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Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

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Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#631

Post by everybodyknows »

ethbro wrote: post #60
nkurz wrote: post #2

https://archive.is/cmMx5 It's a decent article. Here are their 5 reasons: 1. Bets on a “V-Shaped” Recovery 2. Market Leaders Keep Rising 3. Corporate-Earnings Expectations Remain High 4. Old Habits Die Hard 5. The Fed’s Backing Personally, I'm betting we're still headed to a bloodbath, but slowly. This quarter's earnings are expected to be terrible, so this is already priced in. But the market is expecting a recovery…

My $0.02, we're going to see bifurcation that the market hasn't fully priced in. Not a good time to be in broad ETFs. Highly likely: Coronavirus is going to be circulating until the end of 2021 (based on transmissibility & vaccine timeline). We'll have better therapeutics to blunt the symptoms. But steps required to (intermittently) re-suppress transmission (NYC is ~20% exposed? So at minimum 1-2 more spike repeats)…

>no version of social distancing or lockdown that permits normal brick and mortar economic activity

I happen to agree, which is why I struggle to explain the last few week's stock price gains for companies that can hardly adapt e.g. DRI, SIX. Sit-down restaurants and theme parks.

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#632

Post by tsimionescu »

glennvtx wrote: post #550
kalleboo wrote: post #465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It should be in proportion to how many % of the wealth they own. So more like 90%

They will simply leave, or destroy the system.

How do you imagine this would work? Would no one in America found companies anymore? Would the government sit by and allow the to leave? How would companies like health insurance leave?

Imagining that the richest can hold a country like the US hostage is preposterous.

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#633

Post by pyuser583 »

ForHackernews wrote: post #307
shawnz wrote: post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you think a typical middle class American would rather be living in the world as it was 40 years ago though? Or today's world, full of technology and infrastructure that was funded by the rich?

Is this even a question? 40 years ago housing, healthcare and education were vastly more accessible than they are today. Middle class jobs paid wages that could produce a middle class standard of living. The only thing you'd miss out on would be a bunch of hollow digital toys. Would I trade my iphone to be able to own a house and have my children go to college? Of course! Who wouldn't!? In 1985, in-state tuition and…

We’re healthcare and education more accessible? Cheaper, certainly. That’s different from accessible.

I was a child then, and I vaguely remember easy access to GPs, but specialists required travel. Long travel.

A smaller portion of the population went to college. Seems more accessible now.

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#635

Post by sudosysgen »

eanzenberg wrote: post #458
tinco wrote: post #443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're overestimating the value of high intelligence. I don't believe we have any accurate means of identifying potent leaders, not even a 10% slice they might belong to.

Strip the wealthy if their wealth and most will probably become wealthy again. If you don’t call it intelligence what would you call it.

There is no significant relationship between any measurable attribute of someone and their wealth, except for the wealth of their parents. So no.

There are a few relationships between IQ and conscientiousness and wealth, but they break down towards the extremes are not strong enough in magnitude to account for even single-quartile mobility.

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#636

Post by sudosysgen »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #205
JKCalhoun wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like there is a decade of guillotines in the future that they are either not seeing or are looking way past. But then I've always been cynical about the growing divide between the uber-wealthy and the other 99% of this country.

Guillotines might have worked well in the past, but with modern weapons and technology, you can use a much smaller portion of the population to suppress a much larger portion of the population. You can pay 10% of the population well enough that they support the top 0.01%, and the top 10% can pay the next 20% to 30% well enough or provide a sufficient probability to move up (or illusion) that they are incentivized to…

There is a much simpler alternative. The general strike.

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#637

Post by sudosysgen »

wbazant wrote: post #442
ccffpphh wrote: post #413

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would New York even do? People here don't believe in firearms, let alone violence. In reality the city would starve within a couple weeks due to siege/blockades if it really united and tried to revolt.

Kropotkin's Bread Book is about exactly that! He claims any revolution will be as successful as its ability to feed everyone, and tries to outline a path to it.

To name it, "The Conquest of Bread". Very good read, kept me from snoozing off in my CS classes :p

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#638

Post by sudosysgen »

eanzenberg wrote: post #456
Glyptodon wrote: post #426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, people always say "Why should I pay more in taxes? It's not fair, they should be flat and the same for everybody!" and I'm always like "Do you have just as much to lose in a French Revolution scenario? You should be happy to pay more if it leads to more social stability."

The top 1% pay something like half our taxes. What share do you think is fairer?

They can only do so because of the bottom 80% from which they extract their profit.

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#639

Post by tsimionescu »

Natsu wrote: post #607
JKCalhoun wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like there is a decade of guillotines in the future that they are either not seeing or are looking way past. But then I've always been cynical about the growing divide between the uber-wealthy and the other 99% of this country.

I don't see how they would help. There's a common refrain among Reddit socialists and whatnot about the rich sitting on some mythical "pile of resources" that needs to be redistributed, but even if you suppose that we guillotine the rich I don't think the poor can eat stock certificates. What are they going to do if they dismantle, say, Wal-Mart? Now all the people who worked there have no jobs and the people who sho…

How about ripping Wal-Mart apart and replacing it with what existed before - many different shops, each owned by a local person, and many different logsitics networks, each also owned by someone in the area?

People on the right often claim to be for the free market and for small, decentralized government, but then turn around and love big, centrally planned conglomerates,just as long as they are owned by share-holders and are ruled with an authoritarian hand.

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#640

Post by sudosysgen »

Consultant32452 wrote: post #531
harimau777 wrote: post #512

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was just the result of a quick Google search so perhaps the numbers aren't accurate, but this website suggests that you need a net worth of 1.5 million to open a Taco Bell franchise. https://www.lendingtree.com/business/small/how-to-finance-a-... I think that would be out of reach for many if not most Taco Bell managers. Presumably it would be even harder in parts of the United States with higher costs of living…

Imagine being on ycombinator and not understanding how people get funding to start businesses.

The vast majority of America cannot get 1.5 million dollars in funding to start a Taco Bell franchise. In fact, very few people would be able to get a 1.5 million dollar loan to start a Taco Bell franchise.

VC is not the norm. It is very much the exception.

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