With launch costs set to drop aggressively I wonder if space based solar becomes viable sooner than expected. Iirc the NASA estimate was something like $200-500/kg launch costs. I wonder if concentrated solar in the form of thin mirrors can change that.
Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap
111–120 of 223 posts
Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap
#112Earlier quoted context omitted.
Although I guess they "burn" their excess on-site, doesn't it make sense for solar panels to send power to a load at all times? If they didn't, wouldn't that unspent energy make the panels even hotter and shorten lifespan/reduce efficiency?
It doesn't make sense for them to be sending power to the grid if they earn negative dollars doing it. No, there's no cost to just not drawing power from the modules. They would become slightly hotter, but that's not a big deal.
I mean, if they're 20% efficient, then shunting the energy would mean they have 4/5ths the energy getting turned into heat, no?
Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap
#113Earlier quoted context omitted.
The general point made here is really interesting though - a large number of our appliances (domestic and small business) can easily be time-agnostic if built for it. It may take a decade or two to replace the fleet but boy, just think of the opportunities replacing every appliance globally presents - this is on the order of a new Tesla (the disruptive company) for each appliance. Scheduling exchanges, where your loc…
Actually lights consumes more than fridges in terms of residential electricity.
Modern lights barely consume anything. Are you thinking of old-fashioned incandescent lighting?
Improved efficiency is one of the things that allows us to have continued economic production despite reducing usage.
Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap
#114Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm wondering why landfills are insufficient? Are the linings not good enough?
Not processing old solar panel was deemed dangerous by the government and we are building a government facility to recycle and properly decontaminate them. The price to run the facility will be collected from the manufacturers. Same for Wind too. 81 tons of waste needs to be processed after 20 years of service of a 5MW wind turbine but operators and manufacturers does not take the price of disposal into account.
Sure but I'm asking about the technology. It seems odd that old solar panels couldn't somehow be safely buried without leaching.
Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap
#115Earlier quoted context omitted.
> the environmental costs in making the turbine have to be considered. Of course it is considered, and few short decades ago that was a valid counterargument. Not anymore - and not later, given the pace of development in efficiencies and breadth of applications.
The raw material costs of producing and manufacturing windturbines has not been significantly reduced. You still need mostly as much stuff now to make one as you needed years ago, and the same goes for the transport of everything that goes into the turbine, because the energy density of electrical sources isn't high enough to say, power a containership. You can't just wave away legitimate criticism by talking about "…
> The raw material costs of producing and manufacturing windturbines has not been significantly reduced.
Perhaps, but we're talking about environmental concerns, not directly economical or material.
> You still need mostly as much stuff now to make one as you needed years ago
Suppose.
> and the same goes for the transport of everything that goes into the turbine, because the energy density of electrical sources isn't high enough to say, power a containership.
No, you're wrong here. Majority of pollutions from transport come from cars, and those demonstrated significant improvement over decades. More, there is no physical law forbidding transport ships using green energy sources - be that electrical (yes, batteries), wind (sails) or something else (hydrogen? nuclear?). And in fact we do see more and more examples of transport which runs on green sources - even planes.
Yes, batteries have lower energy density than gas. But batteries have enough energy density to be usable, and their characteristics improve lately; that's good enough for practical purposes. Not to mention, of course, theoretical possibility.
Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap
#116Power markets are more complicated than most people realize. One thing to note is that solar power can be cheaper than gas, but still not be economic. The fact of the matter is that an intermittent kWh is not as valuable as an on-demand reliable kWh to a utility who's number 1 priority is reliability. Even as solar is acquired at lower and lower prices, if evening power is generated by expensive and inefficient gas t…
Intermittency and the unsuitability of grid storage batteries to compensate is heavily played up by the carbon industry. The future of low emissions energy production will be largely driven by overproduction and demand shifting, not banks of grid level batteries. This likely won't happen as soon in America, however, the economy is too tied in to fossil fuels and the appetite to upgrade the electric grid by utility co…
then by your own logic it would happen other places, it doesent.
Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap
#117With launch costs set to drop aggressively I wonder if space based solar becomes viable sooner than expected. Iirc the NASA estimate was something like $200-500/kg launch costs. I wonder if concentrated solar in the form of thin mirrors can change that.
Musk's most recent estimate of the eventual cost per kg on starship was 10 usd/kg. He may be considered an unreliable source at this point, however.
Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap
#118Earlier quoted context omitted.
Renewables are just a technology totally dependent on fossil fuels from birth to burial. The book by Charles Hall , Energy Return on Investment, opened my eyes to the true nature of renewables . Once fossil fuels are gone, renewables will soon follow.
The EROEI of renewables is good and getting better. There is nothing in their manufacture that would be impossible without fossil fuels.
Think hard about that; huge trucks for mining, huge trucks for transport, huge amount of energy to separate component minerals, the actual energy for manufacture of these renewables, up to this point I don't see renewables at any stage of this process. Diesel fueled trucks to deliver said renewable technologies to their place of use. Oh, their is one worker who drives a tesla ...... Oh at end of their life requires fossil fuels for dismantlement , fossil fuels to transport device to some recycling plant, fossil fuels for the energy to process this dead technology, oh there is one guy there that drives a tesla. I use to believe that renewables would help; but alas when you really look at this technology with a total suspension of bias you reach the same conclusion.
Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap
#119Earlier quoted context omitted.
Actually lights consumes more than fridges in terms of residential electricity.
Modern lights barely consume anything. Are you thinking of old-fashioned incandescent lighting? Improved efficiency is one of the things that allows us to have continued economic production despite reducing usage.
Nope, it’s from the statistics.
Let’s talk real. Compared to fluorescent lamp, LED comsumes half of energy. It’s not like they comsume nothing. Over 68% of sockets in American households already use LED in 2018 and 13% of energy was used in residential lighting in 2018. If 32% changes to LED it will lower the percentage to 11% which is still more than what we use to refrigerate.
Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap
#120Earlier quoted context omitted.
The EROEI of renewables is good and getting better. There is nothing in their manufacture that would be impossible without fossil fuels.
Think hard about that; huge trucks for mining, huge trucks for transport, huge amount of energy to separate component minerals, the actual energy for manufacture of these renewables, up to this point I don't see renewables at any stage of this process. Diesel fueled trucks to deliver said renewable technologies to their place of use. Oh, their is one worker who drives a tesla ...... Oh at end of their life requires f…
Nothing you listed there requires fossil fuels.
If you think those activities require fossil fuels, you are basically saying industrial society is impossible after fossil fuels run out.