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Saudi stocks slump as minister warns of ‘painful’ measures ahead

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Re: Saudi stocks slump as minister warns of ‘painful’ measures ahead

#61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm an Iranian who moved to the U.S. only a few years ago. Something most people here in the U.S. don't understand is that countries like Iran have a far different threshold of pain. Iran, as a result of sanctions had already entered starvation-levels of economic collapse. There are people who are sleeping in open graves. Yet, the regime is not backing down in any way. It hasn't change course at all.

What does sleeping in an open grave mean? While you were in Iran, were you involved in what the US called the Arab Spring? Was it really spread by Twitter? Did it seem like the regime might topple?

The fuck is up with the downvotes?

Re: Saudi stocks slump as minister warns of ‘painful’ measures ahead

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm an Iranian who moved to the U.S. only a few years ago. Something most people here in the U.S. don't understand is that countries like Iran have a far different threshold of pain. Iran, as a result of sanctions had already entered starvation-levels of economic collapse. There are people who are sleeping in open graves. Yet, the regime is not backing down in any way. It hasn't change course at all.

What does sleeping in an open grave mean? While you were in Iran, were you involved in what the US called the Arab Spring? Was it really spread by Twitter? Did it seem like the regime might topple?

That means they find an unused grave and sleep in it [0]. Google images has some pretty disturbing pictures of the phenomena.

Iran had green movement [1] which happened earlier than Arab Spring. Peaceful protesters rushed to the streets after a fraudulent election and hundreds were murdered by the regime.

The other candidates have been under home arrest ever since.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grave_Dwellers

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Green_Movement

Re: Saudi stocks slump as minister warns of ‘painful’ measures ahead

#63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd draw a pretty significant distinction between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iran has a theocratic regime, and gets a lot of oil revenue, but is a fundamentally diversified and surprisingly self-sufficient economy. They have factories, an educated population, and they produce a fair number of things other than oil. Agriculture exists (if not self-sufficient). Saudi Arabia is oil rich. The princes are oil rich. The wealth…

Fairly sure I'v seen news over the past few years about Saudi Arabia diversiftying. From https://saudiembassy.net/agriculture-water -: Today, Saudi Arabia exports wheat, dates, dairy products, eggs, fish, poultry, fruits, vegetables and flowers to markets around the world. Dates, once a staple of the Saudi diet, are now mainly grown for global humanitarian aid. ... As a result, there has been a phenomenal growth in t…

I would speculate that most of what SA exports is heavily subsidized and unprofitable. Dates flourish in the Arabian desert around an oasis. Where are they getting the water for the dates and water for milch for dairy, ...?

Probably desalination plants run on Oil.

I am sure they can keep doing this but this is not a natural extension of any of their strengths. Their labor is over priced and mostly imported south asians, overburdened by heavy bureaucracy and lacking in the inputs of production.

Would you open a dairy farm in Namibia? If they really have to tighten their belts they will have to cut down on all these "extra-curricular" economic activities.

Re: Saudi stocks slump as minister warns of ‘painful’ measures ahead

#64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm an Iranian who moved to the U.S. only a few years ago. Something most people here in the U.S. don't understand is that countries like Iran have a far different threshold of pain. Iran, as a result of sanctions had already entered starvation-levels of economic collapse. There are people who are sleeping in open graves. Yet, the regime is not backing down in any way. It hasn't change course at all.

Hi Emil. I just wanted to tell you I had a burst of nostalgia when I noticed your username. I got interested in computers and software browsing TechnoTux forums and trying (and failing) to install Parsix. I really appreciate the work you did on open source software and bringing them to Farsi speakers. I wish you the best wherever you are.

Oh a fellow Technotux member! I also burst into nostalgia reading your comment. I'm glad I was able to help. I Wish the same for you.

Re: Saudi stocks slump as minister warns of ‘painful’ measures ahead

#65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Saudi budget is a quarter of a trillion dollars. “Trillions” doesn’t last very long at those levels.

Sounds like at least 4-5 years.

+ increased borrowing costs as the deficits begin to worry investors.

Re: Saudi stocks slump as minister warns of ‘painful’ measures ahead

#66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Needed, past tense. US foreign policy used to be shaped around our need for Saudi oil, and IMO hasn’t properly adjusted to the fact that America is energy independent again. The realpolitik question now isn’t “how can I secure Saudi oil” But rather “what’s the least I can do to reduce any risk of terrorism”.

