're interested in.

Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#226

Post by londons_explore »

marcell wrote: post #185
Lind5 wrote: post #64

Actually, this is true. The big question is what's going on behind the scenes. China has been busy building up its own supply chain after the U.S. closed off shipments of any U.S.-based R&D to Huawei last summer. It also has made statements that Taiwan is part of China since then, which has left the U.S. without an advanced-node fab. Intel is at least a node behind both Samsung and TSMC, and the U.S. has no trusted f…

> If China marches into Taiwan, the U.S. will be left with no advanced-node manufacturing and it will have lost the technology race Can you explain this? If China takes over Taiwan, couldn't the US just take over whatever TSMC plants exist in America?

Various DRM-like schemes can be used to make a chip useless without the software that goes with it.

If TSMC was concerned about the US taking over their factory, they could design lots of elements of the process to require a connection to HQ in Taiwan, and to stop working when that connection is broken.

When every piece of equipment has no working firmware, the factory is pretty much useless, and would probably take years to get running again.

Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#227

Post by lliamander »

marcell wrote: post #207
lliamander wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No TSMC plants exist in America right now.

I'm not really following the logic... GP said this (TSMC intending to build a factory in US) was bad for US, because China could march into Taiwan and cut off US ability to make chips. Wouldn't a TSMC plant in US be good? Since US would have the factory on its own soil? What am I missing?

My understanding of the GP is that the current situation with TSMC only in Taiwan is a disaster. So I think they are actually in agreement with you and I that this is (or could be) a good thing.

Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#228

Post by redis_mlc »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #129
redis_mlc wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I actually don't know as much as I should about the Falkland Islands War, other than the UK took a decent amount of losses surprisingly. Good summary, actually! :) Argentina and Britain lost about the same number of ships, with Britain having an edge on the air war. British troops marched into Port Stanley with dysentery from drinking bog water, but defeated the Argentine conscripts. Ignoring Argentine military and…

My analogy to the Falklands War was in it being a failing junta‘s Hail Mary, an attempt to detract from problems at home. Galtieri gambled Britain would ignore the provocation. He was wrong. He lost. And then he was deposed.

> it being a failing junta‘s Hail Mary

Oh, for a minute there, I thought you meant Thatcher. lol.

Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#229

Post by kick »

magicsmoke wrote: post #171
remarkEon wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good point, on the last part. But I think the likelihood of an actual invasion of Taiwan is extraordinarily low. There's terrain and weather reasons for why any land invasion would be telegraphed well ahead of time and would be a complete bloodbath for any invading force. What is quite possible imo is an air bombardment as an attempt to force the Taiwanese government into capitulation. This would obviously precipitat…

Agreed on the point that an amphibious invasion of Taiwan could quickly become more chaotic than the PRC wants. I think the PRC's strategy is probably to build up for a naval battle with the US Navy and use a victory to threaten a multi year blockade of Taiwan like the US did with Cuba. If China can secure naval dominance within the second island chain and a corridor across the Indian ocean to the Middle East and Afr…

I mostly agree with you (I mentioned elsewhere that "invasion of Taiwan" was just supposed to serve as shorthand), but I think you night be underestimating the US Navy and possibly overestimating the PLA.

Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#230

Post by bobthepanda »

fermienrico wrote: post #179
Lind5 wrote: post #64

Actually, this is true. The big question is what's going on behind the scenes. China has been busy building up its own supply chain after the U.S. closed off shipments of any U.S.-based R&D to Huawei last summer. It also has made statements that Taiwan is part of China since then, which has left the U.S. without an advanced-node fab. Intel is at least a node behind both Samsung and TSMC, and the U.S. has no trusted f…

China marching into Taiwan would be a losing move. Never mind the civil unrest, the entire world would bail out of China. Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand + India would be even more alerted than they are right now with HK situation. The narrative in these countries is quickly evolving. CCP is over playing their hand by engaging in asymetrical trade.

It's also worth pointing out that Taiwan is so densely populated and small that it would be hard to invade Taiwan without simultaneously destroying everything of value. It's a fools' errand.
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