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Neiman Marcus files for bankruptcy

reuters.com

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Re: Neiman Marcus files for bankruptcy

#261

Post by lonelappde »

johnvanommen wrote: post #255
toast0 wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where is Fry's acting as an anchor tenant? All of the stores I've seen were freestanding. Often in light industrial areas, not a whole lot of people are going to Fry's and then stop by at the bus upfitter, cause it's right there and they might as well get a commute vehicle for the whole office.

What I'm about to write is pure speculation on my part. Take it with a grain of salt. I used to work for Sears corporate. Sears got some incredibly good deals on leases. They were known to sign leases that are 99 years long: https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/front-range/denver/cou... This creates a "tug-of-war" between the company that owns the building, and the company that is leasing it. For instance, in the ar…

Why doesn't the property owner buy out, win-win?

Re: Neiman Marcus files for bankruptcy

#262

Post by Aunche »

taurath wrote: post #250
Aunche wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They probably meant median productive output. Sam Walton and Bezos made their supply chains 100% more efficient. It’s not as if warehouse workers suddenly were able to lift 100% more weight.

Standardized pallets and forklifts can make them lift a hell of a lot more weight

The people who load pallets are moving just as many boxes as they used to. Sure they play a part in the productivity, but I don't see how it's unfair if they make the same amount for the same work.

Re: Neiman Marcus files for bankruptcy

#263

Post by owenmarshall »

Aunche wrote: post #243
owenmarshall wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But how much did the productive output of the average American increase? Around one hundred percent. https://data.oecd.org/lprdty/gdp-per-hour-worked.htm

They probably meant median productive output. Sam Walton and Bezos made their supply chains 100% more efficient. It’s not as if warehouse workers suddenly were able to lift 100% more weight.

100% more weight per lift I'd agree. But that's hardly relevant. 100% more weight per hour, thanks to algorithmic placement of boxes, computerized dispatch and routing and general ruthless process optimization? I'd be shocked if we didn't end up at 100%.

But it's not just warehouses: efficiency changes have been top to bottom throughout the world. Things like Six Sigma, lean manufacturing, the Toyota Production System ... these have been massive drivers of efficiency nearly everywhere.

I worked manufacturing IT and was able to watch the assembly process. It's frankly amazing and us programmers have lots to learn. The worker that bolts widget A to widget B doesn't just have a box of bolts and a wrench. She pre-places the bolts in a pokayoke tray and places test templates against A and B. Are they misdrilled? Push a button on her console and they are diverted off the line for rework. Good? Templates off, place the assemblies in a work tray that can hold them in exactly one - the correct - configuration, pokayoke tray goes on and nuts screwed to bolts.

The count of nuts and bolts in her station are measured based on flow in/flow out and a runner brings and places more just in time to prevent her station from running out but not before they accumulate at her station. The environment and process is designed to absolutely minimize operator motion, with a supervisor monitoring and filling out time observation sheets to look for wasted effort and opportunities to change.

When I talked with some plant supervisors it was incredible: they were able to point to a manufacturing station and say "this worker takes twelve seconds to execute these five motions", and you could pull out a stopwatch and that was exactly what you would see.

Re: Neiman Marcus files for bankruptcy

#264

Post by economicslol »

stanfordkid wrote: post #210
economicslol wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speaking of abuse of statistics, lumping the bottom 20-40% with the top 60-80% of wage earners is extremely deceptive. It's well known that income growth is wildly different for those groups. Inflation adjusted wages for the median worker only increased by 9% from 1973 to 2014.

True. But how much did the productive output of the average American increase? Can we really expect things to "always increase" -- including wages? To me this seems like an absurd idea. The end goal should be improving the median quality of life, through improving the efficiency of factors of production -- lower cost of goods... not through the expectation that the wages should arbitrarily grow linearly with GDP.

It was true for decades before the mid 70s when productivity and wages decoupled. The reason why isn't clear but there was certainly the expectation that wages would increase for half a century in the US.

https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/

Re: Neiman Marcus files for bankruptcy

#265

Post by taurath »

Aunche wrote: post #262
taurath wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Standardized pallets and forklifts can make them lift a hell of a lot more weight

The people who load pallets are moving just as many boxes as they used to. Sure they play a part in the productivity, but I don't see how it's unfair if they make the same amount for the same work.