> US foreign policy used to be shaped around our need for Saudi oil US foreign policy is shaped around making sure the whole region remains in conflict. That allows for more weapons sales, cheaper oil due to infighting, and excuses to intervene and have the military there.

America no longer wants cheap oil; it crowds out the natively produced stuff. Gasoline is currently increase the cost of oil.

I don't think that everyone has fully grasped how America being energy independent changes the game.

Re: Saudi stocks slump as minister warns of ‘painful’ measures ahead

#67
I have always believed in half-jest/half-seriousness that the big mistake the US made in the first Gulf war was to attack Saddam instead of sending him a TomTom GPS with directions to Riyadh from Kuwait. Imagine, no 9/11, no ISIS.

The Saudi regime is one of the worst things to happen in the history of the world to Muslims and the rest of the world. Middle Eastern culture threw up people like Averroes (father or modern rationalism), Avicenna and Ibn Khaldun. I speculate but pretty sure that the Middle East produce less scientific literature than Taiwan. Saudi Regime driven Wahabism has turned Islam back by centuries aspiring to a regressive state of the 6th century with about 20% of the population radicalized. Women recently got the right to drive in SA, we can just imagine the state of other rights. Wahabism other effect is on radicalization of other regimes like Turkey and Iran. The Turks were relatively progressive people but to compete with the Saudis for global leadership of all Muslims, Ergodan has pushed further and further towards conservative political Islam. The Islamic population of Indonesia and Malyasia was once moderate, tolerant and dynamic. Now after 20 years of Wahabi indoctrination they are bombing churches.

For all of Elon's bizarre views, repugnant and quixotic, his contribution to the electrification of transport alone warrants a Nobel Peace Prize (and any other prize we can give him).

The Al-Sauds are probably too entrenched in the political and economic fabric of the world to go anywhere for a couple of decades. The US establishment has enough of their skin in its own game to shield them and also in fear of what comes next. Oil Prices permanently collapsing to a sub $20 level will not end the Saudi regime but reduce its appetite for extra-curricular activities.

Re: Saudi stocks slump as minister warns of ‘painful’ measures ahead

#68

I have always believed in half-jest/half-seriousness that the big mistake the US made in the first Gulf war was to attack Saddam instead of sending him a TomTom GPS with directions to Riyadh from Kuwait. Imagine, no 9/11, no ISIS. The Saudi regime is one of the worst things to happen in the history of the world to Muslims and the rest of the world. Middle Eastern culture threw up people like Averroes (father or moder…

I think the moment anyone decides on a violent regime change... it's a roll of the dice.

People rightfully take issue with US involvement in some regime changes... but it seems many of those people have their own plans that seem no more likely to result in a positive outcome.

Re: Saudi stocks slump as minister warns of ‘painful’ measures ahead

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Needed, past tense. US foreign policy used to be shaped around our need for Saudi oil, and IMO hasn’t properly adjusted to the fact that America is energy independent again. The realpolitik question now isn’t “how can I secure Saudi oil” But rather “what’s the least I can do to reduce any risk of terrorism”.

The US "was" energy independent. But now all the US oil drillers are shutting down. The same factors hurting Saudi are hurting oil in the US.

The US oil business has always been boom or bust.

After prices rise the oil will still be there.

Re: Saudi stocks slump as minister warns of ‘painful’ measures ahead

#70
post #68

I have always believed in half-jest/half-seriousness that the big mistake the US made in the first Gulf war was to attack Saddam instead of sending him a TomTom GPS with directions to Riyadh from Kuwait. Imagine, no 9/11, no ISIS. The Saudi regime is one of the worst things to happen in the history of the world to Muslims and the rest of the world. Middle Eastern culture threw up people like Averroes (father or moder…

I think the moment anyone decides on a violent regime change... it's a roll of the dice. People rightfully take issue with US involvement in some regime changes... but it seems many of those people have their own plans that seem no more likely to result in a positive outcome.

I could not agree more.

The second gulf war led to ISIS and the rise of the Quds force and the general destruction of society in Iraq/Syria. ISIS is an an existential danger to the world as asymmetrical warfare can have high-impact outcomes beyond our imagination. In comparison, Saddam's Bath party was secular socialists.

Libyan intervention led to the disintegration of a stable and despotic regime but today there are slave markets in Libya!

Our best hope is that the Saudi regime shrivels and withers away but undoing 50 years of Wahabism will take hundreds of years.

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