Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

I invented Roomba and assure you, robots won’t take over the world

nautil.us

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

31–40 of 65 posts

Re: I invented Roomba and assure you, robots won’t take over the world

#31

Post by anonAndOn »

Barrin92 wrote: post #21
BowBun wrote: post #8

There is no point made here that robots won't take over the world, he just belabors the point that it is hard to make robots replicate exactly what humans do. Automation will eat everything, it's just a matter of time. Even his problem of 'visually identifying weeds and uprooting them' does not come across as a massive problem, but one that can probably be solved with enough time and demand. Platitudes like these giv…

The fact aside that you just brought up another platitude, actual data suggests that this is wrong. Automation is slow, has been getting slower as is clearly visible in labour productivity and employment statistics and there's really no indication of a large change in that trend. Billions of dollars are invested annually in technologies with marginal productivity improvements, and it looks like there are more and mor…

FWIW, automation is certainly eating jobs in the back office. I push a button and my pivot table gets updated in a few seconds whereas that used to take somebody a couple hours to assemble. Why do I need a second staff accountant, again?

I think it's inevitable that the "junior" office jobs (where many get their start) will be/are replaced by scripts & API's.

Re: I invented Roomba and assure you, robots won’t take over the world

#32

Post by blacksmith_tb »

ianbicking wrote: post #14
BowBun wrote: post #8

There is no point made here that robots won't take over the world, he just belabors the point that it is hard to make robots replicate exactly what humans do. Automation will eat everything, it's just a matter of time. Even his problem of 'visually identifying weeds and uprooting them' does not come across as a massive problem, but one that can probably be solved with enough time and demand. Platitudes like these giv…

I think this underestimates the incredible engineering of the human body. It runs at 100W, while retaining the ability to execute both very high torque actions and fine motor actions, with self-healing grip, and an ability to engage increasing numbers of muscles and the weight of the machine itself to accomplish tasks. One thing I didn't quite realized needed teaching until I taught my daughter: how do you tell when…

Along these lines, I still think Marshall Brain is likely to be proved correct, he predicted automation would instead replace middle management, and then direct unskilled labor in his novel Manna[1].

1:http://marshallbrain.com/manna.htm

Re: I invented Roomba and assure you, robots won’t take over the world

#33

Post by Barrin92 »

petra wrote: post #29
Barrin92 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact aside that you just brought up another platitude, actual data suggests that this is wrong. Automation is slow, has been getting slower as is clearly visible in labour productivity and employment statistics and there's really no indication of a large change in that trend. Billions of dollars are invested annually in technologies with marginal productivity improvements, and it looks like there are more and mor…

I'm not sure productivity is measured correctly. In general it's measured something like increase in $/employee. But let's say you're a commercial printer. The industry is moving to new printers that print double the amount, per employee hour. If prices stayed the same, you'd see double productivity. But because every company has the new, fastest machine , prices greatly reduce, and stop reflecting the fact that a si…

>If prices stayed the same, you'd see double productivity. But because every company has the new, fastest machine , prices greatly reduce, and stop reflecting the fact that a single employee can now do 2x the work.

this phenomenon (price deflation) can exist but we can actually measure deflation/inflation, so there's no need for a hypothetical, and there is no widespread deflation, or put differently increase in consumer purchasing power due to increased production.

There's actually very limited sectors where this dynamic exists (think the costs of a GB of data), but healthcare, construction, education, infrastructure all have not been automated, and hence aren't any cheaper.

In fact there's actually a decline in producitivity in US construction, as decades of erosion and retiring of experienced workers leave the industry in a bad shape, the US has started to lose manufacturing knowledge.

Whatsapp messages and tweets may have gotten a lot cheaper, but it's worth remembering that 'tech' is only 10% of the US economy, employing 3-6 million people depending on how you count. The overwhelming majority of the physical economy and service sector is still practically untouched by it, despite many claims to the contrary.

Just physically you can walk into a retail store, which is the most common place of employment around the world. It's got a Square Stand on the desk maybe, but otherwise, not exactly a lot of things have changed. Same thing in the classroom or a hospital ward.

Re: I invented Roomba and assure you, robots won’t take over the world

#34

Post by _sbrk »

hiidrew wrote: post #11
_sbrk wrote: post #4

I'm not worried about a grad-school project picking up a gun and using it against me. I am worried about something like this, which, while a parody, is not long off: https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/robots/a29610393...

Something like this terrifies me- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TlO2gcs1YvM Tl;dw, mini weaponized AI drones get loose and mass havoc ensues. I'm sure the feasibility behind these isn't close but still, it's an interesting design fiction.

shiver Very well done short film. A chilling vision of the (possibly near) future.

