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Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap

rameznaam.com

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Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap

#51

Post by andy_ppp »

_-david-_ wrote: post #40
Retric wrote: post #6

Another aspect of this is the cost of the physical solar cells have dropped low enough that other costs have become significant. This is pushing companies to increase efficiency which opens the door for other applications. A hypothetical cheap ~30% efficient solar panel could add something like 40 miles of range per day to a car in ideal conditions. That starts to look actually useful vs a simple gimmick.

>A hypothetical cheap ~30% efficient solar panel could add something like 40 miles of range per day to a car in ideal conditions. Does this take into consideration the increased weight of the solar panel and any additional equipment?

Could it not be built into the roof directly! This is a great idea as presumably people who don’t use their car a lot need not leave it charging permanently and if you run out of battery you can just wait (if it’s sunny enough).

Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap

#52

Post by rootusrootus »

TheGrim-888 wrote: post #47
Retric wrote: post #6

Another aspect of this is the cost of the physical solar cells have dropped low enough that other costs have become significant. This is pushing companies to increase efficiency which opens the door for other applications. A hypothetical cheap ~30% efficient solar panel could add something like 40 miles of range per day to a car in ideal conditions. That starts to look actually useful vs a simple gimmick.

Correct me if I'm wrong, and I quite possible could be, but from a quick Google search, I'm seeing numbers of anywhere 200Wh/mile to 350Wh/mile for a Tesla. If we're generous and assume only 200Wh/mile, then 40 miles of range translates to an energy consumption of 8,000Wh. A 100 watt solar panel, producing the full 100 watts, would take 80 hours of perfect sunlight to produce enough power for an extra 40 miles of ran…

Here's a recent analysis: https://teslatap.com/articles/solar-vehicle-roof-analysis/

To me it looks like it will never be a meaningful solution, due simply to physics.

Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap

#53

Post by kanox »

yoavm wrote: post #31
maheart wrote: post #12

I recently watched the documentary "Planet of the Humans". For context, the writer of the documentary is an environmentalist. One of the stated points was that solar and wind cannot be relied upon 24/7 -- to account for the lack of reliability, you need to have a backup power generator (e.g. coal power plant) running. The thing about coal plants (does it apply to natural gas plants too?) is that if you "idle" them, t…

a natural gas plant doesn't really suffer from this "idle" problem you're describing with coal power plants. it's also much cleaner.

Why is that? I was under the impression that gas versus coal just changes the fuel that is burnt.

Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap

#54

Post by sephamorr »

CapitalistCartr wrote: post #39
sephamorr wrote: post #28

Power markets are more complicated than most people realize. One thing to note is that solar power can be cheaper than gas, but still not be economic. The fact of the matter is that an intermittent kWh is not as valuable as an on-demand reliable kWh to a utility who's number 1 priority is reliability. Even as solar is acquired at lower and lower prices, if evening power is generated by expensive and inefficient gas t…

Solar all day, NG all night would be a major improvement over our current system. Especially as batteries get better.

Depending on where you are, that's pretty close to what's happened. Right now (4pm), the California ISO is generating 73% from renewables+hydro, 7% nuclear, and the balance gas. Naturally, the night replaces solar with gas. This is largely how California has reduced electricity emissions to their current levels.

Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap

#55

Post by woodandsteel »

Barrin92 wrote: post #9
undershirt wrote: post #4

Is solar just a stopgap tech? Like, do they still require fossil fuel energy to create, not to mention maintain and rebuild? And I know we’re now strip mining the ocean for battery metals. I don’t yet sense the sustainability in this amid all this economic hand-waving of “it’s getting cheaper”. (forgive my tone, i have a hard time of making sense of the big picture of renewables, hoping to eventually see how it actua…

I'm not sure about the resource costs of solar in particular but the question is a very salient one. Vaclav Smil has a great piece on this. "What I see when I see a wind turbine" "the quest for renewable electricity generation. And yet, although they exploit the wind, which is as free and as green as energy can be, the machines themselves are pure embodiments of fossil fuels. • Large trucks bring steel and other raw…

So are you saying that we should abandon renewables, and stick with fossil fuels until a truly green energy technology is invented, sometime in the future?

