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A new Moon race has begun

economist.com

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Re: A new Moon race has begun

#11

Post by ceejayoz »

0x8BADF00D wrote: post #10
bryanlarsen wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Landing on the moon in 2024 is far less ridiculous a statement than Kennedy's moon announcement in 1961 was. We can do it, we just don't want to badly enough.

Manned spaceflight and stations are unnecessary in the near term. Autonomous drones and machines can bootstrap colonization. A mining refinery can be bootstrapped easily, all remotely. Then asteroid mining droids will drop their payloads there for refinement and processing.

How near is your "near term" here?

We still pay hefty amounts of money to oil rig workers and underwater welders, even here on Earth. Robot telepresence has a long way to go before we can build an entire refinery in zero-G.

Re: A new Moon race has begun

#12

Post by ceejayoz »

Rebelgecko wrote: post #9
kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #2

The projected dates of 2023 and 2024 for a gateway station and landing are completely unachievable. I assume it's tied into boosterism for the reelection campaign: "Look at what we're going to do in our second term." It's sad that nobody in the media is calling them out on this.

I'm not able to RTFA due to paywall, but I believe that the Lunar Gateway has already gone by the wayside for the first planned mission in 2024. I wouldn't be surprised if the completion date got pushed back a few more times and then it was canceled.

No, they moved it up, to 2023.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/nasa-planning-to-lau...

Re: A new Moon race has begun

#13

Post by derekp7 »

ceejayoz wrote: post #11
0x8BADF00D wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Manned spaceflight and stations are unnecessary in the near term. Autonomous drones and machines can bootstrap colonization. A mining refinery can be bootstrapped easily, all remotely. Then asteroid mining droids will drop their payloads there for refinement and processing.

How near is your "near term" here? We still pay hefty amounts of money to oil rig workers and underwater welders, even here on Earth. Robot telepresence has a long way to go before we can build an entire refinery in zero-G.

Agreed. The benchmark I use is I'll believe that robotic missions make human missions irrelevant, when the day comes that I can get a roomba that works across multiple floors, climbing stairs (and cleaning stairs), empties itself in the trash can, and avoids pet messes instead of dragging poop all over the floor.

Or a laundry system that grabs the basket of dirty laundry (or better yet, picks the close off the floor), washes, then transfers to the dryer, then irons and hangs up the clothes.

If machines can do all that effectively, then they can probably explore other planetary bodies as good as people.

Re: A new Moon race has begun

#14

Post by prewett »

derekp7 wrote: post #13
ceejayoz wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How near is your "near term" here? We still pay hefty amounts of money to oil rig workers and underwater welders, even here on Earth. Robot telepresence has a long way to go before we can build an entire refinery in zero-G.

Agreed. The benchmark I use is I'll believe that robotic missions make human missions irrelevant, when the day comes that I can get a roomba that works across multiple floors, climbing stairs (and cleaning stairs), empties itself in the trash can, and avoids pet messes instead of dragging poop all over the floor. Or a laundry system that grabs the basket of dirty laundry (or better yet, picks the close off the floor)…

If you were going to make a 100% robotic factory/refinery/etc. you would design it for robots. The problem with the Roomba is that houses are designed for people, not robots. A robotic factory could avoid a lot of problems by not needing to design for people.

While I disagree with your benchmark, I don't think we're going to be putting robotic factories in space in 3-4 years. Have we even built a 100% robotic factory on earth yet? Plus, I don't think that anyone has built an autonomous robot for zero-g yet (I'm not counting satellites and Canada-arm).

Re: A new Moon race has begun

#15

Post by ceejayoz »

derekp7 wrote: post #13
ceejayoz wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How near is your "near term" here? We still pay hefty amounts of money to oil rig workers and underwater welders, even here on Earth. Robot telepresence has a long way to go before we can build an entire refinery in zero-G.

Agreed. The benchmark I use is I'll believe that robotic missions make human missions irrelevant, when the day comes that I can get a roomba that works across multiple floors, climbing stairs (and cleaning stairs), empties itself in the trash can, and avoids pet messes instead of dragging poop all over the floor. Or a laundry system that grabs the basket of dirty laundry (or better yet, picks the close off the floor)…

I don't think we have to go that far, though.

Humans operating a remote robot on the Moon is a feasible concept, but there's a lot of remaining work on telepresence to be done. Haptic feedback, VR, robotic finger dexterity.

Full autonomy isn't necessary with the Moon's time lag. It'll be required if you want to do the robotic factory approach on Mars or the asteroid belt or something.

Re: A new Moon race has begun

#16

Post by kevin_thibedeau »

Rebelgecko wrote: post #9
kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #2

The projected dates of 2023 and 2024 for a gateway station and landing are completely unachievable. I assume it's tied into boosterism for the reelection campaign: "Look at what we're going to do in our second term." It's sad that nobody in the media is calling them out on this.

I'm not able to RTFA due to paywall, but I believe that the Lunar Gateway has already gone by the wayside for the first planned mission in 2024. I wouldn't be surprised if the completion date got pushed back a few more times and then it was canceled.

Boeing wants gateway gone because that reduces the threat of competition for SLS and its impending scope reduction or cancellation. Having a flexible platform outside a deep gravity well is more valuable than an expensive lunar landing system and promises of a permanent surface base.

Re: A new Moon race has begun

#17

Post by kyuudou »

derekp7 wrote: post #13
ceejayoz wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How near is your "near term" here? We still pay hefty amounts of money to oil rig workers and underwater welders, even here on Earth. Robot telepresence has a long way to go before we can build an entire refinery in zero-G.

Agreed. The benchmark I use is I'll believe that robotic missions make human missions irrelevant, when the day comes that I can get a roomba that works across multiple floors, climbing stairs (and cleaning stairs), empties itself in the trash can, and avoids pet messes instead of dragging poop all over the floor. Or a laundry system that grabs the basket of dirty laundry (or better yet, picks the close off the floor)…

A Roomba is consumer-grade technology, though. There's a whole different paradigm of manufacturing and production used for i.e. defence, space/aerospace, high-level particle physics at LLNL and so forth. Not really a good metric. Ever read about the National Reconnaissance Office?

Re: A new Moon race has begun

#18

Post by Rerarom »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #6
kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #2

The projected dates of 2023 and 2024 for a gateway station and landing are completely unachievable. I assume it's tied into boosterism for the reelection campaign: "Look at what we're going to do in our second term." It's sad that nobody in the media is calling them out on this.

Landing on the moon in 2024 is far less ridiculous a statement than Kennedy's moon announcement in 1961 was. We can do it, we just don't want to badly enough.

There was way more funding in the 1960s than there is now.

Re: A new Moon race has begun

#20

Post by rowanG077 »

Rerarom wrote: post #18
bryanlarsen wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Landing on the moon in 2024 is far less ridiculous a statement than Kennedy's moon announcement in 1961 was. We can do it, we just don't want to badly enough.

There was way more funding in the 1960s than there is now.

His comment literally states that it's possible but that we just don't want it enough. Not enough funding is the most direct manifestation of that.
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