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NY launches live dashboard of each regions progress hitting 7 reopening criteria

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Re: NY launches live dashboard of each regions progress hitting 7 reopening criteria

#141

Post by bsder »

tathougies wrote: post #128
bsder wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that exponential growth looks flat until it looks vertical. People either get this or they don't or they choose not to. New York was going vertical. The rest of the country went "Oh, hell, no" and locked down to prevent that from even starting. But, it's okay. We're running a nice set of experiments right now with the experimental group (red states reopening) vs control group (blue states staying locke…

Exponential growth is never vertical. Why must we resort to hyperbole when the truth is scary enough?

To a first order approximation it is.

And the reason we need to try analogies and hyperbole is because even people who are arguing in good faith don't get exponential growth.

Normal people look at 2 on day 1, 4 on day 4, 8 on day 7 and think "Oh, about 4 every 3 days. Shrug. No big deal." Horizontal.

Epidemiologists look at that and go "AHHHHH! Doubling every 3 days. Shut everything down or we'll have a million in 2 months and 10 million a week later." They're looking at the vertical section of the curve.

This is similar to people misunderstanding fire. Most people have experienced a campfire. The energy drops off like 1/r^3, so it's no big deal. Most people haven't experienced a wind driven wall of flame where the energy drops off like 1/r so things simply spontaneously combust next to the flamefront. And that's just cubic vs linear.

Re: NY launches live dashboard of each regions progress hitting 7 reopening criteria

#142

Post by raz32dust »

josephorjoe wrote: post #59
shmatt wrote: post #43

i think what many people don't understand are how many other layers will block re-opening once the gov. gives a green light. plenty of businesses are closed in states where the Governor has given a green light to re-open. It can be plain common sense by the business owner, city laws, office buildings enforcing impossible rules such as 1 person per elevator, liability from lawsuits and the insurance fees that come fro…

What percentage of people don't understand that (serious question)? I'm in nyc so my perspective is likely a little skewed, but I can't see anyone who can avoid doing so rushing back into restaurants, subways, or really any avoidable indoor or crowded activity. :( But, yeah, I see the protesters desperately wanting to reopen everything in the midwest, so I guess a lot of people must think the problem is politics not…

Politics is definitely important here, because at the end of the day it is a question of values. If the majority of the nation wants to keep business open even at the cost of hundreds or thousands of lives every day, that is a question of politics. I can only say that I hope they have all the right, accurate information when making this judgement.

Re: NY launches live dashboard of each regions progress hitting 7 reopening criteria

#143

Post by Closi »

xienze wrote: post #99
munk-a wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The problem is that we can’t just snap our fingers and make tens of millions of tests appear out of thin air. You are correct - but we (or rather the government) can snap it's fingers and compel some private companies that are well positioned to be able to manufacture tests to do so at a higher priority than other business concerns - or we (again the government) can issue generous contracts for testing supplies tha…

> can snap it's fingers and compel some private companies that are well positioned to be able to manufacture tests to do so at a higher priority than other business concerns And we’ve done that with things like masks and ventilators. But there is a key limiting factor with the tests, the reagant supply. Again, can’t just snap our fingers and make it happen faster. This isn’t AWS, we can’t just spin up more supply in…

America does have just as good of an ability to secure reagent supplies as any other countries though, excluding the ones that produce it domestically. The exception time this is that different testing machines require different reagents.

It’s not like every country is getting a ration of the same number of units - so it shouldn’t be harder for large countries. Again this is likely an issue for smaller countries as they have to compete with America for a share of the reagent supply.

Re: NY launches live dashboard of each regions progress hitting 7 reopening criteria

#144

Post by andarleen »

romwell wrote: post #31
codemati wrote: post #2

Very informative and transparent. This should be the standard everywhere. I'm a bit surprised (and disappointed) something similar does not exist for the Bay Area.

>I'm a bit surprised (and disappointed) something similar does not exist for the Bay Area. Keep in mind that the total number of COVID deaths in CA is less than than the number of deaths in NY on a single bad week . While a dashboard like this would be good, I think that an order of magnitude difference warrants perhaps being less disappointed.

Genuine questions: what makes ca have such lower number of deaths compared to ny, given it has a comparable number of tourists and both are crowded? Also, ca has a somewhat comparable climate to italy and spain, yet CA has fared much better. What the heck is the missing piece here?

Greece is also similar to italy and spain and it has far less numbers of deaths. East EU countries as well yet Russia is doing far worse. Very odd behaviour from this virus and i dont think the gaps are in counting methodology or over/under reporting.

Re: NY launches live dashboard of each regions progress hitting 7 reopening criteria

#145

Post by danieltillett »

andarleen wrote: post #144
romwell wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I'm a bit surprised (and disappointed) something similar does not exist for the Bay Area. Keep in mind that the total number of COVID deaths in CA is less than than the number of deaths in NY on a single bad week . While a dashboard like this would be good, I think that an order of magnitude difference warrants perhaps being less disappointed.

Genuine questions: what makes ca have such lower number of deaths compared to ny, given it has a comparable number of tourists and both are crowded? Also, ca has a somewhat comparable climate to italy and spain, yet CA has fared much better. What the heck is the missing piece here? Greece is also similar to italy and spain and it has far less numbers of deaths. East EU countries as well yet Russia is doing far worse.…

It is possible that the strains in NY and surrounding are different than on the west coast. There is a very interesting hypothesis that the D614G mutation that is found in NY is more contagious than the strains found in CA for example.

