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Ask HN: Name one idea that changed your life

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Re: Ask HN: Name one idea that changed your life

#771

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you assume we've only tapped 10% of the planet's economic capacity (raw materials, energy, human support capacity) then we're only about 30 yrs from exhausting this planet. To continue doubling we'll need a new _a new earth_ every 12 years to continue it's growth rate. This is the point of the video, that when you're consuming a finite resource, you cannot have infinite growth and when you're 1 doubling away from…

I understand that talking point and that's not the point of my response. The "stock market" - particularly the indices that are improperly used to show the health of the market - can indeed continue going up to infinity for a variety of reasons that have nothing to do with physical production of physical goods. If that rocks your world so much and would like to know more then let me know

I definitely would like to hear about how there can be a real valuation approaching infinity barring playing numbers games like currency/denomination manipulation[1] or artificially inflating share price extrapolated to the whole business[2].

[1]: massive devaluation of currency or a currency split can change the "valuation" in absolute count of the currency, but it wouldnt buy you any more real assets (bread, land, tanks, gold)

[2]: Start a business with a trillion shares, convince a friend to buy 1 share for $1. You're now a trillionaire on paper.

Re: Ask HN: Name one idea that changed your life

#772

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For me, this type of thinking does the exact opposite in that it has a chilling effect on finding solutions and correctly assessing reality. While some of what Al Bartlett says is true, that unfettered exponential growth can't go on forever, other statements are misleading or outright false. He has a soapbox about limiting population growth now (in the US) [0], tied in to concepts of peak oil and other "dark green" t…

Isn't this all obsolete thinking? America (and nearly every other nation in the world) is at replacement population, or nearly. The idea of geometric population growth is some 1950's meme that won't die.

He uses population growth as an example, but the big point is anything that grows geometrically has a doubling rate, and when you're at 50% consumption your only 1 doubling away from catastrophe. Or if you want to talk about summations, If you want to double the availability of something (say houses) you have to repeat the entire time series of production thus far (not counting removals, like demolitions)

Same with the stock market. A stock is basically priced based on it expected future income flows compared to other investment options like bonds. Most things being equal, you need to build an entire whole new business of equal size if you want to double your share value (without dilution i might add).

This task of doing the whole sum again sounds (doubling) much more difficult than "oh just grow at 6% per year for 7 yrs" (rule of 42).

Re: Ask HN: Name one idea that changed your life

#773
post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My life experiences don't match your mental model, sadly. Maybe it has to do with where and how one grows up? For example, I know with certainty that my parents, teachers, and first bosses were enemies. A lot of people on HN seem to have grown up in safe, nurturing, loving environments. But, remember that most of the world's people didn't. I don't mean to call you out - just saying that I would love to have had your…

Sad reality, adequately explained by game theory: https://ncase.me/trust/

Excellent find!!

Re: Ask HN: Name one idea that changed your life

#774
Paul Graham - maker vs manager schedule. It instantly explained why I was frustrated with certain work environments and my own habits.

Reid Hoffman - his cofounder, in a video course at Stanford called blitz scaling, talks about a unique strength Reid has to focus on only the most important task and ignore all other tasks. He says, in the start up phase of a company there is literally too much to do, and for many this is overwhelming because they look at a growing list of tasks and they can become incapacitated. Reid can focus on the the bon fire, and ignore all the small bush fires without stress. For me personally, I felt broken for a long time. I worked as a lawyer and every task was almost equally important so there was always a long running list. I was overwhelmed and not as good as peers. I am honestly only able to focus on the existential bon fire tasks so when I saw this I felt instant clarity and validation. As a start up founder it’s been a super power and when the company transitions to a stable growth phase I know to hand it to someone that can focus on a broader task list.

The common principle of both is accept yourself and find a context where your strengths shine. We live in a culture that emphasizes certain traits and we can feel bad about our characteristics that seem to deviate but in reality they might be unique strengths if we were in different circumstances.

Re: Ask HN: Name one idea that changed your life

#775

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand that talking point and that's not the point of my response. The "stock market" - particularly the indices that are improperly used to show the health of the market - can indeed continue going up to infinity for a variety of reasons that have nothing to do with physical production of physical goods. If that rocks your world so much and would like to know more then let me know

I definitely would like to hear about how there can be a real valuation approaching infinity barring playing numbers games like currency/denomination manipulation[1] or artificially inflating share price extrapolated to the whole business[2]. [1]: massive devaluation of currency or a currency split can change the "valuation" in absolute count of the currency, but it wouldnt buy you any more real assets (bread, land,…

The stock market indices are abstractions of real world value, as in it is impossible for them to represent real world value, and they absolutely can go up to infinity. The S&P500 is printing the value 2,881 at time of writing, and it absolutely can print 1,000,000 and beyond.

When people think about stocks going up forever, they are referring to these indices. Many people are married to one or two particular stocks that they also hope to go up forever with no particular price point in mind. All of that energy is funneled into the indices, as this is what is seen as the lifeblood of economies, it is what the governments react to and the business cycle reacts to.

These are inefficiencies, as these are not the proper things to react to, but it is the best that exists.

All the major indices, for example in the United States: S&P500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, are all calculated in different ways.

