Neiman Marcus files for bankruptcy • Hacker News Board

Re: Neiman Marcus files for bankruptcy

#171

Post by arbitrary_name » Thu, May 07, 2020, 9:23 PM UTC

selimthegrim wrote: post #136

greedo wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to be an Eddie Bauer guy. Shirts, shoes, shorts, jeans, coats, you name it. Spent a good chunk of change at their mall store where you could try stuff on. Overtime, the fabrics got thinner on shirts and jeans. They stopped stocking my size in store. Stuff started wearing out quicker. I tried to order online, but the order fulfillment was hit and miss. Too bad for them...

Ha did you have the Ford Explorer?

I bought an old Eddie Bauer Explorer model - had no idea who the guy was, but I ran the car for a while and then sold it to someone who paid me almost 30% above the asking price, because he really wanted the Eddie Bauer model.

Thanks, Eddie!

Re: Neiman Marcus files for bankruptcy

#172

Post by greedo » Thu, May 07, 2020, 9:26 PM UTC

selimthegrim wrote: post #136

greedo wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to be an Eddie Bauer guy. Shirts, shoes, shorts, jeans, coats, you name it. Spent a good chunk of change at their mall store where you could try stuff on. Overtime, the fabrics got thinner on shirts and jeans. They stopped stocking my size in store. Stuff started wearing out quicker. I tried to order online, but the order fulfillment was hit and miss. Too bad for them...

Ha did you have the Ford Explorer?

Almost. My sister had one that I missed out on when she got a new car.

Re: Neiman Marcus files for bankruptcy

#173

Post by paganel » Thu, May 07, 2020, 9:28 PM UTC

chadash wrote: post #18

_bxg1 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's also been a huge trend reversal on "conspicuous consumption". Even the wealthy now do their wealth-signaling through minimalism, instead of flash and excess. Self-proclaimed "luxury brands" have a dwindling market.

Do the numbers reflect this? I'm just looking at the stock prices of a few luxury companies like LVMH and and Kering and it seems they were are at all time highs prior to COVID.

It might be because of China and the Chinese market/customers. It's only anecdotal, but last October I got to visit Vienna for one day (I live in Europe) and I was surprised to see a a lengthy queue outside the Louis Vuitton store close to the St. Stephen's Cathedral. First, I was surprised because I couldn't understand why would anyone still wait in that sort of queue for something to purchase in this day and age (when everything it's at a few clicks distance), and second I was also a little surprised by the fact that about 75% of the people waiting in that queue were of Asian origin, most probably Chinese.

Re: Neiman Marcus files for bankruptcy

#174

Post by reducesuffering » Thu, May 07, 2020, 9:30 PM UTC

gen220 wrote: post #93

_bxg1 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. People 20-30 years ago ate that stuff up; these days I think most people see it as garish and tacky. Wealth signaling absolutely still happens, but today the facades it tends to orbit around involve words like "minimal", "natural", "open", "honest". Organic groceries, modernist houses, meditation retreats to exotic places, environmentally-friendly vehicles, freedom from clutter and complication. These, sadly…

I grew up in the south bay, around the early-googler generation of nouveau-wealth. I assumed the kind of wealth signalling typical then was normal. In my experience, fancy clothes were very abnormal and got you the wrong kind of looks. People liked to live in very nice houses on expensive land, but flaunting your wealth beyond that (and maybe your fast car) was generally looked down upon. Porsches were seen as a mid-…

Also grew up in the Bay. The peninsula and the South Bay are the epicenter of the Facebook, Google, and Apple wealth. As these companies have flourished, the surrounding area has become extremely flush with wealth. It was only a matter of time before the materialism that has been seen in LA and NYC set in as the Bay is in its heyday. If you're looking for humility, you'll find it centered around UC Berkeley and Oakland, as opposed to Stanford. The dichotomy between the two prestigious Bay universities is clear and they are the centers of the differences between the portions of the Bay. It's reflected by the types of students that attend and people drawn to the surrounding areas.

Re: Neiman Marcus files for bankruptcy

#175

Post by cactus2093 » Thu, May 07, 2020, 9:30 PM UTC

lkrubner wrote: post #127

Everyone talks about the "Amazon effect" but the changing distribution of income is also worth considering: " Retail is suffering because the middle classes have lost $1,355 trillion in income since 1970 " http://www.smashcompany.com/business/retail-is-suffering-bec...

It is also worth considering that basically all of the shift can be attributed to housing [0]. Exclusive zoning laws and decades of under-building have driven up housing costs so that they eat up more and more of the typical family's salary for non-homeowners (which is much of the middle class).

[0] https://www.vox.com/2015/4/1/8320937/this-26-year-old-grad-s...

Re: Neiman Marcus files for bankruptcy

#176

Post by bsder » Thu, May 07, 2020, 9:32 PM UTC

vl wrote: post #146

lkrubner wrote: post #127

Everyone talks about the "Amazon effect" but the changing distribution of income is also worth considering: " Retail is suffering because the middle classes have lost $1,355 trillion in income since 1970 " http://www.smashcompany.com/business/retail-is-suffering-bec...

Middle class doesn’t shop at Neiman Marcus though.

That wasn't always true.