Re: NY launches live dashboard of each regions progress hitting 7 reopening criteria

#146

Post by CPLX »

andarleen wrote: post #144
romwell wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I'm a bit surprised (and disappointed) something similar does not exist for the Bay Area. Keep in mind that the total number of COVID deaths in CA is less than than the number of deaths in NY on a single bad week . While a dashboard like this would be good, I think that an order of magnitude difference warrants perhaps being less disappointed.

Genuine questions: what makes ca have such lower number of deaths compared to ny, given it has a comparable number of tourists and both are crowded? Also, ca has a somewhat comparable climate to italy and spain, yet CA has fared much better. What the heck is the missing piece here? Greece is also similar to italy and spain and it has far less numbers of deaths. East EU countries as well yet Russia is doing far worse.…

I’ll preface this by saying I definitely don’t know the answer to the question, but I think sensitive dependence on initial conditions and just straight randomness have been severely under discussed as possible contributors around the world.

I think there’s some natural hubris here where humans think they have the ability to control the outcome, without pausing to wonder how accurate that really is.

Re: NY launches live dashboard of each regions progress hitting 7 reopening criteria

#147

Post by xdxdx »

andarleen wrote: post #144
romwell wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I'm a bit surprised (and disappointed) something similar does not exist for the Bay Area. Keep in mind that the total number of COVID deaths in CA is less than than the number of deaths in NY on a single bad week . While a dashboard like this would be good, I think that an order of magnitude difference warrants perhaps being less disappointed.

Genuine questions: what makes ca have such lower number of deaths compared to ny, given it has a comparable number of tourists and both are crowded? Also, ca has a somewhat comparable climate to italy and spain, yet CA has fared much better. What the heck is the missing piece here? Greece is also similar to italy and spain and it has far less numbers of deaths. East EU countries as well yet Russia is doing far worse.…

One major factor is just how early California ordered residents to shelter-in-place (or "lockdown"). Several San Francisco Bay Area counties issued an order on March 17. Governor Newsom then issued a statewide order on March 19. On that day, California had 1,006 cases. Compare this to New York's 7,102 cases on March 20 when its residents were ordered to shelter-in-place, or Italy's 9,172 cases on March 9 when its national lockdown was instituted. So New York and Italy were already quite behind to start with.

California also has a few other things going for it, for example: CA's urban areas are not as dense as somewhere like NYC. Compared to Italy, the population is relatively young. Many people have professional jobs that can be done remotely (companies like Google and Facebook sent their employees home even before March 12). Public transit is very bad in CA, so almost everyone drives their own car.

Re: NY launches live dashboard of each regions progress hitting 7 reopening criteria

#148

Post by chiefalchemist »

romwell wrote: post #89
jeron wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's not the point though. While we're not hit as bad, we should have a reopening dashboard instead of a silly slideshow[1] with some rhetorical questions [1]: https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/California...

>While we're not hit as bad We are not hit as bad because of the actions of the government who has issued the shelter-in-place before NY did, when we had 1/10th the rate of infection. I don't agree with everything the government does, but let's give credit where credit is due. That we were not hit as bad is not coincidental. That give, I'm perfectly willing to cut them some slack.

Not hit that bad by C19. But what about other unintended consequences?

For example, in NYC, domestic violence calls are down. The fear is, the abusee is too afraid to call. Suicides are up. Substance abuse is up. Those who are locked down are putting on weight and becoming unhealthy; C19 does better when paired with other conditions. The economic fallout hasn't hit yet. And so on.

I'm not taking sides (i.e., pro v anti lockdown). I am noting that C19 cases and fatalities coded as C19 are not the only KPIs. There's a bigger picture. We need to look at that bigger piture.

Re: NY launches live dashboard of each regions progress hitting 7 reopening criteria

#149

Post by chiefalchemist »

Some of these KPIs could be better:

- Approx 50% of deaths are from residents of extended care facilities. Those are a special case and should be tracked separately.

- A running tests to positives ratio is essential. 100 new cases from 200 tests is not the same as 100 new cases from 300 tests.

- A running per capita of "active" cases would be helpful. Is it increasing or decreasing? That is, in the broader non-hospitalized population approx how many carriers are there?

- Hospital capacity status is helpful but preventing the healthcare system from being overwhelmed is not the same as stifling the progress of the virus. It's a helpful proxy but it's still a proxy.

Re: NY launches live dashboard of each regions progress hitting 7 reopening criteria

#150

Post by redis_mlc »

esoterica wrote: post #137
redis_mlc wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Newsom wants to run for President, so expect a timid response from him on re-opening the Calif. economy. Ironically, the Bay Area has close ties to China, so we're probably the closest to herd immunity of any US location. You can look at the local hospital dashboard and see there's no Bay Area corona crisis - the numbers have been the same for 2 months now: https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx

That's not how herd immunity works. If the bay area was close to herd immunity, you would see >NYC level death numbers from there.

No, the Bay Area corona ramped up starting Dec., so you won't see NY-style weekly death rates.

Let me put it this way. If you live in the Bay Area, you know people from Wuhan. We got a huge head start on the rest of America.

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