Re: I invented Roomba and assure you, robots won’t take over the world

#36

Post by efdwefwfwerf »

I don't think anybody with a serious knowledge of AI, motion planning, computational geometry, real-time sensors (ex. military) or much of anything else things Roomba confers distinction. So why do I care about what this guy things about robots? That's right. I don't.

Re: I invented Roomba and assure you, robots won’t take over the world

#37

Post by pixl97 »

mechagodzilla wrote: post #22
michaelbuckbee wrote: post #20

I've been trying to make Buckbee's Law happen for a while: "The more a robot looks like a robot the less useful it is." Take fast food as an example: what's really going to change things are automated systems that reduce the number of people needed to run the place. Look at things like touchscreen ordering systems that cut the number of people talking to you. That's not a "robot" but it is automation of a sort.

These aren't really much of an improvement in efficiency though - self-checkout kiosks for stores have been around since at least the early 2000s, and they're still much slower than minimum-wage cashiers with a little experience (maybe Amazon will finally change this, but the tech my local grocery has is definitely as bad as the kiosk I worked alongside in 2003). It takes me much longer to order using a kiosk at a Mc…

The kiosk isn't the productivity increase. The app I order 10 minutes before I get there and the foods already finished is.

Re: I invented Roomba and assure you, robots won’t take over the world

#38

Post by petra »

Barrin92 wrote: post #33
petra wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure productivity is measured correctly. In general it's measured something like increase in $/employee. But let's say you're a commercial printer. The industry is moving to new printers that print double the amount, per employee hour. If prices stayed the same, you'd see double productivity. But because every company has the new, fastest machine , prices greatly reduce, and stop reflecting the fact that a si…

>If prices stayed the same, you'd see double productivity. But because every company has the new, fastest machine , prices greatly reduce, and stop reflecting the fact that a single employee can now do 2x the work. this phenomenon (price deflation) can exist but we can actually measure deflation/inflation, so there's no need for a hypothetical, and there is no widespread deflation, or put differently increase in cons…

// There's actually very limited sectors where this dynamic exists (think the costs of a GB of data), but healthcare, construction, education, infrastructure all have not been automated, and hence aren't any cheaper.

That's true. But it's a bit more complicated.

In construction for example, there's the new prefab sector, which uses a lot of robots, growing nicely. It's a bit challenging to open such expensive factories with boom/bust cycles in construction, but they might figure it out.

As for infrastructure, we're starting to see companies working on robotic heavy equipment.

As for healthcare, that's an industry I don't understand. It's a very innovative industry. And some of the treatments and the medtech should have created efficiency gains, while not looking like robots. For example: curing hepatitis or cnc for dental crowns. But we don't seem to measure that efficiency. Weird.

As for retail, with e-commerce, some of our transactions have surely became more automated. And we chose to convert some if the efficiency gains, into comfort, to receive things at our door. But delivery robots might automate that part too.

Re: I invented Roomba and assure you, robots won’t take over the world

#39

Post by t0mmel »

ianbicking wrote: post #14
BowBun wrote: post #8

There is no point made here that robots won't take over the world, he just belabors the point that it is hard to make robots replicate exactly what humans do. Automation will eat everything, it's just a matter of time. Even his problem of 'visually identifying weeds and uprooting them' does not come across as a massive problem, but one that can probably be solved with enough time and demand. Platitudes like these giv…

I think this underestimates the incredible engineering of the human body. It runs at 100W, while retaining the ability to execute both very high torque actions and fine motor actions, with self-healing grip, and an ability to engage increasing numbers of muscles and the weight of the machine itself to accomplish tasks. One thing I didn't quite realized needed teaching until I taught my daughter: how do you tell when…

Wouldn’t a robot be capable of seeing and measuring if the screw is misaligned? There are more than one way to ensure that a screw goes in correctly. You are compensating for your inaccuracy by using sense of touch and kinaesthetic sense

Re: I invented Roomba and assure you, robots won’t take over the world

#40

Post by krasin »

blacksmith_tb wrote: post #32
ianbicking wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this underestimates the incredible engineering of the human body. It runs at 100W, while retaining the ability to execute both very high torque actions and fine motor actions, with self-healing grip, and an ability to engage increasing numbers of muscles and the weight of the machine itself to accomplish tasks. One thing I didn't quite realized needed teaching until I taught my daughter: how do you tell when…

Along these lines, I still think Marshall Brain is likely to be proved correct, he predicted automation would instead replace middle management, and then direct unskilled labor in his novel Manna[1]. 1: http://marshallbrain.com/manna.htm

Manna is a very underrated story. And it's already happening to some degree: Uber/Lyft drivers don't have managers; they are being directed by a phone app.
Post reply on HN