And if that is not what you are saying, then what exactly do you think we should be doing today?

Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap

#56

Post by Scoundreller »

sephamorr wrote: post #28

Power markets are more complicated than most people realize. One thing to note is that solar power can be cheaper than gas, but still not be economic. The fact of the matter is that an intermittent kWh is not as valuable as an on-demand reliable kWh to a utility who's number 1 priority is reliability. Even as solar is acquired at lower and lower prices, if evening power is generated by expensive and inefficient gas t…

Or just smarter appliances. Plenty of opportunities for thermal banking/battery banking.

Most of my loads, on average, don't need to run that exact second.

I don't mind if my hot water tank super-heats water in the middle of the day for the rest of the day. If electricity is really cheap, my freezer can jump into overdrive.

I don't need my clothes to dry in the next hour, just over the next 8.

I don't care if my fridge/freezer takes a break while I run the microwave or pre-heat the oven.

I don't care if my car charges ASAP as soon as I park, as long as it's charged by 8AM. And let it run as a grid-power bank for a fee.

Then you could have A/C systems that make ice or compress refrigerant in a tank.

Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap

#57

Post by pfdietz »

Barrin92 wrote: post #27
lallysingh wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like a bullshit purity test.

It's not a bullshit purity test at all. It highlights the extremely neglected costs in raw material and non-electrifiable infrastructure that is required to produce materials that are nominally 'green'. In some cases it's questionable if some green technologies actually are a net positive at all. There is a strong 'abundance' bias implicit in articles by people like Ramez Naam, who push so strongly for green energy p…

I think you just don't like that your hairshirt and woe philosophy is not popular or necessary.

How about we ignore you and buy ever increasingly cheap and clean products that make our lives better?

Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap

#58

Post by maallooc »

pfdietz wrote: post #50
maallooc wrote: post #48

Cheap for the economy, not so cheap for the environment. These kind of articles rarely calculate the price to dispose old solar panels. Our country recently found that current methods for disposing solar panels pose a grave danger to the environment and imposed strict regulations for it. As a result the price for disposal quadrupled. Because consumers of the solar panel, which are mostly individuals, can't afford tho…

"Grave danger" from what?

That just dumping old solar panels into the landfill will cause Cu, Pb, As, Cr to spread into the ground effectively contaminating it. The government is trying to ban dumping it and trying to impose a responsibility to manufacturers to properly recycle and decontaminate it, which will cost about 4~5 times more than dumping.

Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap

#59

Post by pfdietz »

cycomanic wrote: post #35
Barrin92 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure about the resource costs of solar in particular but the question is a very salient one. Vaclav Smil has a great piece on this. "What I see when I see a wind turbine" "the quest for renewable electricity generation. And yet, although they exploit the wind, which is as free and as green as energy can be, the machines themselves are pure embodiments of fossil fuels. • Large trucks bring steel and other raw…

Well we should ask this for every energy technology and fortunately people have done this. The term for this is energy return on investment (EROI) where solar has between 8.7 and 34 and wind between 10 and 20 (although other literature says 20 to 50). A value 1 means you get as much energy as you invested. So for solar that means you get your energy used for production back in 1 to 4 years. Source: https://en.m.wikip…

And the EROEI has been increasing, since one aspect of driving these technologies down their experience curves is reduction in inputs, including energy, needed to make them.

Re: Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap

#60

Post by skybrian »

maallooc wrote: post #48

Cheap for the economy, not so cheap for the environment. These kind of articles rarely calculate the price to dispose old solar panels. Our country recently found that current methods for disposing solar panels pose a grave danger to the environment and imposed strict regulations for it. As a result the price for disposal quadrupled. Because consumers of the solar panel, which are mostly individuals, can't afford tho…

I'm wondering why landfills are insufficient? Are the linings not good enough?
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