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Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

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531–540 of 898 posts

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#531

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For the common person it's a lottery just to be allowed to work at Taco Bell and do what the Taco Bell handbook tells you? And then, once you become a manager to save your pennies until you have a down payment on your own store? Gimme a break man.

This was just the result of a quick Google search so perhaps the numbers aren't accurate, but this website suggests that you need a net worth of 1.5 million to open a Taco Bell franchise. https://www.lendingtree.com/business/small/how-to-finance-a-... I think that would be out of reach for many if not most Taco Bell managers. Presumably it would be even harder in parts of the United States with higher costs of living…

Imagine being on ycombinator and not understanding how people get funding to start businesses.

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#532
post #13

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I agree. Also, I know it is hip to say that Wall Street is short-sighted, but in reality it is one of the the few fields where people routinely think decades at a time. If you run a large pension fund or investment account you were already risk-weighted and if the cash isn't needed for 10+ years you'd much rather own a slice of the world's largest companies ten years from now instead of gold or cash under a mattress.

I feel like there is a decade of guillotines in the future that they are either not seeing or are looking way past. But then I've always been cynical about the growing divide between the uber-wealthy and the other 99% of this country.

Social chaos, perhaps. But the 1% aren't much at risk, because they have enough resources and can isolate themselves well enough. It's the upper middle class that may get seriously injured.

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#533

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It should be in proportion to how many % of the wealth they own. So more like 90%

The 1% earn 36% of the income[1] as of 2016, and pay 37% of the taxes[2]. Everyone happy now? [1] https://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/a-guide... [2] https://taxfoundation.org/summary-latest-federal-income-tax-...

Income != wealth

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#534

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also interesting how the scale has slid up so much that many people now believe the "American Dream" is to become a millionaire/billionaire. When originally it was merely the idea that if you do the right thing your children will be better off than you were. It wasn't until the gold rush in the 1850s that the American Dream, for some, became this idea of get rich quick scheming. I can't speak to everyone, but my…

Thankfully pretty much everybody still has the ability to buy into a safe neighborhood with a good school district in the Bay Area.

[deleted]

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#535

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am 100% dialing it back in good-faith to explain why I just framed it as you put it. 1. I read tinco's comment to state (paraphrasing): "it is difficult to start a business, and for the common person it is a game of chance." Which, I absolutely agree with when I measure it against my life experiences/knowledge. 2. You replied with two questions, also paraphrasing: "It's a lottery to work at Taco Bell?", and, "And a…

I told the story of one person I knew who started working at Taco Bell in high school and then worked his way up to eventually owning a few of them. The response to that was, "Well, just a lottery winner" with no argument whatsoever. How can you have taken that seriously?

I'm out man. I feel like this is getting super adversarial and into the fray for HN. Sincerely - sorry if I offended.

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#536

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>average Americans (the 90%) In what sense is 90% average?

You have 100 items, 5 are zero, 5 are 100 and the rest are 50. Your average is 50, and 90% of your items are average. These are your average items (the 90%) In this case, though, average is meant in its colloquial form of another way of saying "normal".

For 2017, the average household income was $89k, which corresponds to 65th percentile [0].

There are many "us vs. them" thresholds to choose from; curious what was special about this one.

[0] https://dqydj.com/2018-average-median-top-household-income-p...

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#537

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Genuine question: if a company didn't pay out on its bond, that's a default; how can it default without going bankrupt?

I believe what you’re missing here is a “Chapter 11 Bankruptcy”, as opposed to a “Chapter 7 Bankruptcy”. Chapter 11 means the business keeps running, but the owners lose their money, Chapter 7 is what most of the world considers to be a bankruptcy / going bust / liquidation. Uncle Sam probably doesn’t care if Delta does a Chapter 11, as long as the planes keep flying.

I guarantee that Uncle Sam doesn't care if Delta files chapter 11.

https://money.cnn.com/2005/09/14/news/fortune500/delta/

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#538

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the priority order is: a) Consumption spending b) Real estate c) Stocks When middle class people hit diminishing returns on electronics and vacations, they upgrade their houses. Appetite for remodeled kitchens and bigger, nicer, better-located houses is voracious, so relatively few people satisfy it and fall through to stocks. Making sacrifices on housing in favor of your stock portfolio is of course possible…

The biggest tax advantages for investing go to the rich, who can arrange their businesses and finances to max out retirement accounts, and very highly paid professional with fat 401k matches. No matter how someone with a normal salary and a 2% match tries they cannot get anywhere near maxing out a 401k, due to how they’re structured (over 50% of the max can only come from an employer, and the employee can’t make that…

"Rich" typically do not care about their retirement accounts and do not have an employer. They typically benefit from owning a business, having a stream of passive investments and compounding growth. But this may depend on your definition of rich.

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#539
post #439

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Is there any data on where wealth increase has come from for those people? e.g. started own business, vs savings + stock market, vs investing in real estate.

I recommend getting the book, it's cheap and a good read. It also lays out a path for those that want to accumulate wealth themselves.

Yea - I'll second that even though you don't think I've read it.

Re: Why is the stock market rallying when the economy is so bad?

#540

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does self made mean to you? I read that book when I was in my early 20's. I followed all of its advice, which basically comes down to "live below your means, save, and invest." The truth is I was already following it anyway. My parents lived below their means, and my dad taught me about investing when I was a teenager. Every generation has recessions to deal with. By the time I was in my mid 30's, I was, indeed,…

"Self made" is an over-simplification of a complicated process... one which you impressively admit you've achieved. Which, 100% - that is amazing, and you should be proud of your accomplishments. My definition of "self made" is not important, my point is that everyone's definition is going to be different. Here's the thing - I have no idea who you are, what your history is, and I can't make a single comment on the va…

Thank you... but I never said if I thought I was actually self made!

What if I tell you that my parents did pay for my education? And they gave me a car when I was 16? Or they were fortunate enough to be able buy a computer when I was in elementary school, which definitely contributed to my interests today, many decades later? Am I still self made? Or did that give me too much of a "head start" so I'm not? Was it so long ago now that it doesn't matter?

TLDR: I agree, it's all subjective...

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