> Wow. Has Vulkan failed as a standard then? I'm interested in this area but came away from the article feeling extremely confused about what the future of portable graphics programming looks like.
Other than MacOS/iOS Vulkan's future looks just fine.
Windows UWP has failed so incredibly hard that the Windows Store has begun allowing win32 app distribution, so what UWP supports is irrelevant. And Microsoft's game division has even given up on the Windows Store and releases their games on Steam now as well. So UWP is doubly irrelevant currently.
Intel's Skylake & newer support Vulkan 1.1 (which are 4 years old now). Not supporting Haswell/Broadwell is annoying as those do support D3D12, but that's the only API gap in Intel's lineup, and that's obviously something that's on a clock to stop mattering at some point. After all, Intel's iGPU primarily matters on laptops, and laptops tend to have a shorter lifespan than desktops as things other than the CPU show their age a lot more quickly.
The 50% on Android is also a thing that'll be solved with time. If Khronos doesn't do a new OpenGL ES, then eventually the driver priority on mobile will shift over to Vulkan as that's what benchmarks will begin prioritizing, and that's what sells hardware. Android's latency to supporting something new is incredibly long, but it does also keep moving forwards fairly reliably.
So MacOS/iOS is currently the only real question mark on Vulkan's future. But then again, Apple seems to only want Metal on their platform, which doesn't work anywhere else, so no "standard" will matter. You'll be forced onto a compatibility layer of some kind to work on Apple - be it MoltenVK, bgfx/sokol-gfx, or WebGPU. The article dresses up WebGPU as being superior because it's backed by a standard, but that's nonsense. The quality of the implementation is the only thing that matters, and bgfx/sokol-gfx already have quite the head-start there. There's no particular reason to think a couple of people on Firefox are going to be "strictly superior" to the couple of people on bgfx/sokol-gfx. Maybe WebGPU will end up better, in which case great! But it's the same basic thing as what already exists today. It's very firmly in the "compatibility layer" camp here, despite the article trying desperately to dress it up as something else. There's no driver support for it, there's no influence on hardware road-maps, etc...
So right now if you could only target a single driver API then Vulkan would cover more platforms than any other driver-native standard. Which is no small feat.