The S&P500 is a weighted average of certain variables in their component companies, Nasdaq of different variables, Dow Jones of different variables.

These indices usually are attempts to solve problems of prior indices. So the Dow Jones being the most simplistic of them all, but novel at the time.

As I mentioned earlier, the indices also are not containing the same stocks as they did 10 years ago, or 20 years ago. So it does not represent the market cap growth or contraction that is actually occurring, specifically the actual money or supporting liquidity sustaining the stock prices of the individual companies that are part of the index.

Finally, currency "manipulation" is absolutely a factor. You can't "barr" it, what you described in your footnote is not the currency manipulation that happens. Inflation happens, this is continual devaluation and that is how fiat money works. There is an unlimited supply of money for a limited supply of assets.

The standard you created to support your main thesis is unfortunately divorced from the world. Market capitalization has nothing to do with real productivity. The talking points come from the critics of capitalism in general, yes, there are unhealthy incentives for appropriating the resources of the planet, pointing out that limitation does not have anything to do with what is happening in market capitalization and the role of fiat currencies. It greatly weakens your argument to try to conform things to that position.

Only thing I would add for now is that the major company components of the major indices are not producing real physical goods. Their revenues come from ephemeral intangible resources. These are tech companies using cloud platforms, where the entire platform exists in massive virtualized computational instances that are sharing resources over physical hardware, people are exchanging infinite money for an infinitely scalable resource. In this paragraph, infinite is hyperbole for an unknown maximum, where the point is that it is counterproductive to try to rationalize what the limit is in the entire supply chain of physical hardware just to say "see there is a limit".

You have to look at macroeconomics, and study it like a capitalist, and then have real applicable criticisms which people study to improve the system, compared to trying to dismantle it.

Re: Ask HN: Name one idea that changed your life

#776
post #160

Ignorance can be bliss. Didn't change my life, but has definitely helped me in a lot of cases, especially recent times. Generally speaking, I can't affect what is currently happening in the news, despite how upsetting it might be, and it won't even affect me in a lot of cases. I try to consume little information for things I don't care about or will have a negative effect on me as a way to spare myself from anxiety.…

I think a better way to put this is - don't worry about things you can't change. It's my prime directive in life.

A big one thing you can't change is "the past". People fret about what could have been different or opportunities they missed, or their childhood being different. But you can't do anything about it. You can learn from it and use that going forward, but you can't wish it was different.

Re: Ask HN: Name one idea that changed your life

#777

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems like paranoia

Paranoia is thinking that lizard people are spying on you. Find common instances where people regularly abuse power: child abuse, terrible bosses, emotional abuse of a spouse. The most common denominator is that people hurt others because they can, and those who couldn't will claim that they choose not to.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paranoia

What you're describing happens, but it's not rampant. Paranoia isn't lizard people, it's simply ascribing blame out of fear where it may not exist.

Re: Ask HN: Name one idea that changed your life

#778

Nobody tells this to people who are beginners, I wish someone told me. All of us who do creative work, we get into it because we have good taste. But there is this gap. For the first couple years you make stuff, it’s just not that good. It’s trying to be good, it has potential, but it’s not. But your taste, the thing that got you into the game, is still killer. And your taste is why your work disappoints you. A lot o…

My dad doesn't speak / understand english well. He did manual labor for the past 3 decades (pretty much since having me). For the past year (at 55 years old), he has been learning coding from a javascript book that I've been writing every day every though he didn't understand much. He asks questions and commits to doing problems from the book every day. He updates his progress on notion every day, 7 days a week.

https://www.notion.so/songz/26617ff591e44d4f9c376950e7449819...

Its been a year and he went through a few notebooks of practice problems back to back. He now catches bugs in my book and proofreads my lesson exercises. He can understand my code and give me feedback. His perseverance and dedication to my content is the greatest gift I can ever receive from anyone.

Re: Ask HN: Name one idea that changed your life

#779

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, these are simply heuristics..."rules of thumb" approximations, there are brazillions of them. I doubt there are many people here who aren't fairly familiar with the abstract concept. What I mean by the "protected" part is that even when talking to someone who is familiar with the abstract concept, who will readily acknowledge the existence of heuristics and inherent fallibility, even within themselves (while di…

Hmm, so I'd say the vast majority of people are not familiar with cognitive biases or logical fallacies at all. Just look at advertising and politics, especially anything to do with medicine. I learned long ago that pointing out falacies is not a winning approach to changing someone's mind so I agree with what you mean by agitated. It's also really interesting your point about people acknowledging the fault in genera…

> Hmm, so I'd say the vast majority of people are not familiar with cognitive biases or logical fallacies at all.

But would you say that applies to the userbase of HN?

> My point was it's probably such a protected/strong part of thought because long ago those rules were generally really useful for survival. Overriding them now is possible but takes a lot of work.

Agreed, but if no one is even willing to acknowledge the existence of the phenomenon, what should one do?

Re: Ask HN: Name one idea that changed your life

#780
post #706

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I’m aware of this meme, which echoes loudly on twitter, yet it’s still wrong.

How so?

Your post started with "Elon knows", which implies you can read minds, so as long as your arguments stem from knowing the inner thoughts and assumptions of someone else, it's a rickety foundation to say the least.
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