Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad? • Hacker News Board

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#711

Post by mcv » Mon, May 11, 2020, 7:37 AM UTC

alasdair_ wrote: post #692

magicsmoke wrote: post #520

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Individual assassinations don't change the system. How many rich people do you think have to be assassinated for the economic system that allows accumulated wealth inequality of this scale to change? Would killing Bill Gates or Warren Buffet somehow magically reconfigure how American society works? It's much harder to kill a system than it is to kill individual people. Like you hinted at, the American military has ha…

> Individual assassinations don't change the system. Franz Ferdinand’s assassination changed a whole lot of systems.

It was the spark that ignited the fire, but the kindling was already there. It probably still would have happened without his assassination, though possible a few years later.

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#712

Post by kevin_thibedeau » Mon, May 11, 2020, 7:38 AM UTC

eanzenberg wrote: post #583

caseysoftware wrote: post #558

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It may make you feel good to blame the current guy but we've had the whim of the Executive since the beginning. The only things that has changed are a) the willingness to use it and b) the sheer number of places it can be used. Obama ordered drone strikes on Americans. Reagan ran Iran-Contra. Kennedy tried to invade Cuba. FDR tried to grow the Supreme Court to 13. A better approach would be for the federal government…

Constitution is built with the understanding that those odds are zero, and that gridlock is the natural tendency.

You only have to look at the behavior of prosecuting attorneys who are free to downgrade criminal charges as they see fit with predictable biases as a result.

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#713

Post by mcv » Mon, May 11, 2020, 7:43 AM UTC

pmiller2 wrote: post #575

magicsmoke wrote: post #520

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Individual assassinations don't change the system. How many rich people do you think have to be assassinated for the economic system that allows accumulated wealth inequality of this scale to change? Would killing Bill Gates or Warren Buffet somehow magically reconfigure how American society works? It's much harder to kill a system than it is to kill individual people. Like you hinted at, the American military has ha…

How many rich people need to be assassinated to change the balance? Looks like it's about 3: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/11/08/billionaires... In any case, assassination is probably not the most effective means of wealth redistribution.

Just reverting the tax cuts for the wealthy would already do a lot of good. I also think a steep inheritance tax for inheritances over a certain amount (1 million? 10 million?, 100 million?) to preventing these concentrations of wealth from creating a new aristocracy.

But 3 billionaires owning more than the bottom half of the country doesn't have to mean if the bottom half owns nothing:

>> "Their $264.1 billion in holdings outstrips the combined net worth of an estimated 160 million people"

Simply redistributing that would mean that everybody in the bottom half gets $1600. That's not going to fix poverty. It only underscores just how little that bottom half really has.

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#714

Post by jbay808 » Mon, May 11, 2020, 7:45 AM UTC

WalterBright wrote: post #500

peterangular wrote: post #477

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The Millionaire Next Door" was published in 1996 when the economy was booming, the dot-com bubble had yet to burst, and the employment market meant anyone slightly skilled could get a FT+benefits career. In the 24 years since that book's publishing I absolutely argue that ladder has become more difficult to climb. But hey - what do I know? I'm just a lazy millennial who's now living through his second major recessio…

The market has done even better in the last 10 years than in the 90's. Besides, I heard the same lament in the 70s, 80s, 90's, 00's, and 10's. > I don't doubt that's how they feel about themselves and self report!!! Always better to guess than pick up the book and read it!

The market has done great since 2008! Wonderful time to have already had a lot of money on hand to invest, for sure. And man, I tell you, all of the houses I bought have gone way up in value, even faster than earnings! What do people even have to complain about?

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#715

Post by Glyptodon » Mon, May 11, 2020, 7:48 AM UTC

losvedir wrote: post #448

Glyptodon wrote: post #435

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if they all did that, they still end up buying after all the really wealthy get in, whether it's investment bankers, venture capital, hedge funds, or whatever else, normal income people just end up buying from the 1% and 0.1% who got in privileged and early. Add on top of all that, think about all the investments with minimums that are thousands of dollars and it's obvious that regular money will always be behin…

No, this is just atrociously wrong. It pains me to see because the post you're responding to about getting everyone to chip in a small amount to investments every month is one of my pet goals that I've helped many friends with. Everything you've said is wrong. I don't know what you mean by "getting in after all the really wealthy get in"... VCs, IPOs? That's not even close to necessary. Investing in simple index fund…

I'm not saying it's necessary, I'm just saying the previous poster can't seriously expect that the 84% (86%?) number will decrease much from everyone investing if that percentage's owners are able to always outperform - even if the top 10% (or even 1%) only have a 2% advantage because of better or earlier access it's just going to compound non-linearly compared to everyone else's returns over time. And it being non-linear means for that 80-something% number to go down the $100/month folks have to continually increase in population at a rate greater than the difference between their rate of return and the rate of return of the top 10% or top 1%.

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#716

Post by sabujp » Mon, May 11, 2020, 7:56 AM UTC

eanzenberg wrote: post #585

hannasanarion wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But they are now, and that's what matters. When prices fell the first time, it didn't even take a week before the government passed the largest stimulus ever, 80% of which went to corporations. Investors know that the government will do anything to underwrite their risk.

False, most of the stimulus went to 1) direct payments to the bottom 90% and 2) small businesses with less than 50 employees.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/mone... , the fed is buying junk corporate bonds

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#717

Post by durnygbur » Mon, May 11, 2020, 8:01 AM UTC

catalogia wrote: post #321

jjoonathan wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the threat model is packs of desperate people looking to take your stuff, not bombs.

Being underground won't help much if your assailants decide to smoke you out. To stop that you'd need to shoot back or have a very robust and well designed fortification, with air filtration and redundant hidden vents. If you were committed to fighting back, an above ground fortification made out of reinforced concrete would be easier/cheaper to construct and would probably give you a better view of your surroundings…

Invest in bunker REITs in Eastern Poland![1] Either way bunkers tend to be blown up by one side or another...

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolf%27s_Lair

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#718

Post by xondono » Mon, May 11, 2020, 8:02 AM UTC

pineaux wrote: post #220

xondono wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, you get rich by doing what the rich want, not what most people want, that’s why Lamborghini owns Volkswagen! Wait..

You think Volkswagen makes cars for the poor? Show me a poor person who can buy a new car and I will show you someone who is borrowing.

I didn’t imply that they made cars for poor people, I implied they don’t make cars for rich people.

There’s a lot of people that are neither poor nor rich, that people keep thinking in those terms baffles me.

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#719

Post by mcv » Mon, May 11, 2020, 8:04 AM UTC

arghnoname wrote: post #566

lotsofpulp wrote: post #460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> most will probably become wealthy again. Source?

There's a book that attempts to look at this called, "The Son Also Rises." It tracks wealth by surnames and argues that the ability to gain (or regain) wealth is inheritable. This thesis is in contradiction to some of the ways I've experienced the world, but it is a source supporting the parent's claim. For my own political inclinations I'd be happy to hear many others that support the opposite claim.

Being born in the right family is absolutely a major predictor of success. The wealth opens up opportunities, but even without it, the guidance and example of family members helps a lot. The name recognition may too.

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#720

Post by xondono » Mon, May 11, 2020, 8:04 AM UTC

sudosysgen wrote: post #645

HPsquared wrote: post #470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Cars for the rich" is not their MO.

Their MO used to be "The People's Car". The People do not buy new cars without massive credit anymore, and in general do not buy new cars at all.

“They do not buy new cars” is a great way for car manufacturers to lobby for more benefits.

Looking at sales numbers, “they don’t sell as much as they used to” is waaaay more accurate.