Where do crane operators stand in this? Where does the productivity come from?

Re: Neiman Marcus files for bankruptcy

#266

Post by stanfordkid »

economicslol wrote: post #264
stanfordkid wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True. But how much did the productive output of the average American increase? Can we really expect things to "always increase" -- including wages? To me this seems like an absurd idea. The end goal should be improving the median quality of life, through improving the efficiency of factors of production -- lower cost of goods... not through the expectation that the wages should arbitrarily grow linearly with GDP.

It was true for decades before the mid 70s when productivity and wages decoupled. The reason why isn't clear but there was certainly the expectation that wages would increase for half a century in the US. https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/

I think private equity has a large role to play in this. It's sad to me that people point the finger at innovative companies like Amazon, when the real culprits are people who just finance and gut medium size companies you've never heard of in order to eat up the margin that was previously going to workers and extract it for themselves and their LPs.

Re: Neiman Marcus files for bankruptcy

#267

Post by chillacy »

icedistilled wrote: post #241
chillacy wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> probably from some famous designer I mean that's it in its entirety right? Otherwise by similar reduction, a Picasso is just some acrylic on canvas.

true, a picasso is just acrylic on canvass but it's not acrylic on canvass mass produced in a factory. If Miuccia Prada herself sewed together a tshirt and painstakingly put on the rhinestones with much thought, then no one would be questioning the price.

Maybe expensive whisky or wine is a better comparison. They're both mass produced and their value derives more from scarcity than better worksmanship.

Re: Neiman Marcus files for bankruptcy

#268

Post by Tronno »

dpeck wrote: post #128
andyv wrote: post #85

One of Frederick Wiseman's wonderful documentaries is "The Store", which is about Neiman Marcus sometime in the 80's. Currently streaming on Kanopy. One sequence showed the CEO giving a pep talk to his buyers, whose relationship with their suppliers was always strained at best. He told a joke about a buyer who called his supplier that went something like: Buyer: "Hello, is Fred Jones there?" Receptionist: "I'm sorry,…

That is so spot on. I've occasionally played the role of solutions engineer/sales engineer/whatever as part of two different companies selling consumer electronics products to big box stores and that is 100% right. The supplier/buyer relationships are very "frenemy" even in the best of times.

> The supplier/buyer relationships are very "frenemy" even in the best of times.

Why?

Re: Neiman Marcus files for bankruptcy

#269

Post by cik »

listenallyall wrote: post #239
cik wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'd be surprised. The cost of rubbish clothing has fallen, but then the cost of very reasonable mid-quality has dramatically fallen. I used to buy Levis, then Gap for mid range. Now, I get the same quality (and literally the same factory) jeans from Joe Fresh, for 1/4th to 1/5th of the price. Suit shirts are the same. An online tailor I've been using for a decade sells shirts at half the price of Banana Republic (c…

Every men's shirt on JoeFresh.com is either $24 or $29. What Gap do you shop at where prices are 4 or 5x higher? I'd use jeans for a comparison but they aren't on the web site.

Joe is frequently $15. Further, it's frequently 20% off at that point. But from a jeans perspective Gap jeans are $79, and the pair I'm wearing where $20. In January I paid $35 for two.

Re: Neiman Marcus files for bankruptcy

#270

Post by cik »

ghaff wrote: post #141
cik wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'd be surprised. The cost of rubbish clothing has fallen, but then the cost of very reasonable mid-quality has dramatically fallen. I used to buy Levis, then Gap for mid range. Now, I get the same quality (and literally the same factory) jeans from Joe Fresh, for 1/4th to 1/5th of the price. Suit shirts are the same. An online tailor I've been using for a decade sells shirts at half the price of Banana Republic (c…

As someone who knows very little about the fashion business--though I have had tailored clothing made--I'm a little surprised that more of a market for bespoke online ordering hasn't developed. Sure, you'll "never" get to the level of an in-person tailor with multiple fittings. But one would think that there would be a fair number of people willing to pay something of a premium for at least roughly customized clothin…

Online tailors have solved that by partnering/paying for local alterations. They come into town X times per year (4-5?) for those who want the ongoing bespoke relationship. Then, when your clothes arrive, you can take them to a tailor to have them altered if necessary - paid for by the tailor, and your details updated, paid for by the tailor.
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