When I started interviewing out of grad school, I REALLY stretched to go buy a nice suit from Neiman-Marcus, a Valentino at $700 in 1995. The suit was gorgeous and the tailor at N-M did a beautiful job adjusting it to me.

I could be considered, barely, middle-class--certainly the lower end at best. The suit absolutely paid for itself many times over--that's a different set of stories.

That Valentino is now closer to $5,000. Inflation says that Valentino should be about $1,200. I suspect that even at $1,200 most students couldn't stretch for it today.

So, is Neiman-Marcus to blame for going further upscale given that they probably can't make any money in the middle anymore?

Re: Neiman Marcus files for bankruptcy

#177

Post by lazerpants » Thu, May 07, 2020, 9:35 PM UTC

kevstev wrote: post #98

ghaff wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah. It's not just department stores--which I have less direct experience with. A lot of the old line "mail order" outfits like LL Bean, J Crew, Lands' End, etc. (as well as many of the at least semi-premium outdoor clothing/gear/etc. brands) are much more of a both quality and customer service crapshoot than they once were. At the risk of painting with an overly broad brush, when everything is made in the same, mos…

I ordered stuff from Banana Republic Factory about a year ago. I was on their email list, saw something I liked in the ad, clicked on it, bought it. It was on sale, a shirt for like $30. I had good experiences with stuff I bought from them in an actual store years prior. The shirt came, and it was synthetic blend of polyester IIRC- the shirt felt like wearing a garbage bag, but much worse was that the fabric was so t…

Most brand's factory stores use different production factories or textiles than the non-factory stores. J Crew Factory and Brooks Brothers Factory stores are mostly garbage produced by the same designers but at much lower cost than their mall stores. I would recommend avoiding them unless you're looking for something disposable.

Source: my wife works in textile sourcing

Re: Neiman Marcus files for bankruptcy

#178

Post by topkai22 » Thu, May 07, 2020, 9:37 PM UTC

jazzkingrt wrote: post #160

topkai22 wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Becuase the risk of investment is now structured differently with leverage. Let's pretend we live in world where companies are always worth 10x earnings + assets. Our pretend company $100M makes $5M in earnings and has $50M in assets (cash, real estate, etc..) To take the company private, the lenders require an interest of 10% and 10% principal Some PE company (or the CEO, whatever) thinks they can make this work, so…

This was helpful to me. How does the PE company fare in the bankruptcy scenario? Have they put up collateral or are somehow on the hook to the lenders? It's my understanding that the bankruptcy applies only to the purchased subsidiary, so the PE firm only stands to lose the principal they put in at the start. If so, it sounds like the PE firm gets all the upside, but is less exposed to the downside. So they are incen…

You are at the limits of my understanding- in my simple example, the entity that took the company private is only on the hook for the principal, but these deals can be super complicated- multiple layers of companies transfering or lending money to each, and PE companies can be both a lender and an owner through these arrangements.

Re: Neiman Marcus files for bankruptcy

#179

Post by whatok » Thu, May 07, 2020, 9:41 PM UTC

bsder wrote: post #176

vl wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Middle class doesn’t shop at Neiman Marcus though.

That wasn't always true. When I started interviewing out of grad school, I REALLY stretched to go buy a nice suit from Neiman-Marcus, a Valentino at $700 in 1995. The suit was gorgeous and the tailor at N-M did a beautiful job adjusting it to me. I could be considered, barely, middle-class--certainly the lower end at best. The suit absolutely paid for itself many times over--that's a different set of stories. That Va…

All I've taken away from this is Valentino is more expensive in 2020 than it should be. By nature of you even being physically close enough to a Neiman Marcus in 1995, chances are you were of higher income than the rest of the country. They're still located in mostly more wealthy areas of the country.

Re: Neiman Marcus files for bankruptcy

#180

Post by MandieD » Thu, May 07, 2020, 9:43 PM UTC

karatestomp wrote: post #4

bruceb wrote: post #2

I think even without Covid, its harder to tell what is luxury in apparel. There have been a couple articles on this. There used to be a clear difference between the look of clothes at different retailers but not as much anymore. Walk through Neiman Marcus, Nordstrom, Macy's, H&M, and they start to blend together. Doesnt mean no difference but maybe not enough to always charge a premium.

They all seem to have decided on a "market expansion at the expense of brand dilution" strategy. Ditto most of the formerly-consistently-good clothing brands. I'm not really sure which stores/brands replace the ones that have done this, these days. [EDIT] I suspect part of this is because the cost of actually-good clothes hasn't dropped like shitty-clothes costs have, because (this is further speculation on my part)…

Comparing the ladies' t-shirts you can get at Gap or even their more-expensive sibling Banana Republic with ones I bought in the late 90s is amazing. I’m still wearing two old ones around the house, occasionally having to restitch a section of the bottom hems, but I’ve not been able to find any ribbed cotton fabric women's tops that come close to the thickness and durability in the past 10-15 years. The old Gap shirt I’m wearing right now was made in the Philippines around 1996 - I wore it in my school picture that year!

I even have an Old Navy t-shirt from around 2000 that is far sturdier than any current men’s t-shirts (which are still usually sturdier fabric than women’s), and by that point, they were already the discount sibling to Gap.