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Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

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541–550 of 898 posts

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#541
Because the economy isn’t “bad” like in previous recessions. Generally lots of people are unemployed because of government mandates not to work, not because businesses are experiencing lack of demand. When the shelter orders are lifted, much of the unemployed will be able to resume work. People will be going to the mall, travel, out to eat, etc.

Now it’s not going to perfect - some businesses may find demand doesn’t immediately pick back up (or at all), and then real lay offs happen.

IMHO this is why we find the stock market near previous highs but not quite there.

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#542
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. Also, I know it is hip to say that Wall Street is short-sighted, but in reality it is one of the the few fields where people routinely think decades at a time. If you run a large pension fund or investment account you were already risk-weighted and if the cash isn't needed for 10+ years you'd much rather own a slice of the world's largest companies ten years from now instead of gold or cash under a mattress.

I feel like there is a decade of guillotines in the future that they are either not seeing or are looking way past. But then I've always been cynical about the growing divide between the uber-wealthy and the other 99% of this country.

Not disagreeing. But the proximal reason for this is political. Inequality is not intrinsic to capital markets. Capital markets are merely not a solution for inequality, and require some modicum of intelligent regulation to function properly.

Instead the Us is rife with regulatory capture, unenforced antitrust laws, etc.

If the democracy were representative, and the public informed, things would be better.

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#543
post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you think a typical middle class American would rather be living in the world as it was 40 years ago though? Or today's world, full of technology and infrastructure that was funded by the rich?

Is this even a question? 40 years ago housing, healthcare and education were vastly more accessible than they are today. Middle class jobs paid wages that could produce a middle class standard of living. The only thing you'd miss out on would be a bunch of hollow digital toys. Would I trade my iphone to be able to own a house and have my children go to college? Of course! Who wouldn't!? In 1985, in-state tuition and…

If you leave many of the big wealthy states, middle class jobs pay wages to support middle class living. All my neighbors and family in Cleveland buy houses/housing and live comfortable, easy lives. Same in Texas.

In the states where the "elites" are, housing and participation in the economy is dramatically limited.

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#544
post #359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? A lot of the value of a stock is ability to resell at a high price later. If everyone (including U.S. Fed and gov) agrees to continue to push prices high for the forseeable future, then it seems like prices can lose connection to e.g. ownership in a company.

That’s the definition of a bubble.

I agree, or pretty close. But it's not axiomatic that bubbles always pop (at least on the time span one expects).

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s the definition of a bubble.

Yeah, it made me laugh that the OP stated it in such a matter-of-fact fashion, as if it’s normal or good.

If you're talking about me, I don't think it's normal or good! But I do think it's a matter of fact.

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#546
post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on the type of debt, which is individual to the consumer. Mortgage, auto, and student loan debt compose 88% of consumer debt. [0] These types of debt typically have low interest rates. Market returns for the past decade have exceeded the interest rates. Paying the minimums, and investing the difference? The consumer would be ahead. 12-15% YoY stock returns compound faster than 4% mortgage debt. [0]: https://w…

You're arguing for taking out loans to invest in the stock market, which sounds irresponsible to me.

Are you saying every person who buys a home with a mortgage, while still throwing 5% of salary in their 401(k) is irresponsible? Many, many people do this.

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#547
post #521
post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Neither Theranos nor WeWork were trying to solve rich people problems.

arguably, they solved a problem of where to stick money to try and get a greater than x% return. To do so both companies took on insane levels of risk by trying to solve impossible business/science problems on the basis that they could maybe just spend enough money and fake it till they made it. In WeWork's case some rational investors may have thought that they'd end up with a monopoly on B-tier office space as a fa…

Right, the fact that the market is chasing such high risk investments when there's lots of obvious low-risk work that needs to be done means that the low-risk work has gotten "frozen out" of the economy. Poor people problems aren't problems, as far as the economy is concerned.

Still, WeWork and Theranos are only examples of the "bubble" side of the effect, not so much the "freezing out" side, and they don't really illustrate the contrast between unworthy, overfunded endeavors and worthy, underfunded endeavors. I originally had a more visceral, abstract example that did a much better job, but it was attracting so many drive-by downvotes that I decided to retire it while I searched for better wording/examples. Here is the original:

Economists invite you to ignore this effect by conflating "value" (the economic notion, which is weighted by wealth) with value (the philosophical notion, which isn't, at least not to the same degree). For example, consider the prospect of feeding starving African children. This action has 0 "value" -- the market will not pay you to do this because the kids have no money with which to pay you -- even though the prospect has loads of value in the philosophical sense. Now consider the prospect of merging up the banks so that they can charge higher fees and offload risk to the federal government. This action has loads of "value" -- it gives investors a return, at scale, and investors have lots of money, so their opinion counts heavily -- even though this prospect has zero or negative value in the philosophical sense. Because it is weighted according to wealth, the economic notion of value diverges from the philosophical notion of value in proportion to inequality, and with exploding inequality, that's a big problem.

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#548

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is a good thing to me. I’d rather people “work” to earn rather than easily collecting rent through interest. Work in quotes since applying capital in risky investments is work compared to stashing money in an interest bearing account.

What? Putting money in an index fund, or buying Apple stock, or a 401k, is "work"? Companies don't even get the money from secondary stock purchases, so the invested money is doing absolutely nothing. Banks use deposits to create loans whose funds go directly to the companies receiving those loans. Banks which interview the loan applicants, review financials, ask for references, and which themselves tend to be pillar…

> Companies don't even get the money from secondary stock purchases, so the invested money is doing absolutely nothing.

But they can issue new stock at the inflated values to fund expansion, which itself allows the company to grow profits and potentially grow future dividends. E.g. Tesla stock price quadrupled over the last year and then Tesla issued $2 billion worth of new shares in February.

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#549

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the priority order is: a) Consumption spending b) Real estate c) Stocks When middle class people hit diminishing returns on electronics and vacations, they upgrade their houses. Appetite for remodeled kitchens and bigger, nicer, better-located houses is voracious, so relatively few people satisfy it and fall through to stocks. Making sacrifices on housing in favor of your stock portfolio is of course possible…

The biggest tax advantages for investing go to the rich, who can arrange their businesses and finances to max out retirement accounts, and very highly paid professional with fat 401k matches. No matter how someone with a normal salary and a 2% match tries they cannot get anywhere near maxing out a 401k, due to how they’re structured (over 50% of the max can only come from an employer, and the employee can’t make that…

> So there’s discouragement to savings built into our tax law (or stronger-than-appropriate encouragement available only to the already-doing-quite-well, if you prefer)

Only the latter "version" of this is possibly true. Nothing you said shows a discouragement to savings. At best you showed that the wealthier are more encouraged to save.

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#550

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The top 1% pay something like half our taxes. What share do you think is fairer?

It should be in proportion to how many % of the wealth they own. So more like 90%

They will simply leave, or destroy the system.
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